Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mdemetri]

I think TSLA held up relatively well today compared to other growth stocks:

TSLA down 2.7%
MBLY down 3.27%
NFLX down 4.84%
AMZN down 3.49%
FB down 3.77%

 

[FredTMC]

I think TSLA held up relatively well today compared to other growth stocks:

TSLA down 2.7%
MBLY down 3.27%
NFLX down 4.84%
AMZN down 3.49%
FB down 3.77%

yeah I was thinking the same.

 

[maoing]

You know how much NFLX, AMZN and FB YTD is?

I think TSLA held up relatively well today compared to other growth stocks:

TSLA down 2.7%
MBLY down 3.27%
NFLX down 4.84%
AMZN down 3.49%
FB down 3.77%

 

[Lump]

 

[maoing]

TSLA closed @ 222 on 12/31/14, so YTD is -6.7%. 2015 is the huge lost year for TSLA compared to other tech stocks. It reflects combined execution, demand and macros issues.

 

[MitchJi]

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, we're – as we talked about before, really, the main thing with the X is just scaling up production. We're making steady progress with each passing week. Actually, seven days a week, every day, I get an update on manufacturing progress and what the issues are. And we see no fundamental issues on the production ramp. It's just a question of how quickly we can solve each issue. I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct, this is quite nuanced. So we feel very confident of being able to get to several hundred vehicles per week by the end of the year.....

....And the issues are a bunch of little things. Door seals, right now, is a challenge, for example. The monopost seat in the second row is still a challenge, but less of a challenge. It's not the gating factor. This is basically going through a series of constraints. Most constraints can change from one day to the next. But the important point is that we don't see any fundamental obstacle to achieving a production rate of several hundred per week sometime next month.

In other words they are still resolving and uncovering problems and they don't think there are any remaining problems that will prevent them from ramping production to "several hundred per week sometime next month". I think it's a safe bet that if Bonnie doesn't have a firm delivery date by mid December that they are not going to meet their goal.

I'd love to see tesla schedule delivery of a few MXs within the next day or so. Not crap loads but how about a few?! We all know tesla said they'll ramp slowly at first and then more quickly in December to hundreds of units a week. Would it really kill them to deliver a few now?

These deliveries would give the street some confidence that things are moving. There's simply got to be some 2nd row seats available. There's a few founder cars already and a Veterns Day car yesterday and cars spotted on the test track and beta cars with seats.

If they start delivery before they complete their process of resolving and uncovering problems they will either be shipping cars with known problems, or it will be a crap shoot. Don't you think that waiting until they are ready is a wiser course of action?

I just bought a decent chunk of Tesla Motors, Inc to add to my collection. The recent FUD article blitz that has no basis in fundamentals + trolls showing up on TMC in force tells me that this is a dip with no substance.

The earnings call assuaged all of my fears, and my thesis remains sound until/unless something material changes.

I don't believe this will happen, but the short-term risk IMO is that they can't start producing at least ~200 MX's in a week by the last week of the year. I think a sub $200 SP is possible if that happens.

I hope someone here got a straddle before the ER, and sold their calls after a day or two, and kept their puts for a while! A blown opportunity for most of us :frown:.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

TSLA closed @ 222 on 12/31/14, so YTD is -6.7%. 2015 is the huge lost year for TSLA compared to other tech stocks. It reflects combined execution, demand and macros issues.

Better watch it Maoing. When you point out the obvious, that Tesla is turning into a bit of a stinker, and is having a horrible year, you get blocked by the kool aide drinkers. Only bulls allowed. Maybe they will add me back to the list when my 150 dollar prediction comes true!:tongue: 180 by Christmas, 150 by January 28th.

 

[maoing]

Get used to that When TSLA had such a BAD year which reflects serious execution and demand issues (I need to put aside macros because FANG perform so well), it's amusing to watch TSLA cheerleads praise Tesla day and night regardless true or false. The same thing just happened in SCTY thread, eventually market will tell us who's right.

Btw, I'm long TSLA and SCTY and got hit hard too recently.

Better watch it Maoing. When you point out the obvious, that Tesla is turning into a bit of a stinker, and is having a horrible year, you get blocked by the kool aide drinkers. Only bulls allowed. Maybe they will add me back to the list when my 150 dollar prediction comes true!:tongue: 180 by Christmas, 150 by January 28th.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Well I wish you well on your positions. You seem to have a great track record.

 

[hockeythug]

"Demand issues". Ha.

 

[xhawk101]

Lol comical to watch the bears playing together.

Its classic technique to throw in a disarming "btw im long TSLA"; Yea right, such BS.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Get used to that When TSLA had such a BAD year which reflects serious execution and demand issues

Tesla has definitely had execution issues this year, mostly related to Model X, but I don't think demand is a problem. Model S orders have been rising, and the deployment of Autopilot software, although late, has generated a lot of interest.

Lol comical to watch the bears playing together.

Its classic technique to throw in a disarming "btw im long TSLA"; Yea right, such BS.

One can be long TSLA but still be bearish in the short term. Much of the differences here come down to strategy and goals. I don't trade on a short term basis and I don't seek maximum profits. Maoing has stated in the past a goal of maximizing the amount of money made. This may involve lots of short term trades and attempts at using downturns to maximum advantage.

Overall I encourage people not to trade, because most people tend to buy high and sell low. It's unfortunately part of human psychology in general.

 

[dmunjal]

Tesla has definitely had execution issues this year, mostly related to Model X, but I don't think demand is a problem. Model S orders have been rising, and the deployment of Autopilot software, although late, has generated a lot of interest.




One can be long TSLA but still be bearish in the short term. Much of the differences here come down to strategy and goals. I don't trade on a short term basis and I don't seek maximum profits. Maoing has stated in the past a goal of maximizing the amount of money made. This may involve lots of short term trades and attempts at using downturns to maximum advantage.

Overall I encourage people not to trade, because most people tend to buy high and sell low. It's unfortunately part of human psychology in general.

I'm bearish in the short term but not because of anything Tesla specific. I think the recent drop in SP can be explained mostly by the execution issues. I'm worried about a further drop in the next few months strictly because of macro issues related to the Fed.

 

[Scott Ales]

Get used to that When TSLA had such a BAD year which reflects serious execution and demand issues (I need to put aside macros because FANG perform so well), it's amusing to watch TSLA cheerleads praise Tesla day and night regardless true or false. The same thing just happened in SCTY thread, eventually market will tell us who's right.

Btw, I'm long TSLA and SCTY and got hit hard too recently.

The reason bulls are so strong is the product! That's the real market. Not the manipulated SP, that market is a joke!

So your comment needs to be tweaked slightly, it should read...

Eventually, the people owning and driving the cars will tell us who's right.

That would be an accurate statement. It's fine to be a bear and short the company as information is distorted accordingly. But I can absolutely promise you the product is off the charts amazing and will ultimately win out. I hate the current bear movement to be sure. But I also respect the reality that it will fluctuate. And if it ever drops down to the levels you are preaching I will buy more and celebrate!!!

 

[maoing]

Tesla -- company
Model S -- product
TSLA -- stock

I just want to remind good product != good stock; good company != good stock. of course, sp will be up and down, so the good/bad criteria will be changing.

 

[Scott Ales]

Tesla -- company
Model S -- product
TSLA -- stock

I just want to remind good product != good stock; good company != good stock. of course, sp will be up and down, so the good/bad criteria will be changing.

Maybe even a minor adjustment to that...

Save the Planet -- Mission
Tesla -- Company
Model S -- Product
TSLA -- Stock

The culture of the company is completely unique and not discussed even here enough.

 

[Lessmog]

Good reminder, Scott!
Any news on the SpaceX front? The next lanch should be like any week now?
I guess that keeps Elon a bit busy right at the moment ...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

During the last days EM found some additional money to invest in SolarCity shares.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Tesla -- company
Model S -- product
TSLA -- stock

I just want to remind good product != good stock; good company != good stock. of course, sp will be up and down, so the good/bad criteria will be changing.

On the flip side, in order for TSLA to appreciate in value, Tesla Motor Co. must be well run and must have good products. Bad products won't sell, and will damage the company's finances. Similarly, mismanagement could result in unprofitable operations, even if the product is good.

Good products and management do not guarantee a rising stock price. However, bad products and mismanagement almost certainly guarantee a falling stock price.

 

[CatB]

Originally Posted by maoing
Tesla -- company
Model S -- product
TSLA -- stock


I just want to remind good product != good stock; good company != good stock. of course, sp will be up and down, so the good/bad criteria will be changing.

On the flip side, in order for TSLA to appreciate in value, Tesla Motor Co. must be well run and must have good products. Bad products won't sell, and will damage the company's finances. Similarly, mismanagement could result in unprofitable operations, even if the product is good.

Good products and management do not guarantee a rising stock price. However, bad products and mismanagement almost certainly guarantee a falling stock price.

These sound like some good "first principles" - the kinds of things that get forgotten when we drift into the gambling mentality of the stock market.

@anticitizen - you don't need to convince me not to gamble on puts and calls (but at least this board has given me an idea of what they are and how they ... um... "work", the main value to me of all the dialog (bear and bull) is when I want to time things like donating appreciated shares to charity and then buying new to replace them (to reduce capital gains) and when to accumulate shares.

So, big thanks to all of you, and I will return to lurking now