Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

Our current Prime Minister is doing a very good job at killing oil and causing an even greater recession. I am all for returning to our Canadian values, but I can say this because I took steps to protect against this exact scenario 3 years ago. I am not sure my fellow Canadians know what they are getting themselves into nor do I think the average Canadian will be able to weather the coming calamity.

It won't be just Canada, there is likely many countries that are in for some rough times ahead due to the complete and total collapse of Oil/Gas/Coal. That said, I would think Canada to be in a similar boat as the US in that it will hurt areas that depend on this for the very existence of certain towns/villages, but it shouldn't cause as much turmoil as it will to countries like Norway, or Saudi Arabia... where it makes up a very large percentage of the Country's GDP.

At least according to this: Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly)

It is only 8.6% of the overall economy. Albeit it is 28% of the "Goods Producing Industries"

Now of course 8.6% is considerably higher than the 1.7% that mining oil and gas in the US brings in: BEA : Gross-Domestic-Product-(GDP)-by-Industry Data

Even if you add in industries such as: Petroleum and coal products (1%), Plastic and Rubber Products (.4%), Truck transportation (.8%), Pipeline transportation (.1%)... these just don't add up to enough to matter to the US, and I would imagine that Canada has similar percentages on these areas. Granted some of the above would not completely drop off since they would still exist, just less so...

 

[Chickenlittle]

It won't be just Canada, there is likely many countries that are in for some rough times ahead due to the complete and total collapse of Oil/Gas/Coal. That said, I would think Canada to be in a similar boat as the US in that it will hurt areas that depend on this for the very existence of certain towns/villages, but it shouldn't cause as much turmoil as it will to countries like Norway, or Saudi Arabia... where it makes up a very large percentage of the Country's GDP.

At least according to this: Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly)

It is only 8.6% of the overall economy. Albeit it is 28% of the "Goods Producing Industries"

Now of course 8.6% is considerably higher than the 1.7% that mining oil and gas in the US brings in: BEA : Gross-Domestic-Product-(GDP)-by-Industry Data

Even if you add in industries such as: Petroleum and coal products (1%), Plastic and Rubber Products (.4%), Truck transportation (.8%), Pipeline transportation (.1%)... these just don't add up to enough to matter to the US, and I would imagine that Canada has similar percentages on these areas. Granted some of the above would not completely drop off since they would still exist, just less so...

It is always surprising about how things turn out not many predicted this collapse in oil prices. I do not believe collapse in demand total answer. I would love for alternative energy sources to be responsible for decrease in demand but doub that as well. I believe it is over supply, especially with Saudis increasing production "to keep market share". Perhaps it's to slow down alternative energy companies. Their recent release of a report stating very low electric car sales expected even upto 2050 seems a weird prediction. Why were they so not concerned to release this? Many have predicted oil trying to kill alternative energy, perhaps this is the strategy

 

[chickensevil]

It is always surprising about how things turn out not many predicted this collapse in oil prices. I do not believe collapse in demand total answer. I would love for alternative energy sources to be responsible for decrease in demand but doub that as well. I believe it is over supply, especially with Saudis increasing production "to keep market share". Perhaps it's to slow down alternative energy companies. Their recent release of a report stating very low electric car sales expected even upto 2050 seems a weird prediction. Why were they so not concerned to release this? Many have predicted oil trying to kill alternative energy, perhaps this is the strategy

Given the known cost of 250$/kwh for batteries for grid storage (retail price), and the falling cost of Solar over the next 5 years it seems to me like Oil would almost have to come down in price in order to stay competitive. We will likely continue to see a drop in the price of oil until it drops to 0$ because they are likely to try to sell their product where ever they can.

I feel like OPEC is saying one thing and doing another (lead by SA). If you were in that industry and actually saw the writing on the wall, wouldn't you do something in order to try to ensure your way of life? Yes, market share I think has something to do with it too. But it could very likely be that they want to offload as much product as they can while they can still make a nice profit (SA has some of the cheapest to extract oil reserves) before the price would be forced to fall below even that value. At 50$ a barrel I am pretty certain SA is still pocketing around 100% profit.

 

[madodel]

Given the known cost of 250$/kwh for batteries for grid storage (retail price), and the falling cost of Solar over the next 5 years it seems to me like Oil would almost have to come down in price in order to stay competitive. We will likely continue to see a drop in the price of oil until it drops to 0$ because they are likely to try to sell their product where ever they can.

I feel like OPEC is saying one thing and doing another (lead by SA). If you were in that industry and actually saw the writing on the wall, wouldn't you do something in order to try to ensure your way of life? Yes, market share I think has something to do with it too. But it could very likely be that they want to offload as much product as they can while they can still make a nice profit (SA has some of the cheapest to extract oil reserves) before the price would be forced to fall below even that value. At 50$ a barrel I am pretty certain SA is still pocketing around 100% profit.

Without a doubt the Saudis are pumping as much as they can because their cost to produce is so much lower than just about anyone else's, especially the frackers here in the US. Saudi can still make a profit at these prices while in the US it is costing them money to sell it. And the Saudis are investing their profits in solar so they will be a large player in that, at least for the region. The price of oil is going to be low for the immediate future unless the NeoCons can drum up a new war to dramatically cut supply. Syria and Iraq just doesn't do that any more, and Iran should be ramping up exports. Quite a dilemma for the poor oil tycoons.

 

[ggr]

I thought $30k. Because I remembered Model S was the full price of the car.

No, it was US$40k.

 

[MitchJi]

This is interesting :
Tesla Motors Inc Rival Makes Big Promises, Slashes Employee Pay

esla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a big name in the EV world, and beating it will be no easy task. Porsche is learning this as it moves ahead with the development of its Mission E, which is truly an exciting concept. The firm has to resort to pay cuts to fund its electric sports car, says a report from Reuters.

Porsche employees have agreed to the pay cut, and the total saving will amount to several hundred million euros, Reuters says. In December, the car maker said to invest 1bn Euros or $1.1bn on the project, and producing the Mission E will create 1000 new jobs.

Last week, a spokesman for Porsche said, “Employer and employees have jointly drawn up measures that have led to the decision of producing the Mission E model at Zuffenhausen.”
<Snip>

I think that at least this means Porsche is serious about their EV effort. Maybe they realize that pretty soon every high performance car will be an EV.

 

[Causalien]

It won't be just Canada, there is likely many countries that are in for some rough times ahead due to the complete and total collapse of Oil/Gas/Coal. That said, I would think Canada to be in a similar boat as the US in that it will hurt areas that depend on this for the very existence of certain towns/villages, but it shouldn't cause as much turmoil as it will to countries like Norway, or Saudi Arabia... where it makes up a very large percentage of the Country's GDP.

At least according to this: Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly)

It is only 8.6% of the overall economy. Albeit it is 28% of the "Goods Producing Industries"

Now of course 8.6% is considerably higher than the 1.7% that mining oil and gas in the US brings in: BEA : Gross-Domestic-Product-(GDP)-by-Industry Data

Even if you add in industries such as: Petroleum and coal products (1%), Plastic and Rubber Products (.4%), Truck transportation (.8%), Pipeline transportation (.1%)... these just don't add up to enough to matter to the US, and I would imagine that Canada has similar percentages on these areas. Granted some of the above would not completely drop off since they would still exist, just less so...

Even with ny wirst projections, I didn't account for $40 oil and I had one of the most pessimistic projection at $60 out of the Canadians I know. This is 1997 price.

The greater implication of the oil effect is the collapse of currency. In my undercover investigation, I am already seeing an uptick in theft of food. This is in Canada, where soup kitchen is abundant and theft has no consequences. There is also an uptick of middle class Canadian for food items.

Then, there is how much more leveraged we are than USA in 2008. The Ontario debt is growing out of control and they are supporting sed to be the adult. The upside is that I am seeing an uptick of Tourists from Asia and USA. But that will only helps tourist attractions like Vancouver and Montreal. So come help our economy guys.

- - - Updated - - -

It won't be just Canada, there is likely many countries that are in for some rough times ahead due to the complete and total collapse of Oil/Gas/Coal. That said, I would think Canada to be in a similar boat as the US in that it will hurt areas that depend on this for the very existence of certain towns/villages, but it shouldn't cause as much turmoil as it will to countries like Norway, or Saudi Arabia... where it makes up a very large percentage of the Country's GDP.

At least according to this: Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly)

It is only 8.6% of the overall economy. Albeit it is 28% of the "Goods Producing Industries"

Now of course 8.6% is considerably higher than the 1.7% that mining oil and gas in the US brings in: BEA : Gross-Domestic-Product-(GDP)-by-Industry Data

Even if you add in industries such as: Petroleum and coal products (1%), Plastic and Rubber Products (.4%), Truck transportation (.8%), Pipeline transportation (.1%)... these just don't add up to enough to matter to the US, and I would imagine that Canada has similar percentages on these areas. Granted some of the above would not completely drop off since they would still exist, just less so...

Even with ny wirst projections, I didn't account for $40 oil and I had one of the most pessimistic projection at $60 out of the Canadians I know. This is 1997 price.

The greater implication of the oil effect is the collapse of currency. In my undercover investigation, I am already seeing an uptick in theft of food. This is in Canada, where soup kitchen is abundant and theft has no consequences. There is also an uptick of middle class Canadian for food items.

Then, there is how much more leveraged we are than USA in 2008. The Ontario debt is growing out of control and they are supporting sed to be the adult. The upside is that I am seeing an uptick of Tourists from Asia and USA. But that will only helps tourist attractions like Vancouver and Montreal. So come help our economy guys.

 

[Bobbyducati]

not a good start to the week.

 

[FluxCap]

What if the oil price decline is a result of the market beginning to price in the death of oil as a fuel source over the next decade or so?

 

[jhm]

It is always surprising about how things turn out not many predicted this collapse in oil prices. I do not believe collapse in demand total answer. I would love for alternative energy sources to be responsible for decrease in demand but doub that as well. I believe it is over supply, especially with Saudis increasing production "to keep market share". Perhaps it's to slow down alternative energy companies. Their recent release of a report stating very low electric car sales expected even upto 2050 seems a weird prediction. Why were they so not concerned to release this? Many have predicted oil trying to kill alternative energy, perhaps this is the strategy

In 2012, about 5.5 million barrel per day was consumed in power generation. Ignoring, oil-fired capex, refining and shipping costs, just the cost of crude, $32/bbl is at parity with solar at $57/MWh, the unsubsidized PPA price of utility scale solar. If OPEC had left the price of oil above $60 solar would be taking market share at an accelerated rate.

In 2016, oil production is expected to outpace consumotion by 0.6 md/d. This is the size of the glut.

It takes about 145 GW of solar to offset demand for 1 mb/d of oil. Cumulative solar installed is about 233GW and growing at 30% year. About 70 GW will be installed in 2016, which is enough to offset 0.5 mb/d in demand.

So clearly solar is within striking distance of doing serious damage to demand for oil and other fossil fuels. Indeed, solar installations would offset about 0.37 mb/d in fossil fuel demand, and if you add in wind and other renewables installed last year (over 50 GW of wind), the sum is in excess of the oil glut going forward. This is only going to get worse for fossil producers.

Edit. I calculate that about 93.6 GW wind at 25% capacity factor offsets 1 mb/d of demand. So 50 GW added in 2015 would offset 0.53 mb/d in demand. Put together with solar, this is a combined offset of 0.90 mb/d. Granted this offset has a distributed impact over all fossil fuels, but coal and gas have been in oversupply for years now. Natural gas does compete directly with oil in feedstock, heating, power generation, and transportation markwts.This will bleed out general demand for oil.

 

[aznt1217]

not a good start to the week.

This week barely counts. Little to no volume.

 

[Papafox]

not a good start to the week.

Announcer A: Welcome folks to the 2015 playoffs of the TSLA longs vs. shorts.

Announcer B: I was really expecting more out of team Tesla this week, just what is going on?

Announcer A: Remember that Tesla is mostly using their running game today and with the major indices down substantially, there's no way that Tesla is going to get much traction on this field today. Add in the fact that the refs are all market makers and shooting for 227.50 by week's end and you have the deck stacked against Tesla in the short run. With the score at 226.1, the refs are very comfortable with the game so far because many believe there'll be a rally at week's end as investors position for Q4's delivery numbers.

Announcer B: What about the throwing game?

Announcer A: Well, this is really Team Tesla's greatest strength. If their QB Musk lobs a few "tweet" passes this week, or even a Falcon 9, Tesla could score some very quick touchdowns and regain their lost ground. Even the running game can come back if Team Tesla can just prove this week that lots of Model X deliveries are imminent. That can get the shorts running and get Tesla back into the ball game.

Announcer B: Can't wait!

 

[Bobbyducati]

Announcer A: Welcome folks to the 2015 playoffs of the TSLA longs vs. shorts.

Announcer B: I was really expecting more out of team Tesla this week, just what is going on?

Announcer A: Remember that Tesla is mostly using their running game today and with the major indices down substantially, there's no way that Tesla is going to get much traction on this field today. Add in the fact that the refs are all market makers and shooting for 227.50 by week's end and you have the deck stacked against Tesla in the short run. With the score at 226.1, the refs are very comfortable with the game so far because many believe there'll be a rally at week's end as investors position for Q4's delivery numbers.

Announcer B: What about the throwing game?

Announcer A: Well, this is really Team Tesla's greatest strength. If their QB Musk lobs a few "tweet" passes this week, or even a Falcon 9, Tesla could score some very quick touchdowns and regain their lost ground. Even the running game can come back if Team Tesla can just prove this week that lots of Model X deliveries are imminent. That can get the shorts running and get Tesla back into the ball game.

Announcer B: Can't wait!

this was awesome, thanks! i really needed that. Im in some poor positions right now and second guessing myself. I need strength to get thru the next week or so!

 

[Scott Ales]

this was awesome, thanks! i really needed that. Im in some poor positions right now and second guessing myself. I need strength to get thru the next week or so!

Hang in the brother! I'm picking up my new 90D MS tomorrow morning. I could have paid for it completely with my losses since the MX launch! It'l come back for us. We might have a few expire worthless before it's turned around but we'll get there.

 

[Blip]

What if the oil price decline is a result of the market beginning to price in the death of oil as a fuel source over the next decade or so?

I'm afraid this isn't the case.

 

[larmor]

SOrry in advance, (showed up on yahoo home page, and likely why yahoo paid for algo to shorten news pieces and tailored)
I feel compelled to post this click bait link, but it has a picture of the lobby of GF...
Photos inside of Elon Musk's Tesla Gigafactory - Business Insider

 

[MikeC]

SOrry in advance, (showed up on yahoo home page, and likely why yahoo paid for algo to shorten news pieces and tailored)
I feel compelled to post this click bait link, but it has a picture of the lobby of GF...
Photos inside of Elon Musk's Tesla Gigafactory - Business Insider

Those pictures look great. I like that they are calling it "Gigafactory 1" right off the bat, it leads me to suspect that they are well into the planning stages for GF2.

 

[Cattledog]

Those pictures look great. I like that they are calling it "Gigafactory 1" right off the bat, it leads me to suspect that they are well into the planning stages for GF2.

Guaranteed!

 

[Auzie]

It is always surprising about how things turn out not many predicted this collapse in oil prices. I do not believe collapse in demand total answer. I would love for alternative energy sources to be responsible for decrease in demand but doub that as well. I believe it is over supply, especially with Saudis increasing production "to keep market share". Perhaps it's to slow down alternative energy companies. Their recent release of a report stating very low electric car sales expected even upto 2050 seems a weird prediction. Why were they so not concerned to release this? Many have predicted oil trying to kill alternative energy, perhaps this is the strategy

What if the oil price decline is a result of the market beginning to price in the death of oil as a fuel source over the next decade or so?

My understanding is that this drop in oil prices is due to increased supply from US. The increased rate of fracking oil production significantly reduced the demand from US for imported oils. SA is reluctant to reduce supply, hence oil price slump on world markets.


There is a good write up in The Economist on the subject.

America’s shale production boom is based on new techniques—fracking and horizontal drilling—and unlike “big oil” involves small companies and small projects. These are flexible, meaning they will quickly respond to any price rise. And they are innovative: huge productivity gains still lie ahead.

 

[Scott Ales]

Tesla spokesperson Khobi Brooklyn told Fortune that Tesla has now delivered “hundreds” of Model Xs, and says the company plans to soon start shipping “general production” versions of the Model X cars. These general production Model X cars, which cost at least $70,000, make up the bulk of Model X reservations.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/28/tesla-signature-series-model-x/?xid=yahoo_fortune

And so it begins.....