Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Krugerrand]

Catching up on the posts added today it appears that my post regarding the current weekly running rate went invisible immediately after posting :smile:

Given how much of the current TM focus is on increasing the production, the fact that according to Elon the current weekly rate is twice higher than it was year ago, should garner a little more attention...

The current weekly production rate is conservatively higher than 1098 cars/week and could be as high as 1200 cars/week.

See my earlier post for details: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 61

There you go pGo, more evidence of what I said earlier today about run rate.

 

[sundaymorning]

I did not see this posted before, but at about 16:15 time mark into the interview Elon indicated:



http://mobile.bloomberg.com/video/t...l-x-electric-cars-PgiTC2fwS3ehMYv0PUkLrg.html


According to the Q4 2013 Shareholder Letter production rate on February 19, 2014 was conservatively between 549 (6587 / 12 = 549) and 600 cars a week. This means that the current production rate conservatively is more than 1098 cars per week and possibly as high as 1200 cars/week. This is excellent news that seem to be currently flying under the radar even on this Forum. The implication is that Model S yearly production rate is currently at a minimum, is at 52,800 (11,000x48) and as high as 57,600. These production rates almost guarantee a very healthy guidance at the earnings call.

Looks like we have a fire sale of the lifetime going on right now…

From the shareholder letter:





http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm

This was a very good find, and the type of information we need to validate what we knew all along, demand continues to be strong and production kinks are being ironed out. Should be a great 2015.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

actually thought that the interview on bloomberg.com was fair. great interview. elon handled it well and was heartened by the confidence he seemed to indicate about tesla's future.

bought a little more to add to my long term holdings. going to keep nibbling if TSLA goes down from here.

 

[Renaud]

I feel better now that the bleeding, at least yesterday, stopped, and that 190 was a great support after opening.Looking forward for today's price action again!
Good and valuable exchanges, many pages filled on the forum as well, however, and I guess I'm not the only one, I'm still very confused.

So trying to sum it up in a naïve way:

-TSLA has been mistakenly correlated to oil
-TSLA has been moving often with the market, but mostly exagerating the downtrend
-TSLA is still extremely news sensitive
-There was a kind of a bear attack that overblew the China news, negating all the positive stuff that was said
-TSLA is technically broken
-EM had been stating that the price was kind of high, but was like 90 points ago? So now is it cheap again?

So where do we go next? In case of no news or until we get positive news, we just keep on sliding to the next support? Do we have a NFLX like scenario, going from close to 300 to 70 in 5 months?
Since ER is in a month or something, are we going to stay flat or slightly climb because what we heard is good and people take positions for a good ER?
As news, what's baked in actually? Is a future reveal of Model X considered as new news that will spark a rallye? Or do we need a real surprise?

I know it's not relevant to compare NFLX to TSLA, it's just that the patterns look alike and it's just to illustrate how things can go sour. But where would be a bottom where definitely TSLA is a bargain, considering what is known in terms of growth, sales, business development? Some say now is a bargain. PT's from analysts are still high.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

For everyone who is seeing some kind of correlation between oil prices and Tesla SP recently, oil prices in Frankfurt are currently up about 2%

 

[pGo]

There you go pGo, more evidence of what I said earlier today about run rate.

Thanks. Keep in mind production increase is non linear and may have ups and downs. I found Nov 17th blog as a solid point showing Tesla at 1000 cars/wk. If you average out the whole Q, I agree with 1000 cars/wk for q4. One hiccup though is P85D black hole thread showing delays. If production continued without issues, we're good.

Tesla may have increased production towards the end but don't believe its sustainable or about 80 cars/month increase if you consider linear growth. If that is true, Tesla would produce 14000 -15000 cars in q1, we'll see what they say in q4 report.

 

[Causalien]

Sounds like you have a great strategy going. Very cool. Are you in India now?

Ah well, time will tell whether or not the W is formed. I had contingency plan in place only as far as here. The rest is just my own belief in my TA analysis. And my own analysis of the game of throne that is being played behind the scene. + the odd 8 ball response I am seeing.

Not yet in India, but I've experienced 1 month of meditation already. After 6 months in India, my observation skills will be even better. Not sure if this is helping my investment skills though. Time will tell.

 

[chickensevil]

Ah well, time will tell whether or not the W is formed. I had contingency plan in place only as far as here. The rest is just my own belief in my TA analysis. And my own analysis of the game of throne that is being played behind the scene. + the odd 8 ball response I am seeing.

Not yet in India, but I've experienced 1 month of meditation already. After 6 months in India, my observation skills will be even better. Not sure if this is helping my investment skills though. Time will tell.

Every time I hear you talk about your "8 ball" I picture you shaking a magic 8 ball and seeing what response you get.

I tried that... I asked: What is the short term price action going to be like for this week?

Sadly, even my 8 ball doesn't know how to answer:

 

[Gerardf]

Someone seems motivated to prevent TSLA from going up.

Maybe this guy limiting his loss ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101428001

 

[ggies07]

Every time I hear you talk about your "8 ball" I picture you shaking a magic 8 ball and seeing what response you get.

I tried that... I asked: What is the short term price action going to be like for this week?

Sadly, even my 8 ball doesn't know how to answer:
View attachment 69297

hahahahaha. nice!

 

[Causalien]

Every time I hear you talk about your "8 ball" I picture you shaking a magic 8 ball and seeing what response you get.

I tried that... I asked: What is the short term price action going to be like for this week?

Sadly, even my 8 ball doesn't know how to answer:
View attachment 69297

LOL. I gave it the name 8 ball because sometimes it feels like that. Especially these past two days. I scream at it asking:"Why the **** are you saying up? Look at the stock price. Tell me now!!!"

 

[Johan]

Someone seems motivated to prevent TSLA from going up.

Maybe this guy limiting his loss ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101428001

I hope they're still holding all the puts.

 

[gavinwang]

Yes, watched the video, my perception is:
- Production rate doubled last year (2014)
- Same again for next year (YoY)

Question: "When do you see that [production rate / production constraints] easing and how is it gonna ease?"
EM: "Our weekly production rate YoY increased 100% and [...] we are trying to increase that again by 100% YoY in terms of the weekly production rate beginning this year to end of the year."

As currently global demand is bigger than production (see reservation tally), this bodes very well for the future

I can testify to the demand exceeding production capacity, having had to wait for P85D delivery to Hong Kong for 6 long months!!!

 

[FluxCap]

I found this image album pleasing after a day like yesterday -- makes me remember that no matter what happens with the gyrations of TSLA and media blathering / FUD, fresh new best-car-in-the-world-ever EV's are rolling off the line as fast as they can make them, because everyone wants them. We are building an electric vehicle army, and this army will win. So will TSLA.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Someone is working hard to hold the price back for damage control. As of this morning there were over 225,000 put options underwater for just this week.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I can testify to the demand exceeding production capacity, having had to wait for P85D delivery to Hong Kong for 6 long months!!!

Welcome gavinwang!
And please tell us the answer to the most important question in the universe:

-> Was it worth the wait???

- - - Updated - - -

I found this image album pleasing after a day like yesterday -- makes me remember that no matter what happens with the gyrations of TSLA and media blathering / FUD, fresh new best-car-in-the-world-ever EV's are rolling off the line as fast as they can make them, because everyone wants them. We are building an electric vehicle army, and this army will win. So will TSLA.

Good point, Flux!
Sometimes it is important to step back and take a small breather.
Thanks for the nice pic!

As of last EM interview in Detroit:
Question no longer is whether Tesla will be successfull or not.
Now the question is to what extent Tesla will be successfull!
Nice to see all the Model S rolling through manufacturing in Freemont.
Fleet keeps growing every day

 

[ScepticMatt]

PSA: Musk interview at Texas Department of transportation in 1hr 10 minutes.

10th annual Texas Transportation Forum program:
Tenth Annual Texas Transportation Forum * January 14 - 16, 2015 * Austin, Texas

Livestream:
Interview with Elon Musk on Livestream

 

[Muskol]

PSA: Musk interview at Texas Department of transportation in 1hr 10 minutes.

10th annual Texas Transportation Forum program:
Tenth Annual Texas Transportation Forum * January 14 - 16, 2015 * Austin, Texas

Livestream:
Interview with Elon Musk on Livestream

Thanks Matt

 

[doggusfluffy]

Every time I hear you talk about your "8 ball" I picture you shaking a magic 8 ball and seeing what response you get.

I tried that... I asked: What is the short term price action going to be like for this week?

Sadly, even my 8 ball doesn't know how to answer:
View attachment 69297

Shouldn't that now read: For only $9.99 monthly you can unlock exclusive access to your personalized fortune along with valuable insider knowledge...before you even know to ask. :tongue:

 

[yngwie_2012]

Isnt that the new Model X? It has sideview mirrors and no cameras?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="de"><p>Elon Musk &amp; Model X are at the Texas State Capitol in Austin today. Thanks to 100+ Tesla owners also in attendance. <a href="http://t.co/eM5K3x1yZk">pic.twitter.com/eM5K3x1yZk</a></p>&mdash; Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) <a href="https://twitter.com/TeslaMotors/status/555778608887652352">15. Januar 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>