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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
No orders were made a few years back. Reservations sure, but orders were only made very recently.
And maoing I think you're well aware of the difference between reservation and order so what's your point exactly?
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Thanks.. I will have to open it in a laptop. Too much mobile app usage lately.
For model X, all need to make reservation at first, then converted to orders. So I think those two concepts are inter-changeable for the queuing purpose. X90D was originally planned to start delivery early 2016, now pushed back to mid-2016. The only explanation is TM needs to take more time to produce XP90D, it could be more XP90D reservation coverted to orders, but with such drastic movement (3 months push out at least), I would think slower than expected production ramp up could be valid reason too.
jesselivenomore
Member
It would be a valid reason if only it didn't fly in the face of everything we've actually heard from legit sources about Model X ramp.
Tesla spokesperson: Tesla starts shipping "Signature Series" Model X cars to customers - Fortune
Cleantechnica source inside Tesla: CleanTechnica Exclusive: Tesla Model X Production Kicks into High Gear
So you could trust one of these sources, or trust your imagination.
It's also possible that they are reorganizing their geographical priorities for shipments as well. It seems that they focused heavily on US deliveries as of late for Q4 numbers, and would have built a fairly large backlog. Other countries may have expiring credits, etc.
I will say though that my theory here doesn't hold up as well with it being 3 months as opposed to say, 45 days or something. Depends on how "mid" is defined. April and June are two very different times.
I imagine it is a combination of P orders and geographical stuff overall though as the main drivers. In any case, we should find out some more concrete info in a few days, and the forums here will help us get a good gauge of delivery cadence as they start flowing out more. I don't disagree with you though that it seems like the rollout *could* be 1-3 weeks behind plan (I'm going off the concept that Elon mentioned where the exponential ramp being delayed even a week or two causes large changes in pace)
Scott Ales
Member
Picked up our 2016 MS 90D this afternoon. Three other MS deliveries while I was there. Absolutely in love again with the product. Didn't realize how much I missed the MS. AutoPilot is AWESOME! Based on the ALL the deliveries commented on in Orlando I personally feel the dam has broken. In a great way.
Hang on folks!
Hang on folks!
everman
Member
Congratulations Scott! You have definitely been patient, and this is your reward! Enjoy!
sub
Active Member
since you're clearly only capable of seeing the negative in everything, let's hear your explanation on this model S 90D delivery date getting pushed back? Production 90D estimated time frame changing
slow ramp? Everyone at tesla quiting, no employees to build cars? Shutting down line completely for weeks due to model X issues?
I have no idea why this order is pushed back but I'm pretty sure the sky isn't falling. Could actually be....gasp, increased demand? Nah, not in your world.
edit - added "model s"
Clearly there are a lot of people here can ONLY see positivity of TSLA, that's your call. Instead I have more balanced view, the reason I usually don't give positive views in TMC is because it's already enough enough in TMC, no need more noise. "increased demand", that's flawed logic. The new demand (reservation) won't be delivered until late 2016. So it doesn't affect X90D delivery start date at all.
FWIW, I'd appreciate hearing your balanced views. Your negative views actually give your positive views more credibility, which means positivity is not just noise coming from you. But when you censor your positive views you come across as biased negative and it turns into noise. I would suggest you don't have to balance the forum on your own, it's better to just be a balanced poster yourself.
Didn't you notice I've started long position a few weeks back, currently with 50%.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...g-Strategies?p=1274847&viewfull=1#post1274847
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...g-Strategies?p=1283170&viewfull=1#post1283170
I think ACTION speaks itself if you can recall what I posted around end of March this year (TA thread, p12/p13).
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...g-Strategies?p=1274847&viewfull=1#post1274847
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...g-Strategies?p=1283170&viewfull=1#post1283170
I think ACTION speaks itself if you can recall what I posted around end of March this year (TA thread, p12/p13).
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jesselivenomore
Member
People are not following you around keeping track of your position. If you are bearish TSLA in the short/medium term, express your pessimism all you want, if you turn out to be right then great for you.(and helpful to the forum as well) However, if you are actually bullish on TSLA, as your position would suggest, then shouting down anything positive just in the name of "balance" is simply disingenuous. And possibly misleading to whomever takes your posts seriously.
Also, it would be more beneficial for you to expressed your "balance" with facts, as opposed to fantasy. Such as your constant assertions of "demand constraint", and now this Model X ramp.
Not really. I just want to point out the flawed enthusiastic logic.
I still think TSLA's growth is demand constrained and I benefited a lot from my assertion this year. In next a few quarters, due to model X backlog, so the demand constraints will be temporarily gone. That's one of the major reasons I start building long position, and I believe it'll come back again maybe late 2016.
Model X ramp is far disappointing than most investors can imagine. First, TM missed original 5K delivery goal; Second, TM will miss reduced 2K delivery goal in Q4; Third, the ramp up trajectory is still uncertain from many evidence compared to what TM claimed earlier;
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jesselivenomore
Member
Good for you. I believe TSLA's growth is supply constrained and I benefited a lot from that assertion this year as well. The Model S is supply constrained. The Model X is supply constrained. Tesla Energy will be supply constrained for the foreseeable future. And once Model 3 launches, it will be supply constrained for years to come.
The ONLY thing that is arguable that is even slightly demand constrained is, since the Model X has been delayed, with two production lines both pumping out Model S to make quarterly numbers, in this state the Model S could be demand constrained. But even that is debatable. But once those production lines go back to doing what they are set out to do, producing both S and X, Model S will go back to supply constrained.
In the end, TSLA is not a product. It is a company encompassing all its products. Even if Model S eventually becomes consistently demand constrained, Tesla Motors still won't be, and that is what matters.
Assuming this is completely true, then Q4 is truly a bullish development for TSLA. Even with this massive disappointment in Model X ramp, Model S demand was so robust that they will still deliver 17k. Smashing what little doubt there was about being supply constrained, even in their most mature model. And since we all know for a fact that the Model X will ramp, sooner or later, a few weeks earlier or later is of zero consequence long term, medium term, nor even short term. Unless you think the state of the Model X ramp is some huge secret that only you are privy to, the stock's recent performance has spoken: NO ONE CARES if its off by a week or two. Because we know it is coming.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Your posted views are not balanced but extremely bearish on Tesla.
Balance means acknowledging the good while expressing doubts or worries about the future.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Of course they are not interchangeable. We both know very well that someone who reserved 4 years ago but want to order the X70D will have to wait far longer than someone who reserved yesterday wanting a XP90D. Did you even consider that one possible reason why standard X90D orders have been "pushed out" (if this is even the case) is that there is great demand for PX90Ds (which likely have the very best margin) and thus Tesla are prioritizing these builds?
chickensevil
Active Member
Actually, I think that is worse than you were suspecting re-5k to 2k. Because consider that they stated 55k, then revised to 50-55k, then revised to 50-52k while declaring Q4 deliveries would include an inventory/pipeline dump of around 2k cars.
To me, this indicates they *originally* thought they could pull off around 7k MX, then revised that downward to 2k-7k (the 50-55k), then revised that down to 0-2k (the new 50-52k while declaring a 2k inventory/pipeline dump).
This indicates that they essentially had to pull 2k MS out of nowhere at a minimum in order to just make the 50k guidance. If they post any significant number over 50k, that should speak volumes to their being able to tap into MS demand "at will" as they have declared before which is a positive outlook on MS numbers. That said, it is rather depressing at the same time that they couldn't get the MX ramped up like they were hoping for. So if we see a 52k number out of Tesla I will be ecstatic while at the same time a little sad that they just couldn't get the MX ramp to happen as fast as they said.
It is a problem to be sure, that they can't actually move past their first in-house produced car into a multicar company from a production side, but as long as they can get there eventually, and continue to make amazing products, I think the sales will continue to be there. Of all the issues for a young company to have, being production constrained (without making actual -bad- products) is the best kind of problem to face.
A lot of people here can't seem to give maoing a break. I've seen some of the older posts that people seem to dislike him for, but honestly, mao is a pretty reasonable guy with good insights and a skeptic mind. He is long tesla and wants their success but he is also an intelligent investor and he is looking for arguments against his investment. It's a smart, defensive thing that all investors should be doing. I think mao brings a lot of value to this place, honestly his "bear arguments" if you can even call his brainstorms that, are the most reasonable I have seen. It's not like he's coming over here spouting ignorant BS like a seeking alpha or profit confidential blog poster for goodness sakes.
Cut this guy some slack he's on the same team, and if no one ever brought up POTENTIAL negatives, we would all be worse off if one of them ended up being correct and true. It's not like he was wrong on a slower than predicted model X ramp months ago when he was saying things seemed to point to it. Don't make this investment an emotional one where anyone who even suggests something negative is the enemy, Telsa has and will continue to make several mistakes along the path to greatness they are following, it's in their DNA.
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