Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

Also, given my above comments, whether or not the market is happy with a 50k number, in the end, I will be happy with a 50k number given that they were clearly intending around 48k MS originally. So the fact that we are going to see at least 2k more MS and possibly more than that given the rumors and other things, this bodes very well on the MS demand.

I will say though that it would appear that we were somewhat pushing the limits of "at will" demand this quarter. Demand for a car is not likely to be something that you can trigger large swings (by 2k or more) in the span of a couple months. So the fact that they were able to pull that off means that going back to the slow steady demand rise we should see the MS continue to dominate the Large Luxury market.

I really hope Tesla breaks out each region at the end of the year, because I really want to know the final NA numbers so we can stick it in MB's face, and there is hints that we might even blow past MB in the EU market as well this year! So while we all wait for the MX to really get somewhere in deliveries, the continued progress on the MS should not be forgotten about!

 

[hobbes]

I really hope Tesla breaks out each region at the end of the year, because I really want to know the final NA numbers so we can stick it in MB's face, and there is hints that we might even blow past MB in the EU market as well this year!

Yeah, more detailed numbers would be great. I don´t think Tesla will blow past MB in any market though, but maybe the Model S will blow past the S class in some... But I guess that´s what you meant, right?

 

[Drax7]

People are not following you around keeping track of your position. If you are bearish TSLA in the short/medium term, express your pessimism all you want, if you turn out to be right then great for you.(and helpful to the forum as well) However, if you are actually bullish on TSLA, as your position would suggest, then shouting down anything positive just in the name of "balance" is simply disingenuous. And possibly misleading to whomever takes your posts seriously.

Also, it would be more beneficial for you to expressed your "balance" with facts, as opposed to fantasy. Such as your constant assertions of "demand constraint", and now this Model X ramp.

Totally agree, and jumping up and down telling us how great you are
does not impress me.

 

[FluxCap]

A lot of people here can't seem to give maoing a break. I've seen some of the older posts that people seem to dislike him for, but honestly, mao is a pretty reasonable guy with good insights and a skeptic mind. He is long tesla and wants their success but he is also an intelligent investor and he is looking for arguments against his investment. It's a smart, defensive thing that all investors should be doing. I think mao brings a lot of value to this place, honestly his "bear arguments" if you can even call his brainstorms that, are the most reasonable I have seen. It's not like he's coming over here spouting ignorant BS like a seeking alpha or profit confidential blog poster for goodness sakes.

Cut this guy some slack he's on the same team, and if no one ever brought up POTENTIAL negatives, we would all be worse off if one of them ended up being correct and true. It's not like he was wrong on a slower than predicted model X ramp months ago when he was saying things seemed to point to it. Don't make this investment an emotional one where anyone who even suggests something negative is the enemy, Telsa has and will continue to make several mistakes along the path to greatness they are following, it's in their DNA.

I agree with Irishjugg. Maoing is a non-native English speaker who broke news about the Chinese market last year here, sometimes translating by hand for our benefit and literally making us money by informing our positions. He, like all of us, gets occasionally emotionally attached to his trading positions and seeks to rationalize them. We all do this. All of us. So give it a rest and enjoy the fact that this thread has not become a completely useless cheerleading factory.

A lot of newer people in this thread are indeed pure cheerleaders, and not interested in discussing hypotheses about short-term up and down price movements in TSLA, which often have little to do with the long-term fundamental outlook of Tesla Motors.

This is off-topic but please folks: stop scaring away contrarian theses. There have been paid shills/plants here before on both sides, but maoing is not one of them. He's just an individual trader/investor out there trying to make some money, like most of us.

 

[30seconds]

When looking at the X and S the main impact I see on valuation is if they (combined) can continue to drive growth until the launch of the Model 3. At some point there are demand constraints on $80,000+ cars but I have no idea if we are looking at 75,000, 100,000 or 125,000. Tesla was able to hit 50,000 with the S, and I think in 2016 it looks pretty reasonable that 75,000 combined demand is there, but after that will the S be tired? will the X take substantial demand from the S? will the S get a refresh? will the X have demand >50,000? does the S still have legs and can get to 60,000+ yearly demand?

anyways these numbers point to a $8-10B revenue run rate before the Model 3 is released which I think is a very positive development with regards to cash flows and investments in continued growth.

 

[anon]

I agree with Irishjugg. Maoing is a non-native English speaker who broke news about the Chinese market last year here, sometimes translating by hand for our benefit and literally making us money by informing our positions. He, like all of us, gets occasionally emotionally attached to his trading positions and seeks to rationalize them. We all do this. All of us. So give it a rest and enjoy the fact that this thread has not become a completely useless cheerleading factory.

A lot of newer people in this thread are indeed pure cheerleaders, and not interested in discussing hypotheses about short-term up and down price movements in TSLA, which often have little to do with the long-term fundamental outlook of Tesla Motors.

This is off-topic but please folks: stop scaring away contrarian theses. There have been paid shills/plants here before on both sides, but maoing is not one of them. He's just an individual trader/investor out there trying to make some money, like most of us.

I also fully agree with this - Maoing has presented a valuable and often-correct alternative viewpoint for some time now. I think this thread has been more balanced as a result.

 

[Citizen-T]

I agree with Irishjugg. Maoing is a non-native English speaker who broke news about the Chinese market last year here, sometimes translating by hand for our benefit and literally making us money by informing our positions. He, like all of us, gets occasionally emotionally attached to his trading positions and seeks to rationalize them. We all do this. All of us. So give it a rest and enjoy the fact that this thread has not become a completely useless cheerleading factory.

A lot of newer people in this thread are indeed pure cheerleaders, and not interested in discussing hypotheses about short-term up and down price movements in TSLA, which often have little to do with the long-term fundamental outlook of Tesla Motors.

This is off-topic but please folks: stop scaring away contrarian theses. There have been paid shills/plants here before on both sides, but maoing is not one of them. He's just an individual trader/investor out there trying to make some money, like most of us.

What he said

 

[AlMc]

I agree with Irishjugg. Maoing is a non-native English speaker who broke news about the Chinese market last year here, sometimes translating by hand for our benefit and literally making us money by informing our positions. He, like all of us, gets occasionally emotionally attached to his trading positions and seeks to rationalize them. We all do this. All of us. So give it a rest and enjoy the fact that this thread has not become a completely useless cheerleading factory.

A lot of newer people in this thread are indeed pure cheerleaders, and not interested in discussing hypotheses about short-term up and down price movements in TSLA, which often have little to do with the long-term fundamental outlook of Tesla Motors.

This is off-topic but please folks: stop scaring away contrarian theses. There have been paid shills/plants here before on both sides, but maoing is not one of them. He's just an individual trader/investor out there trying to make some money, like most of us.

Thanks Flux. Exactly my sentiment. If you don't like what he has to offer put him on your ignore list. I don't always agree with his assertions/opinions but I want him to continue to post them as a way of challenging my thoughts, and perhaps, saving me from losses and helping me with gains on TSLA movements.

 

[JRP3]

I disagree, Maoing has often made claims that are not in evidence, i.e. Model S demand constraint, as well as trying to spin obviously positive events as negative. He was and should be chastised for both, and will continue to be in the future. If his negative points are proven correct then he will be vindicated, when they are not he will be criticized. That does not make this board a "fanboy" site by any means.

 

[AlMc]

I disagree, Maoing has often made claims that are not in evidence, i.e. Model S demand constraint, as well as trying to spin obviously positive events as negative. He was and should be chastised for both, and will continue to be in the future. If his negative points are proven correct then he will be vindicated, when they are not he will be criticized. That does not make this board a "fanboy" site by any means.

I agree that he is not always correct but I do not want him to stop posting his thoughts. Challenge his assertion..for sure if you don't agree with him OR put him on the 'ignore list'. IIRC you are usually good at engaging him with civility. Others, unfortunately, are not as civil in tone or words. No need to try to 'shout' him down.

 

[JRP3]

Of course, not trying to silence him or suggesting anyone do so. Just keeping him, and all of us, honest so to speak.

 

[FluxCap]

Back to the title of this thread, oil is down slightly again this morning and US equities have followed suit. We will see if today continues the "Santa rally" of yesterday or not. Only two trading days left in the week/month/year, and volume on the 31st is typically very light as the day goes on, so today should be interesting. Dec 31st OpEx is tomorrow.

Tesla looks to be on track to meet or exceed guidance and rocket into Q1 with the shiny robots in Fremont cranking out Model X's at ever-increasing rates, after a blowout Q4 of Model S sales. Cashflow positive looks well within reach.

How traders of TSLA position today and tomorrow will be interesting to watch, as we know that we will see Tesla sales figures release on schedule in the first week of January, after the weekend.

I personally want my TSLA position locked in soon because I expect to enjoy some nice profits when Q4 sales figures hit the news wires next week.

Edit: and we have liftoff. Rocketing up while the NASDAQ falls is an extremely bullish sign I watch that does not happen too often. Looks like traders are grabbing positions fast and some shorts may be covering before next week. NASDAQ may pull us down a bit today temporarily but that sharp price action against QQQ drop was really bullish for me short-term. TSLA wants to break higher and will soon I think.

 

[Bobbyducati]

good action to start the day, hopefully its less amateur hour and more continuation of yesterday.

 

[FredTMC]

Back to the title of this thread, oil is down slightly again this morning and US equities have followed suit. We will see if today continues the "Santa rally" of yesterday or not. Only two trading days left in the week/month/year, and volume on the 31st is typically very light as the day goes on, so today should be interesting. Dec 31st OpEx is tomorrow.

Tesla looks to be on track to meet or exceed guidance and rocket into Q1 with the shiny robots in Fremont cranking out Model X's at ever-increasing rates, after a blowout Q4 of Model S sales. Cashflow positive looks well within reach.

How traders of TSLA position today and tomorrow will be interesting to watch, as we know that we will see Tesla sales figures release on schedule in the first week of January, after the weekend.

I personally want my TSLA position locked in soon because I expect to enjoy some nice profits when Q4 sales figures hit the news wires next week.

Edit: and we have liftoff. Rocketing up while the NASDAQ falls is an extremely bullish sign I watch that does not happen too often. Looks like traders are grabbing positions fast and some shorts may be covering before next week. NASDAQ may pull us down a bit today temporarily but that sharp price action against QQQ drop was really bullish for me short-term. TSLA wants to break higher and will soon I think.

Nice post. Love to see a "Tsunami of Hurt (Part 3)" for the shorts this quarter

 

[Krugerrand]

Nice post. Love to see a "Tsunami of Hurt (Part 3)" for the shorts this quarter

Just people positioning themselves for the Q4 results, which quite likely will be released during market close as Jan 1 is Friday (New Years Day), Jan 2 Saturday and Jan 3 Sunday. Unless Tesla holds off until Jan 4th to announce.

 

[Causalien]

2016 May be the year where logic and common sense returns and see some of the injustices in the world corrected. Shkreli covicted and locked away, the afluenza teen locked away (seriously, he is not rich enough to claim afluenza) and I would really like to see TSLA being properly valued for once.

And if my secret wish of Justin Bieber losing his fame I'll be content for the next 5 years.

 

[FluxCap]

Nice post. Love to see a "Tsunami of Hurt (Part 3)" for the shorts this quarter

Thanks. NASDAQ looks determined to drift down this morning on oil but I don't think that lasts long. TSLA keeps trying to break higher when QQQ goes green, and I think it will.

 

[Papafox]

And if my secret wish of Justin Bieber losing his fame I'll be content for the next 5 years.

And for our 2016 wishes, may I add a ton of Model X deliveries? A high percentage of vehicles running down the assembly line being Model X is all fine and good, but the picture isn't complete until we start seeing a slew of Model X delivery posts.

 

[Bobbyducati]

Just people positioning themselves for the Q4 results, which quite likely will be released during market close as Jan 1 is Friday (New Years Day), Jan 2 Saturday and Jan 3 Sunday. Unless Tesla holds off until Jan 4th to announce.

Trip was reporting jan 4th, for what its worth.

edit: last line here: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Q4+Deliveries+Likely+at+Higher+End+of+Guidance+-+Chowdhry/11179861.html?si_client=st

 

[FredTMC]

I'd like it to be the 4th.