Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Lump]

Baird analyst Ben Kallo downgraded Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $282.00 (from $335.00), saying they are moving to the sidelines as the Model X ramps.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Baird+Downgrades+Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+to+Neutral%3B+Moving+to+Sidelines+as+Model+X+Ramps/10952941.html

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

In a way its a good thing analysts are being very clear that they are not pricing in a "successful" launch by analysis's standards, of the Model X or Model 3, but are maintaining their $300-$500 price targets. This gives analysts a lot of room to upgrade the stock, should any new catalysts emerge. Eying January calls on any significant divergent weakness. This November will prove to be a huge catalyst.

If India or China, announces significant support for Tesla this week, I'm expecting a huge rally, since no-one is expecting Tesla to begin expanding into Asia for a while.

 

[Blvr888]

BTW do others here have similar experiences with friends/colleagues at work who short TSLA while not knowing anything about EVs/Tesla Motors/financial news/product news/international news?

I have to admit that I know quite a lot of them here in Germany and I am always speechless on how easy these people put their money at risk.

I'm making the same experience. I think, Germans are still in the self-denial phase regarding EV's and Tesla, in particular. Highly conservative (not to say backward) - mentality combined with domestic automotive tradition is a dangerous mix these days. Absence of speed limits on the motorway doesn't help either :smile:

 

[Drax7]

Indian factory, in my view , that is so far ahead its not material ,
In the order of Martian colonization

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Today I am looking for that $235/236 area and for a bounce there.
Either we get that and a tripple bottom or I see some more downside below that level.

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Indian factory, in my view , that is so far ahead its not material ,
In the order of Martian colonization

I agree.

My point of view is that with 100% import duties on vehicles it would make sense to build a factory there.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I would have never in a million years guessed TSLA would be under $240 a week after a "successful" Model X launch.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I would have never in a million years guessed TSLA would be under $240 a week after a "successful" Model X launch.

Same here.

Just like some articles currently say Model X is too expensive.
And only some weeks ago some articles read that Model S is too cheap.

 

[phigment]

I would have never in a million years guessed TSLA would be under $240 a week after a "successful" Model X launch.

Ditto. But I bet getting a few sig deliveries out would have helped alleviate production concerns.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

General Motors stock is where you want to be if you are interested in making money at the moment.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I would have never in a million years guessed TSLA would be under $240 a week after a "successful" Model X launch.

I think the interesting thing is that analysts are either oblivious about or are choosing to ignore how much the Model X costs, and the fact that with its performance and safety features, it competes with vehicles that costs in excess of $500,000. $70,000 -$100,000 is not a lot for the safest SUV on the road, that will depreciate very slowly. The average price of an SUV in the United States before taxes is $40,000 -$50,000. In China, the average price is probably closer to $100,000, before taxes and registration fees.

A $100,000 Model X will be worth a minimum of $60,000 - $70,000 in 2-3 years, irrespective of the milage. Can that be said about any other $100,000 SUV?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

General Motors stock is where you want to be if you are interested in making money at the moment.

No thank's I do not know enough about GM.
Have fun!

 

[Krugerrand]

This is what we call a setup.

 

[theschnell]

General Motors stock is where you want to be if you are interested in making money at the moment.

GM has gone nowhere for the past 5 years. What makes you think its different now? It might be, but it might not be. I have no idea. But I would buy Apple way before I bought GM. Same PE and much better growth prospects, IMO. FWIW, I don't own either name, but I am considering moving into Apple, as I'm interested in their car development prospects. I think they could come up with an excellent car.

I think you bailed on TSLA, assuming you've bailed, at the wrong time. I believe we are on the cusp of a significant upswing. I will be shocked if 12 months from now, the stock is not up at least 50%.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well I started expecting this once I saw there were only 6 cars delivered and no delivery dates have been given to Model X Sig reservations. For my strategy this could work out well if the bears beat it up enough but either way Model X production will happen and so will positive cash flow. Don't forget they have a CO on the Gigafactory pilot plant so it seems they are on track for shipping Powerpacks and Powerwalls on schedule.

 

[theschnell]

Based on what? The pricing is $5k over comparable Model S configurations, but we have not seen what the gross margin is on this.

We simply have people speculating that if is was difficult to engineer then it must remain costly to manufacture. This does not follow. Once you program a robot to perform a task, it does not demand higher pay because the task was difficult to program. We should not conflated the cost of R&D with the cost of manufacturing.

Of course, investors are free to speculate however they wish, but at this point I don't see any data on the actual cost to make the Model X.

You make a good point. I think to make my point differently, even just the R&D and manufacturing setup (programming robots to perform complex tasks especially) are high enough that if actually spread out over MX production, would take a long time before it would only cost 5K per vehicle. However, it is speculation on my part, and also, I believe the additional marketing and the additional functionality of the vehicle make the FwDs a worthwhile effort. I just feel that TESLA is not charging enough at only $5k per car. But if the the ASP of the X is well over $100K for the first 25,000 units, which I believe is a definite possibility, than I think it will have all been worth it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Using a regular windshield, and doors and seats etc. and more common parts with model S would have been just as good
and way easier to manufacture.

Maybe it would have been just as good. Maybe not. But that doesn't answer my question, instead it makes the 5k base price cost difference look like people are getting even more for that money. Awesome deal is what it looks like now.

Definitely. For sure had they stuck with bland, tried and true doors, windows and seats manufacturing would have been way easier. But then we wouldn't be on a Tesla forum, we'd be on some other OEM forum talking about some insignificant incremental improvement to a century's old technology and trying to make it sound like it's the next best thing since sliced bread.

The Models S already scores 103 out of 100, why try to exceed perfection at a huge cost
of time and manufacturing .

Because this is Tesla and that's what they do. Because the Model S was so successful that they COULD do the X the way they wanted and everything else be damned.

Until this perception is proven otherwise, I am afraid .
This may be just me , maybe I am being irrational , and the market thinks otherwise.

Afraid of what? Afraid nobody will buy the X? Afraid that there will be a delay in the world at large (analysts, media, investors, consumers...) not understanding what just happened? Or afraid of a short term stock decline? Or afraid this is the end of Tesla?

 

[Hogfighter]

Lots of negative articles out lately. Tesla is hurting themselves by not commenting on Sig deliveries. Wall Street doesn't care about long term prospects....they want a good quarter.

 

[pGo]

Lots of negative articles out lately. Tesla is hurting themselves by not commenting on Sig deliveries. Wall Street doesn't care about long term prospects....they want a good quarter.

A few owners have been told that only Sigs will be delivered. Not sure how valid is this, but that's the only data we have so far. It has been over 37 days since the very first Sigs were invited to configure. With this info, I think 2000 MX delivery this year is becoming optimistic.

 

[farzyness]

Tremendous buying opportunity for shorts and longs. Stationary storage business is completely being ignored as a massive revenue stream. Once reviews of X start flowing in, Tesla is going to be a massive force to be reckoned with in the Luxury car and SUV/CUV market, to the point where certain car makers (Land Rover, Porsche, Jaguar, etc.) are going to start facing some very real and serious pressure to shore up their very real losses.

--

EDIT: Not to mention the incredible amount of reservations Tesla will see once they unveil Model 3.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

They are wounding themselves short-term to recover even stronger long-term. I think waht Krugerrand implies here is important, too. They didn't want to build the best electric SUV on the market, a mere copy of the Model S, but they wanted to build the best SUV on the market and thereby demonstrate their ability to innovate on every new Tesla product.

In many respects, Model X is exceptionally innovative, but I don't think Tesla built the "best SUV on the market". In terms of towing and long/large cargo carrying, Model X is unremarkable in the former and arguably deficient in the latter due to the lack of 2nd row folding seats.

The big unknown is whether this will matter in terms of sales. We won't know for sure until Model X production ramps up. We may never know, because Tesla's quick iteration in product development means it is entirely possible that they will have a folding 2nd row option long before demand becomes an issue.