Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Lessmog]

This was my first thought upon hearing his comment that the model X was too expensive. It just makes no sense. This manipulation feels so blatant that I wonder if Tesla should dissociate with them if they have to do any future capital raises. It's one thing to change your price target, but calling the model X too expensive makes absolutely no sense. If Tesla can sell the vehicles for a higher price, and prioritize the higher ASP sales, that is exactly what investors want. It just reeks of manipulation, helping your clients get in cheaper. I don't think that is why we have analysts, to make pie in the sky valuations when on the sell-side, and then pile on when the stock is weak to buy back in cheap, or so that your clients can buy cheaper.

The biggest risk to those comments is that some reservation holders start to wonder if it really is too expensive and decide to defer to cheaper models available later. In other words, those comments may not be end up being just a bear trap, they might actually damage the company financially. That, in combination with what feels like manipulation, is why I find those comments so offensive.

Agreed.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

other note:

Incentives for Electric Vehicles are being increased, not decreased. Also, I guess Jonas forgot to look at how much a luxury SUV costs in Europe and in Asia. I think the average price for a luxury SUV, with specifications far below what the Model X offers, after taxes and fees is around $100,000.

Tesla Model X SUV Price Is Fair Bargain For Luxury - Bloomberg Business

According to Edmunds.com, the average transaction price for a large mainstream SUV is $52,497—$20,000 higher than a large sedan—and $82,900 for luxury rigs such as the Cadillac Escalade.

You Wouldnt Believe What A BMW Costs In China

WTF? A Range Rover Costs How Much In China?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is that “Overweight” Rating from Global Equities Research new?!
Looks like that is from last Thursday, isn't it?!

 

[Scott Ales]

Yup, I think my Jan. 16 $280 calls are toast.

So it goes.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Intraday double bottom at $235/$236?
Or bull trap?

Let's see if we can hop over the $238.75 resistance.

Knocking at resistance now.

Everybody with half a brain in the right half of his head and half a brain in the left half of his head knows how to interpret this most recent Jonas note.
Jonas has done similar funny upgrades/downgrades before (bullish and bearish).
Jonas is now overweight with a PT of $450 on TSLA.

 

[Lessmog]

Yup, I think my Jan. 16 $280 calls are toast.

So it goes.

Are we there yet?

 

[MartinAustin]

CNBC Najarian dude just agreed that the miniscule drop in Adam Jonas' price target, from ludicrously high to insanely high, ought to mean nothing to TSLA. He recommends buying on this 4% dip.

 

[jhm]

CNBC Najarian dude just agreed that the miniscule drop in Adam Jonas' price target, from ludicrously high to insanely high, ought to mean nothing to TSLA. He recommends buying on this 4% dip.

Yep, both targets are too high. If over the next 12 months the price touched $450, we'd have Musk telling everyone that it's overvalued.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla, UNLV to announce battery manufacturing research partnership

UNLV President Len Jessup is scheduled to join a Tesla vice president and Gov. Brian Sandoval for an announcement ceremony on Wednesday at UNLV's campus.

 

[sub]

This was my first thought upon hearing his comment that the model X was too expensive. It just makes no sense. This manipulation feels so blatant that I wonder if Tesla should dissociate with them if they have to do any future capital raises. It's one thing to change your price target, but calling the model X too expensive makes absolutely no sense. If Tesla can sell the vehicles for a higher price, and prioritize the higher ASP sales, that is exactly what investors want. It just reeks of manipulation, helping your clients get in cheaper. I don't think that is why we have analysts, to make pie in the sky valuations when on the sell-side, and then pile on when the stock is weak to buy back in cheap, or so that your clients can buy cheaper.

The biggest risk to those comments is that some reservation holders start to wonder if it really is too expensive and decide to defer to cheaper models available later. In other words, those comments may not be end up being just a bear trap, they might actually damage the company financially. That, in combination with what feels like manipulation, is why I find those comments so offensive.

I have more faith in people than that, especially those that are intelligent enough to accumulate enough money to buy a Model X. I've said this before, If I were Jonas or some of these other analyst I could not sit at my desk writing the drivel they put out sometimes knowing it's intended purpose without getting a chuckle, while at the same time being a bit embarrassed. The price movements based on their reports have no affect on me, If I had more cash available I would be taking advantage of the movement rather than panic selling which is what they are hoping for. Don't give them your money.

 

[FredTMC]

Hi FredTMC,

yes ok thanks, 1 assembly, 2 robotic weld .

Question FredTMC, are weld robots flexible or fixed per car type?

If model x is slow, can new weld line work on model s?
Such that model s production can increase and make up for slower model x.

may have already been answered by someone else but here it goes. It's really interesting:

the old Body Line (body line 1) produces Model S cars and will continue to do so till model 3

the New Body Line (body line 2) will produce Model X cars (body in white)

so, we've got too separate robotic weld lines producing two cars in parallel!

my understanding is that eventually Body Line 2 will produce MX AND MS. The existing Body Line 1 will eveually be retired and that space will be utilized for a new Model 3 body line. Per Elons tweet a while ago, the new Body Line 2 producing MX is more efficient than body line 1.

 

[Bobbyducati]

its fighting hard against the nasdaq to break 240... cmon tsla!

 

[larmor]

I think that the design studio not being opened speaks volumes about demand... If it were opened and more orders requested, people would get impatient. Isnt MX wait time through mid 2016...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I think that the design studio not being opened speaks volumes about demand... If it were opened and more orders requested, people would get impatient. Isnt MX wait time through mid 2016...

Precisely. My bet is Tesla doesn't want to reveal the other options, until it has worked through the backlog, or until Elon wants to reveal how many reservations Tesla has received since the release.

Based on the few thousand people in line for the Model X event, I'd bet Tesla is seeing annual demand for far more than 20,000 Model X. In many places, a $100,000 Model X costs the same as a $40,000 SUV, and is 10x better than its closest competitor.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Model S Refresh Not Happening

Not happening, according to Khobi Brooklyn, Tesla's communications manager. "We don't have plans for retooling Model S at the moment," Brooklyn told me in an email.

 

[CyberDutchie]

This time I think Adam Jonas' note actually is making sense. Yes, he is conservative and when he reruns his financial model based on expectation of a slower ramp, higher ASP's, and therefore lowered sales outlook, his target comes out a little lower. But with $450 still at the high end of the pack!

I don't read anything wrong in the note, except perhaps a statement where he says it took Tesla nearly 3 years to get to lowest trim level with the Model S 70D at $75K. He forgot about the 60.

 

[eepic]

RBC has initiated coverage on TSLA, rated new sector perform PT $280

 

[FredTMC]

RBC has initiated coverage on TSLA, rated new sector perform PT $280

Wow. Nice

- - - Updated - - -

This time I think Adam Jonas' note actually is making sense. Yes, he is conservative and when he reruns his financial model based on expectation of a slower ramp, higher ASP's, and therefore lowered sales outlook, his target comes out a little lower. But with $450 still at the high end of the pack!

I don't read anything wrong in the note, except perhaps a statement where he says it took Tesla nearly 3 years to get to lowest trim level with the Model S 70D at $75K. He forgot about the 60.

Yeah. He missed the 60 battery! What the heck? Someone needs to call him out that. I got my 60 four months after production cars started getting delivered.

 

[vankie]

AJ is intentionally wrong this time.
1. Why is he wrong? Because not announcing a lower trim until a later time is a decision, not a limitation. It is a price discrimination play where Tesla will not introduce lower trims (hence lower margin) until productions ramps beyond top trim backlog. In other words, serve the 1% first because those orders are the most lucrative. Tesla won't say this because that will may cause a PR disaster just a few months prior to the supposedly more 99%-friendly Model 3 unveiling.
2. Why do I think his miss is intentional? Because he knows Tesla all too well, probably better than any of us on this board.
3. Why does he come out to be intentionally wrong at this point? I have no idea and don't want to speculate.

 

[RobStark]

more 99%-friendly Model 3 unveiling.

Lets get real; Model 3 is for the 33%ers inside the industrialized countries.

From a global POV Model 3 is for the 3%ers.