Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

Ok, this is getting really ugly for VW and Audi right now: VW admits allegations
[...]
Up till now I expected German speaking media to simply totally ignore this issue.
But media is currently starting to report on this fraud.
Here is an article about this fraud in one of Germany's most read newspapers, Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Google translate).
With international auto show IAA currnetly in Frankfurt, Germany and all eyes from media on big auto currently in Germany this and next week it seems like this is going to expolde next week.
Now I expect this article to be placed somewhere on the first page on Monday, and not only at Sueddeutsche Zeitung, it will be all over the place.

Update:
VW and Audi immediately (this Monday) stopping sales of fraud-vehicles in the US.
Yesterday (Sunday evening) every news in German television reported about this fraud.
Today, no longer third headline in the news papers but first headline all over the place, just take a look at most read and well renowned Spiegel (Google translate), Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Google translate) or Frankfurter Allgemeine (Google translate):

First people like Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from CAR-Institute at Universität Duisburg-Essen call for Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn withdrawl as this fraud puts the Diesel Strategy of all German car maker in the US at risk (link, Google translate, at 01:10 in the video):

Winterkorn, in his responsability for Volkswagen group-wide research and development, either knew about the manipulation or he was unaware of the manipulation and did not have his business under control. In both cases, I would say that Winterkorn in the management team is no longer acceptable.

Volkswagen stock currently down >-21% after a bad day already last Friday (Frankfurt), the lowest since 2012.
This decline in share price from today translates to a loss in market cap of more than 12 Billion Euros.
There is some support area at the current SP levels, if this support is broken, SP could decline further.
The 18 Billion penalty would translate to a -35Euros share price.

Porsche down currently about 17% (link).
Daimler down currently about 3% (link).
Continental down currently about 5% (link).
BMW down currently about 2% (link).
Audi down currently about 5% (link).

And this is only the beginning of the week.
During this weeks international auto show IAA in Frankfurt there will be a lot of media attention on anything about cars!

 

[mrdoubleb]

First people call for Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn withdrawl as this fraud puts the Diesel Strategy of all German car maker in the US at risk (link).

I just read he contract was to be renewed by the board in 4 days (!) on the 25th... ouch.

 

[jhm]

So the market cap for Volkswagen has fallen 21% to 23.17B EUR or 26.1B USD. This implies a market last week of about 33B USD. A penalty of 18B USD should imply a 45% decline in value. Moreover, Volkswagen is subject to much more reputational damage, litigation from or compensation to customers and dealers, and perhaps other regulatory findings. So the total impact on Volkswagen could be in excess of its prior market cap. So on the face of it a 21% decline today seems quite mild and does not come close to pricing in the damage done.

The bond market and preferred stock market should also weigh in on this. This should be a blood bath.

Fantasy scenario: Volkswagen goes bankrupt. Tesla acquires for a song.

 

[Hogfighter]

There are good catalysts for a rise in the short-term.

1) the VW scandal pulls the curtain back on 'clean diesel'. It's gonna kill the momentum in the U.S.

2) USA today has an article on the Mirai, and isn't very kind.

3) Model X coming out next week. My belief is that Tesla doesn't want a big event because they don't want to see any Osborne effect, which means they believe that the X is seriously cool.

Best of luck to all!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

German DAX currently up +0.3% despite all these auto related stocks in the DAX are down (link).

BTW sorry again for exhaust fraud topic mention in short term thread.
The important note is: Other auto stocks are down big time today, TSLA is not, it is important to know the cause for that difference.
BTW2 I have the impression this is still the beginning, other car manufacturers, other models, other model years, other ways to cheat, other agencies from different countries are still to come.

 

[AlMc]

German DAX currently up +0.3% despite all these auto related stocks in the DAX are down (link).

BTW sorry again for exhaust fraud topic mention in short term thread.
The important note is: Other auto stocks are down big time today, TSLA is not, it is important to know the cause for that difference.
BTW2 I have the impression this is still the beginning, other car manufacturers, other models, other model years, other ways to cheat, other agencies from different countries are still to come.

No apology needed. This information is important, IMO, as it affects the STprice of TSLA.

 

[32no]

So the market cap for Volkswagen has fallen 21% to 23.17B EUR or 26.1B USD. This implies a market last week of about 33B USD. A penalty of 18B USD should imply a 45% decline in value. Moreover, Volkswagen is subject to much more reputational damage, litigation from or compensation to customers and dealers, and perhaps other regulatory findings. So the total impact on Volkswagen could be in excess of its prior market cap. So on the face of it a 21% decline today seems quite mild and does not come close to pricing in the damage done.

The bond market and preferred stock market should also weigh in on this. This should be a blood bath.

Fantasy scenario: Volkswagen goes bankrupt. Tesla acquires for a song.

Volkwagen's Market Cap was $87 billion before the fall this morning, now it is around $60 billion.

 

[WarpedOne]

Fantasy scenario: Volkswagen goes bankrupt. Tesla acquires for a song.

That fantasy may sound fantastic but when one impossible thing happens, other impossible things may happen also.

Which ICE maker would want to associate with VW name? Price cannot be good enough for them, to endure the risk.
Tesla on the other hand could buy it with zero harm, it may even generate additional positive credo.

I'm not writing off *any* option.
"This is big" does not even start to describe the volume of this pile...

 

[jhm]

Volkwagen's Market Cap was $87 billion before the fall this morning, now it is around $60 billion.

I got the 23B EUR market cap from the Frankfurt Exchange: Brse Frankfurt

Isn't VLKPY an ADR? It may be including preferred shares with the total market capitalization. Common stock shares will fair the worst in the face of an extreme loss like this.

 

[Drax7]

I got the 23B EUR market cap from the Frankfurt Exchange: Brse Frankfurt

- - - Updated - - -



I got the 23B EUR market cap from the Frankfurt Exchange: Brse Frankfurt

VW is oversold, not that I am buying now or ever.
500,000 cars @ $50,000 per car = $25 billion

these cars have some value somewhere

 

[dalalsid]

VW is oversold, not that I am buying now or ever.
500,000 cars @ $50,000 per car = $25 billion

these cars have some value somewhere

I highly doubt this is going to be limited to 500k cars. There is already a stop sale on 2015 cars. The investigations will spread to other countries. 500k is just the start in the US.

Update: Already started with Korea: S. Korea to test emissions of Volkswagen cars

 

[gene]

So the market cap for Volkswagen has fallen 21% to 23.17B EUR or 26.1B USD. This implies a market last week of about 33B USD. A penalty of 18B USD should imply a 45% decline in value. Moreover, Volkswagen is subject to much more reputational damage, litigation from or compensation to customers and dealers, and perhaps other regulatory findings. So the total impact on Volkswagen could be in excess of its prior market cap. So on the face of it a 21% decline today seems quite mild and does not come close to pricing in the damage done.

The bond market and preferred stock market should also weigh in on this. This should be a blood bath.

Fantasy scenario: Volkswagen goes bankrupt. Tesla acquires for a song.

Even if VW survives this storm, they will loose a huge amount of future sales due to customers loss of confidence. I bought my son a Jetta TDI in 2010 as his first car exactly because it gets 50 mpg and was "clean". It was a $5000 premium over the other cars we considered. I feel angry and cheated. Until this point I had been considering the eGolf for my wife. Will I ever buy another VW again? No, I won't, not even an eGolf.

All car companies count on loyal repeat customers. I joined the VW TDI Forums yesterday just to see what the TDI fanboys had to say about this? I expected the VW fanboys to be defensive of VW but no, a great majority of them are very angry and will likely leave the VW fold.

 

[mrdoubleb]

That fantasy may sound fantastic but when one impossible thing happens, other impossible things may happen also.

Which ICE maker would want to associate with VW name? Price cannot be good enough for them, to endure the risk.
Tesla on the other hand could buy it with zero harm, it may even generate additional positive credo.

I'm not writing off *any* option.
"This is big" does not even start to describe the volume of this pile...

I wouldn't`t be too excited about Tesla acquiring any existing ICE manufacturers - especially ones we have here in Europe. No offense to our German friends here, but I am sure they would agree the unions in Germany`s auto sector have a pretty strong hold on that industry to the point such an acquisition could mean locking Tesla in to previous agreements, limit the ability to transform the business. If I were Tesla I would go green filed...

- - - Updated - - -

Even if VW survives this storm, they will loose a huge amount of future sales due to customers loss of confidence. I bought my son a Jetta TDI in 2010 as his first car exactly because it gets 50 mpg and was "clean". It was a $5000 premium over the other cars we considered. I feel angry and cheated. Until this point I had been considering the eGolf for my wife. Will I ever buy another VW again? No, I won't, not even an eGolf.

All car companies count on loyal repeat customers. I joined the VW TDI Forums yesterday just to see what the TDI fanboys had to say about this? I expected the VW fanboys to be defensive of VW but no, a great majority of them are very angry and will likely leave the VW fold.

VW will survive this for sure, but the financial toll will be huge especially if other governments and regions find similar evidence. While they will not close shop, in my opinion this will impact their financial possibilities through the next 2-5 years - less money for marketing, R&D, and may even mean they will have to pull the plug on struggling programs like the VW Phaeton or the Seat brand as a whole. I just read today that Audi is just a couple of signatures from getting in to Formula 1 from 2018.... those signatures may stay out of reach if they get short on money.

 

[gene]

Damn, I empathize with the VW retail investors. They must feel easily as cheated, and may have lost more money, than those who bought TDI's. VW will be hit by lawsuits by investors as well as customers.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Important day for TSLA as the stock matures in a way that markets realize how different Tesla Motors is to ICE manufacturers.
SP movement decoupling from other auto stocks today, nice.

 

[Hogfighter]

I'm waiting this year. I bought 17's as soon as they were available and paid a premium for them because their volume was so thin.

Do you happen to remember the time premium? Right now the time premium for ATM Jan '17 calls are just under 50.

 

[ZenMan]

Looks like there will be a reveal event. (There was some speculation that there would be no event September 29th):

 

[hockeythug]

Looks like there will be a reveal event. (There was some speculation that there would be no event September 29th):

Hopefully this settles down the Model X section.

 

[austinEV]

Emissions-gate puts seatgate into perspective doesn't it...

Glad to see an event is happening!

 

[Bgarret]

+ $7 and still not a whisper about X invites in press or on stock twits.