Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[danielp]

Main problems with the Bolt idea is:

1) It is a mini-car
2) It is a butt-ugly mini-car

... And I think no plans for RHD.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla has to handle this situation very smartly. Reputation issues can take a long time to offset, and
tesla cannot afford that. I await their response to this event.

Love for the car experience has to offset any inconvenience whatsoever.
and the inconvenience if any has to be negligible.

 

[dha]

People on this fourm need to stop attacking those that present a valid viewpoint. I believe that these high flying targets of $350 $450 etc. are reddiculous. Remember the mission of Tesla is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" not "be the largest, most profitable car company in the world". Technically if all the big car makers recognize the risk of Tesla and ramp up fast enough that Tesla never takes over the world, Tesla is still considered successful but $TSLA will look like a ****** investment which won't move out of its current trading range for a decade.

It is posts like this that lead me to believe share price drives sentiment far more than sentiment drives share price. I don't know how anybody could follow this company closely over the past few years and believe that credible competition is any less than 3 or 4 years away at the absolute earliest. Tesla has only been widening the technological gap between itself and other automakers.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla has to handle this situation very smartly. Reputation issues can take a long time to offset, and
tesla cannot afford that. I await their response to this event.

I think they already responded:

Consumer Reports also found that customers rate Tesla service and loyalty as the best in the world. Close communication with our customers enables Tesla to receive input, proactively address issues, and quickly fix problems. Over-the-air software updates allow Tesla to diagnose and fix most bugs without the need to come in for service. In instances when hardware needs to be fixed, we strive to make it painless.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-responds-consumer-reports-model-183838264.html

 

[pGo]

Tesla Has Nothing to Fear But FOMO Itself - Bloomberg View

This article attributes Jonas BS target as FOMO (Fear of missing out). And I agree.

 

[mejojo]

People on this fourm need to stop attacking those that present a valid viewpoint.

You know who doesn't need to have that much attention paid to them? People who show up every month or five when things are not going so well with the SP.

Because they show up does NOT mean they have a valid viewpoint to present. If they did, they would have been here last month and last week.

 

[FredTMC]

Happy to see an analyst weigh in positively.

*Stifel Analyst Albertine Earlier Issued Late-Day Note Suggesting 'Many, If Not All' Consumer Reports Concerns Previously Brought Up, Addressed, Remedied by Co. Over Last Two to Three Years"

 

[Papafox]

I didnt know that model s was so unreliable?? are they exaggerating?

Just finished driving through 49 states and put 15,000 miles on my 2015 70D in the past 2 months. Only issue was a strange sound that was repaired in a few hours. This Tesla has been extremely reliable.

 

[pGo]

7racer, sig 171, has this to say:

"In other threads I got an email from my DS with a completion date of Nov 16th!! but he even said to take the date with a grain of salt, but still promising!!!"

Bonnie's Xcellent Adventure w/X Sig 2 - Config, Delivery, Roadtrip - Page 23

 

[mdemetri]

7racer, sig 171, has this to say:

"In other threads I got an email from my DS with a completion date of Nov 16th!! but he even said to take the date with a grain of salt, but still promising!!!"

If this is confirmed by Bonnie or others, I may just have to go in big on the stock tomorrow. I think this will drive the stock back up at least short term.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yikes. I step away from the forum for one trading session and everything blows up.

Today's price action is exactly why I continue to maintain that short-term trading is a losing game for the vast majority of small players. There are far too many things out of our control. I didn't foresee the Consumer Reports event, and I still don't entirely understand it, since the Model S earns good "Red" circles in the majority of vehicle systems, and the overall trend is upwards for newer vehicles.

People on this fourm need to stop attacking those that present a valid viewpoint. I believe that these high flying targets of $350 $450 etc. are reddiculous. Remember the mission of Tesla is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" not "be the largest, most profitable car company in the world". Technically if all the big car makers recognize the risk of Tesla and ramp up fast enough that Tesla never takes over the world, Tesla is still considered successful but $TSLA will look like a ****** investment which won't move out of its current trading range for a decade.

It is posts like this that lead me to believe share price drives sentiment far more than sentiment drives share price. I don't know how anybody could follow this company closely over the past few years and believe that credible competition is any less than 3 or 4 years away at the absolute earliest. Tesla has only been widening the technological gap between itself and other automakers.

I follow not only Tesla, but the automobile industry in general, and I agree with this. Tesla's technologies are not necessarily novel, but their implementations are generally superior to the competition. The moat is pretty wide:

• Mobile data connectivity: Nobody else has OTA firmware updates (even after 3 years), or a Driving Assist system that can receive updates and also provide feedback from which the entire car fleet can learn/improve.
• Batteries: Much has been claimed about Korean companies being able to scale up batteries. My response: where are their Gigafactories? A battery plant can't be built or scaled up dramatically overnight. The supply chain that feeds such a factory takes a lot of time to set up and expertise to run.
• System integration: Most automobiles are a mish-mash of numerous sub-systems designed by third party companies. This creates a barrier to having a car that can be easily updated via firmware push.
• Superchargers: Without a fast charging network, even a 250 mile EV will not be viable for a lot of long-distance travel. Tesla's network is large and growing. It would take years for competitors to install their own networks. There is a lot of regulatory and local ordinance headaches involved.
• Direct Sales: I have seen dealers comment on EVs, and they don't like them. They are terrified because over the long haul, EVs mean substantially less repair work for the service divisions at dealership. The dealers and their trade associations will fight the car makers over this.

As far as competing EVs, I see halfhearted sizzle and not much steak.

GM's Bolt is frankly a weirdmobile, and it won't have a long-distance network to support it. Toyota and Honda have thrown in with fuel cells. The Toyota Mirai is an ugly, slow POS. Honda's FCEV is futuristic and good looking, but there's no hydrogen network to support it. Fiat/Chrysler are mostly MIA in the alternatives. Volkswagen loves to publish glossy photos of concept cars that you can't buy. I hold out some hope that Nissan's next-generation LEAF will deliver the goods in the compact mainstream hatch space.

Tesla still has many challenges ahead, but I'm not seeing that any of the traditional "big players" really get it yet. I read Car & Driver, Motor Trend, Autoblog, Left Lane News, Edmunds, Automobile Magazine, and other publications. The industry wind just isn't blowing in the direction of EVs yet. The enthusiasm isn't there.

 

[FluxCap]

Yikes. I step away from the forum for one trading session and everything blows up.

Today's price action is exactly why I continue to maintain that short-term trading is a losing game for the vast majority of small players. There are far too many things out of our control. I didn't foresee the Consumer Reports event, and I still don't entirely understand it, since the Model S earns good "Red" circles in the majority of vehicle systems, and the overall trend is upwards for newer vehicles.





I follow not only Tesla, but the automobile industry in general, and I agree with this. Tesla's technologies are not necessarily novel, but their implementations are generally superior to the competition. The moat is pretty wide:

• Mobile data connectivity: Nobody else has OTA firmware updates (even after 3 years), or a Driving Assist system that can receive updates and also provide feedback from which the entire car fleet can learn/improve.
• Batteries: Much has been claimed about Korean companies being able to scale up batteries. My response: where are their Gigafactories? A battery plant can't be built or scaled up dramatically overnight. The supply chain that feeds such a factory takes a lot of time to set up and expertise to run.
• System integration: Most automobiles are a mish-mash of numerous sub-systems designed by third party companies. This creates a barrier to having a car that can be easily updated via firmware push.
• Superchargers: Without a fast charging network, even a 250 mile EV will not be viable for a lot of long-distance travel. Tesla's network is large and growing. It would take years for competitors to install their own networks. There is a lot of regulatory and local ordinance headaches involved.
• Direct Sales: I have seen dealers comment on EVs, and they don't like them. They are terrified because over the long haul, EVs mean substantially less repair work for the service divisions at dealership. The dealers and their trade associations will fight the car makers over this.

As far as competing EVs, I see halfhearted sizzle and not much steak.

GM's Bolt is frankly a weirdmobile, and it won't have a long-distance network to support it. Toyota and Honda have thrown in with fuel cells. The Toyota Mirai is an ugly, slow POS. Honda's FCEV is futuristic and good looking, but there's no hydrogen network to support it. Fiat/Chrysler are mostly MIA in the alternatives. Volkswagen loves to publish glossy photos of concept cars that you can't buy. I hold out some hope that Nissan's next-generation LEAF will deliver the goods in the compact mainstream hatch space.

Tesla still has many challenges ahead, but I'm not seeing that any of the traditional "big players" really get it yet. I read Car & Driver, Motor Trend, Autoblog, Left Lane News, Edmunds, Automobile Magazine, and other publications. The industry wind just isn't blowing in the direction of EVs yet. The enthusiasm isn't there.

Phenomenal post, thank you. Though this might belong in the Long-Term Fundamentals thread .

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Phenomenal post, thank you. Though this might belong in the Long-Term Fundamentals thread .

It probably does, but given that today's price action definitely caused losses and upset, I wanted to point out that there is no cause for immediate alarm.

With any stock, random bits of bad news can seemingly send shares down an endless spiral, and I've seen this happen numerous times over the past 2 decades. I attempt (with dubious effectiveness) to counter the "doom/gloom" that naturally occurs when portfolio values go down and things are uncertain. The herd or "hive mind" naturally leads people, and perhaps algorithms, to bail, but this is exactly the incorrect move.

As we've seen in the recent China stock market run up and correction, general human psychology is to buy buy buy when shares are up and it seems like traders can do no wrong, and sell sell sell when it is too late and everything has plummeted. Instinct is not our friend here. It is like boredom eating. People love to eat. If snack food is left out in my office, people will eat it, often regardless of whether they are hungry or not. This leads to a lot of consumption of junk food, which is not healthy in the long run. What kept cave people alive (eating when food was available, because food was scarce) does not work for modern humans.

Learning to recognize and act against psychology impulses is crucial to survive short term events like today.

I realize this is not easy.

 

[aznt1217]

Cars that CR scored worse for reliability.
Mercedes Benz S-Class
Chevrolet Corvette
Dodge Challenger
Mercedes Benz CLA
Infiniti Q50
Mercedes Benz C-Class
Acura TLX
Infinity QX60
Cadillac Escalade

Where's all the press? Tesla does need to do some damage control though. Just looking at my social media feeds... People just read the headline and that's it.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Cars that CR scored worse for reliability.
Mercedes Benz S-Class
Chevrolet Corvette
Dodge Challenger
Mercedes Benz CLA
Infiniti Q50
Mercedes Benz C-Class
Acura TLX
Infinity QX60
Cadillac Escalade

Where's all the press?

What do you mean, where is the press? It's busy writing about the Tesla killers!

 

[FredTMC]

Phenomenal post, thank you. Though this might belong in the Long-Term Fundamentals thread .

+1. Great post.

On a day like today, I like this post right here in the short term thread.

- - - Updated - - -

Cars that CR scored worse for reliability.
Mercedes Benz S-Class
Chevrolet Corvette
Dodge Challenger
Mercedes Benz CLA
Infiniti Q50
Mercedes Benz C-Class
Acura TLX
Infinity QX60
Cadillac Escalade

Where's all the press?

wow. Truly amazing list. Crazy that Merc S Class is less reliable. This list really puts things into perspective.

If anyone asks me about reliability I'll certainly mention that S-Class scored lower.

Acrua TLX too. Sheesh.

- - - Updated - - -

7racer, sig 171, has this to say:

"In other threads I got an email from my DS with a completion date of Nov 16th!! but he even said to take the date with a grain of salt, but still promising!!!"

 

[AlMc]

Phenomenal post, thank you. Though this might belong in the Long-Term Fundamentals thread .

It is a great post and needed on a day like today. So, moving back to short term; What are y'all doing tomorrow? Buy/Sell/stand pat/calls/puts? My answer: Standing pat.

Edit: I should define where I am standing pat: Core shares and a couple options (minimal) and a good amount of cash to deploy, but when

 

[FredTMC]

It is a great post and needed on a day like today. So, moving back to short term; What are y'all doing tomorrow? Buy/Sell/stand pat/calls/puts? My answer: Standing pat.

Standing pat (as usual)

 

[justthateasy]

It is a great post and needed on a day like today. So, moving back to short term; What are y'all doing tomorrow? Buy/Sell/stand pat/calls/puts? My answer: Standing pat.

Going to "Hulk Smash" something.

 

[mdemetri]

It is a great post and needed on a day like today. So, moving back to short term; What are y'all doing tomorrow? Buy/Sell/stand pat/calls/puts? My answer: Standing pat.

Well with evidence that the first batch of Sig X's will be delivered around mid-November, I may be a buyer tomorrow.