Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[aznt1217]

What were you expecting that did not happen?

Yea, seriously. It's like... too much of his feelings are clouding his judgement. There's a huge back log of willing buyers and people want SUV's. Fact.

I'm not an SUV person so I knew I wasn't going to like a Model X regardless (even though I am warming up to it...), but I know it's the hottest segment in Autos so Tesla needs to grab it. Porsche is selling 150K+ SUV's and other big high performance players are getting in the game. That and the asian consumer wants SUV's both abroad and here. Get the money and use it to invest in Model 3. I'm all for it.

- - - Updated - - -

UBS Reiterates Sell on Tesla (TSLA) and Reduces PT to $190

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...Reduces+PT+to+$190/11019247.html?si_client=st

Thanks for the link. His concerns seem to be more on the energy storage side and strict cell costs as they are today. Granted, he has a point about installation costs, but the fact that it's comparable after factoring everything in is a good thing. He's also treating this as a mutually exclusive market which it absolutely is not. The pie is large and isn't even ready yet. The market is being created right now and everybody is just grabbing share. There's enough to go around for everyone and this will become increasingly more evident as time goes on with climate change (unfortunately).

 

[MitchJi]

I think you will be surprised to see how well the Model X sells.

Only problem is if Tesla can manufacture them fast enough and with good enough quality.

Yes, homerun.

The only problems are getting seats and windshields.

 

[larmor]

Short termer's: I will hazard to say that the ER, CC, and deliveries mean nothing. If you are in the market for an SUV, such as mercedes GL or presumably porsche cayenne, and you have a wife who really needs the merc right now, the only metric that matters is when can you get the car after seeing it. The stores are well located in malls... The only metric to figure out is when they will deploy MX to the stores and how long will it take to fill an order.

I'm sorry mercedes GL, your days are numbered at the very least, if not completely decimated with upcoming MX. I have not had a personal shopping/purchase experience with the cayenne, so I don't know too much about that car.

This is a short term viewpoint, since car purchases are emotional and rapid decisions, not an investment for years and years.

 

[Scott Ales]

Short termer's: I will hazard to say that the ER, CC, and deliveries mean nothing. If you are in the market for an SUV, such as mercedes GL or presumably porsche cayenne, and you have a wife who really needs the merc right now, the only metric that matters is when can you get the car after seeing it. The stores are well located in malls... The only metric to figure out is when they will deploy MX to the stores and how long will it take to fill an order.

I'm sorry mercedes GL, your days are numbered at the very least, if not completely decimated with upcoming MX. I have not had a personal shopping/purchase experience with the cayenne, so I don't know too much about that car.

This is a short term viewpoint, since car purchases are emotional and rapid decisions, not an investment for years and years.

Agreed, we have been driving a 2008 GL320 diesel day to day for the last two years and it has served us well. But the second our MX arrives next year I will not return to ICE ever again. Unless of course some financial crisis occurs in our household to force the issue. But even that would be temporary.

 

[MitchJi]

Here's the 2015 vintage of this thread to discuss short-term TSLA stock prices and the news driving those movements. Best wishes for a safe and prosperous New Year to all!

Hi Robert,

Can we please have something like a "bear case" thread where bears can post their arguments and others can respond? And can the moderators please start moving all of those posts to that thread? I want to allow everyone to express their opinions, and allow everyone who wants to to respond, but I don't want to have to continue to spend my time reading it.

Thanks!

 

[Blvr888]

Yes, I was wondering this too. The model X reveal pretty much was the same as the previous iterations of the Model X since 2012, except some features were better. There was even optional roof racks, optional towing, optional bike racks, etc. Falcon doors were the same and shown to function with sensors remarkably well. What was different than 2012 that was "bad"?

C'mon, everybody should know it by now - missing second-row folding seats :smile:

 

[farzyness]

Anyone else concerned that the market may react to TSLA in the same way they reacted with SCTY yesterday? I feel like the set up is similar.

 

[hoang51]

Anyone else concerned that the market may react to TSLA in the same way they reacted with SCTY yesterday? I feel like the set up is similar.

No, because demand for solar power is slowing down does not equate to Tesla Motors Model S/X not having enough demand.

 

[aznt1217]

Anyone else concerned that the market may react to TSLA in the same way they reacted with SCTY yesterday? I feel like the set up is similar.

Depends on the results obviously. SCTY has always been tricky because its business model is difficult to understand which has some "professionals" calling it a farce. There's also 43% short interest on it so there was a lot at stake for those who were placing bets against it.

For TSLA, they make cars but people want to see progress with the X because they extrapolate that with execution of Model 3 (although it makes no sense... this is what they do).

- - - Updated - - -

No, because demand for solar power is slowing down does not equate to Tesla Motors Model S/X not having enough demand.

To be clear, demand for solar power has not gone down. Guidance was lowered to better and more efficiently control the growth.

 

[FredTMC]

Seems that yesterday TSLA was down in AH in sympathy with SCTY. Then a magic buyer(s) came in at stock ended at $210.00

should be interesting into close today. $210 has been support

 

[Curt Renz]

It was the countdown clock to my Model S delivery. This link was introduced by a member (former member maybe?) back in the good old days when Tesla was first shipping model S's so we could count down to our delivery date. People who have been around since the early 2013 days probably remember this. Anyway, I think it stopped working a long, long time ago (probably over a year ago), and I have never gotten around to fixing it.

Thank you for the explanation. It appears you were the victim. Thanks for removing the link.

 

[phigment]

210 hasn't been showing a good intra day support so far today. :wink:

 

[Causalien]

No sellers remorse. I bought at $187.88 and sold at $255.00. Yes, I too am shocked at my complete reversal of love for this company. This is coming from somebody who sought out fellow Tesla owners, took a ride in the Model S before buying stock and have spent possibly hundreds of hours researching the stock.

My feelings changed upon the Model X reveal. It gives me indigestion.

I have come to the conclusion that alot of people are likely going to lose money on the stock.

I wish the longs success, but something stinks. I have a feeling earnings will reveal a real shocker. I hope I am wrong.

And no. I have no plans to ever re-enter this trade, no matter how low it drops.

I think GM would be a better trade.

This actually make sense more sense. My default assumption about oil rich calgariNs is that they should be supportin GM and not TSLA.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Better hope hedge funds are not loaded with Tesla. Valiant Pharma tanking big time. They will be forced to sell stock of all types.

 

[Drax7]

Better hope hedge funds are not loaded with Tesla. Valiant Pharma tanking big time. They will be forced to sell stock of all types.

Thank you for your expert advise

 

[Causalien]

Better hope hedge funds are not loaded with Tesla. Valiant Pharma tanking big time. They will be forced to sell stock of all types.

So? Haveyou found a GM board yet? Or are you short now?

 

[mejojo]

Better hope hedge funds are not loaded with Tesla. Valiant Pharma tanking big time. They will be forced to sell stock of all types.

Give it a rest....your act is SOOOO played......

 

[sunhelm]

Hi Robert,

Can we please have something like a "bear case" thread where bears can post their arguments and others can respond? And can the moderators please start moving all of those posts to that thread? I want to allow everyone to express their opinions, and allow everyone who wants to to respond, but I don't want to have to continue to spend my time reading it.

Thanks!

Personally, I would love both bull and bear arguments in the same short term thread. I mean, isn't that what this thread is about, discussing the gyrations of the stock no matter how unpalatable it is?

 

[eepic]

Personally, I would love both bull and bear arguments in the same short term thread. I mean, isn't that what this thread is about, discussing the gyrations of the stock no matter how unpalatable it is?

Ditto this. I think it's just the "My feelings changed upon the Model X reveal. It gives me indigestion." that may have rubbed some people the wrong way. Personally, I am curious what made CalgaryArsenal change his mind. Is it the doors? Slow production ramp? Not enough features? Too many features?

 

[Papafox]

Does anyone else see this ER as one that is turned on its head with its drop in prices leading up to the ER? Perhaps the tendency of TSLA to dip after an ER will be turned on its head too if the Tesla team reaffirms 2015 guidance. I had sold some shares and leaps in anticipation of the ER dip but have today been buying back some leaps on the dips. I would rather be shopping for leaps now than during a feeding frenzy if the ER is positive. Imagine the premiums you'd be paying then. If the ER is negative, then I will weather the dip and still do ok by the end of 2016, I suspect.