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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Scott Ales
Member
Here was my contribution to Elon's request for V7.1 upgrades.
Please make the horn sound if a car comes too close to my Model S when parked, unattended. A Ford truck hit mine the first day!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
This is very true statement. Some TSLA cheerleaders do fight for Tesla regardless true or false, day or night. LoL
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I think you still have good chance of profitability shorting at this level. But you missed the best short entry point, the 2nd day after Model X reveal. Many reasons for the recent big fall can be attributed to 09/29 night.
Of course. But we must be honest here : it expanded the market in a number of significant countries (Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands) also because this segment was unavailable for the public at large due to fiscal issues. So if we make extrapolations going forward we need to take into account the regulatory background. For example, we can't just simply say France is ten times as large as Norway so there is an untapped market of 40k model S's to be had there in the coming years.
No, Maoing, This is *not* a true statement. The comparison to other manufacturers, especially for high performance cars, are not an excuse, it is a fact significant for putting things into perspective. Regarding the pricing of the company, notwithstanding the cuteness of the phrase, the reason for the disparity is in Tesla's cutting edge innovation, high revenue growth and potential for disruption of multiple huge markets. There are no precedents like that in the history.
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My point is that MX/MS demand has potential to grow due to untapped demand from the high end premium market customers, who did not switch from the conventional cars in significant numbers yet. This group of consumers is much less sensitive (and in fact is accustomed) to the high price of vehicles like MS/MX.
My observation is that Tesla primarily increased the market for 80k+ cars. It didn't really take that much away. Those luxury car makers are not hurting, in fact they have the best quarters ever across the board and some even being at the end of a product cycle with new stuff that's going to come out of the pipeline in the coming quarters. This despite Tesla now being a really well known and an established product. This signals to me that those who can buy a 100k car without fiscal incentives (at least in Europe) are not necessarily replacing a Merc, they are at most adding a car to their garage and at worst not interested in Tesla. I don't buy the 'switching' potential. Those who would've switched, already switched. I am sure there are some but it wasn't material.
Maybe the X is different but the S clearly is not the product that dents existing 100k car sales. It's been out more than 3 years and it simply hasn't happened. It didn't happen once it was clear Tesla was more than a fad, it didn't happen when the SC network had volume, it didn't happen when the dual motors were introduced and it didn't happen with the battery refresh. Let's wait and see what the autopilot does but I am not betting on it. At all.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
As far as we know the issues mentioned by Consumer Reports are reported for the early production Model S vehicles.
Do you have information about the newer vehicles being affected disproportionally (your words above could imply this reasoning)?
Please share, or are these only your personal fears and feelings, thank's.
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Elon Musk tweet:
About 96% of the trip was done on Autopilot.
Media reporting:
CNET: Alex Roy claims coast-to-coast Tesla Autopilot record in 57 hours, 48 minutes
TransportEvolved: Just One Week After Autopilot Went Live, Self-Driving Model S Sets New Record in Coast-to-Coast Cannonball
InsideEVs: Tesla Model S Autopilots Itself Coast-To-Coast – Sets Two Records
BTW new figures out by a BMW official in Munich: BMW sold only about 16600 BEV i3 and less than 4000 $130000 hybrid i8 vehicles globally during the first three quarters this year.
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here is a bright idea to straighten out consumer report issues and verify what Elon said about defects being early models and have been fixed. Someone Open up a poll right here in TM forum for model S reliability issues mentioned by CR And sort by year purchased. This could put this issue to rest once and for all at least among forum users so we can focus on the real production ramp issue. Thoughts?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Breaking: VW admits issues with second diesel ICE EA288 Euro5 version (link)!
New information expected during next hours, news outlets currently reporting.
So far the solution for ICE engine EA189 suggested by Volkswagen Group is basically a combustion at lower temp, thus more fuel needed, more CO2 and less NOx. Will owners tolerate a decresed energy efficiency of their vehicles?
This could grow the number of vehicles affected significantly.
New information expected during next hours, news outlets currently reporting.
So far the solution for ICE engine EA189 suggested by Volkswagen Group is basically a combustion at lower temp, thus more fuel needed, more CO2 and less NOx. Will owners tolerate a decresed energy efficiency of their vehicles?
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
It very much looks like Model S has dented Porsche Panamera Sales and Lexus LS sales. Or is it random coincidence their sales nosedived when Model S was introduced?
Audi A8 and BMW 7 Series never had very high sales and seems to be more impacted by new S Class than Model S.
But no one really knows. Even market data by investment firms depends on buyers in this class telling the truth to interviewers.
But when your sales are falling in a growing market that is a bad sign.
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Ferrari is not a private company "going public."
Ferrari was part of Fiat Chrysler being spun off.
It is Fiat Chrysler than need funds and the Agnelli ( the founding family of Fiat) that for vanity reasons wants to maintain control of Ferrari even as new capital dilutes ownership in Fiat Chrysler. They are creating an ownership structure where they can control Ferrari even though owning much less than 50% of shares.
It's highly tenuous that Panamera sales 'nosedived'. They dipped down a full year after the S was introduced but that was because of a refresher coming out. On the other hand, Porsche introduced other models that went on to have record sales. If there was any canabalization I think it was rather from the new Porsche SUV models than from a Model S, just like the X will take some sales from the S. I don't really know Lexus well enough to make an educated guess. They are not that big over here anyway, LS is selling maybe 10 cars per year?
The fact no one really knows is just another sign that if the effect exists, it can't be that dramatic. If Tesla was really taking away significant numbers of high class car sales instead of growing the market, we should see it across the board both regional and with every car maker.
Yeah right , whatever .
There is nothing about what is wrong with tesla that is what is right cannot fix. Elon is brilliant enough
to overcome all this trivial stuff you bring up, get real.
Credit Suisse came out w a billish rating yesterday, but it's refreshing to see that the analyst hasn't been blindly bullish on the company forever. Check out his history, https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/dan-galves, he was back and forth between neutral and bullish for a bit
It is much simpler than an ICE... Because science. The problem with the CR reliability is there is no weighting scheme to each specific issue. For example, a screen freezing is a reliability issue that is weighted the same as an S class transmission failing. With the model S especially in the earlier years and for some reason a batch of 2014 models (made in 2013) had an issue with DU's making noises. The other problem is some of it is Tesla's fault for overzealous servicing. They'd replace a DU if they felt it was making noise.
The model X is the most difficult car to build because Tesla threw everything but the kitchen sink in. They had to make parts that didn't exist which is why it is claimed most difficult. This has been worked out because the R&D is done already.
Tesla Bull Long term investors need not worry (1+ years). TSLA short term (3 months) can definitely make some money, but set your stops. This stock is bipolar and short interest is incredibly high for a large cap with a lot of institutional investors.
Also I'm fine with CR showing their survey results, what I take issue with is other car makers get a free pass and the press fails to circulate the "... But 97% of the owners would buy their Model S again"
+1! Took the words out of my... keyboard.
Also, beside the DU replacements all of the other issues have nothing to do with the EV design being more simple. Door handles, squeaking sunroof, entertainment system - nothing to do with EV drivetrain.
On the other hand I believe the DU failures are overstated as well. Reading these forums, sure there were a number of DU failures - even multiple ones - at the beginning, but they also pro-actively replaced hundreds (or more?) of DUs once they uncovered the source of a harmless, but irritating noise for example. I remember when we read here at TMC that they shipped so many DUs to Norway for that reason. Is that the equivalent of an S class engine going bust in the middle of the highway? Sounds like the CR statistics thinks so.
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