Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[eepic]

I do not think this is correct. As I posted earlier today the SEC definition of the institutional investor excludes retail investors holding shares through the corresponding brokerage. In this case it is not the brokerage which exercises investment discretion, but retail investor. Therefore shares held by retail investors through a brokerage do not get listed on 13F.

I don't want to keep harping on this but institutional investor and institutional investment manager are NOT the same things, you're mixing them up.

- The NASDAQ "Institutional Holdings" webpage you originally correctly cited does not include retail holdings. No disagreement.
- Form 13F is filed by an institutional investment manager and *does* included holdings in funds held by retail investors.

I'm not sure why you still disagree when I linked the 13F section that specifically cites BoA/ML file together under the BoA 13F. Again, it shows the institutional holdings number can include an institutional investor account at Merrill Lynch.

And I specifically said hypothetical example, as you were asking how a fund would buy more TSLA shares without the fund manager deciding to do so.

Anyway, thank you for finding that gem on Lovallo tho one almost has to try to be in the 0.6th percentile. Maybe he's aiming for the wrong end of the rankings lol, it brings me comfort we are all in disagreement with him.

 

[Ingenieur]

Author has now posted a chart for Fukuta, who supplier motors for Tesla (apparently they are then changed by Tesla inhouse though).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-nQB1YXIAADrYe.jpg:large

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is Tesla working with Energizer or Maxwell technologies?

Dug up this comment from an old post.

"I was at a financial conference and heard the CEO of Maxwell Technology (a San Diego based ultra capacitor company) speak. Some thoughts from my notes:

(1) think of batteries as a Teapot, and UltraCaps as a Tea Cup. You can only fill/empty the teapot at the rate possible by its spout. The Tea Cup however can be emptied/filled very fast.
(2) UltraCaps are unaffected by charge/discharge cycles and have a much greater operating temperature range. Thats because they store energy in electrostatic rather than electrochemical form.
(3) UltraCaps hold up to 50% of their energy for 30 days, and a single 3000 farad 2.7V UltraCap is about the size of a Coke can. As BrianH noted the weight is much less hence the energy density is low.
(4) ideal application is to pair UltraCaps with Batteries. Lets the UltraCaps absorb/provide the big currents need for acceleration and regeneration and the battery supply the steady state 'cruising' load. Maxwell has shown a DOUBLE of service lifetime in a combined battery/UltraCap solution.
(5) the UltraCap 'protects' the expensive battery from high charge/discharge rates ("power") but the battery provides the kWh need for range ("energy")."

http://my.teslamotors.com/en_AU/forum/forums/ultracapacitor-ev

 

[TSLAopt]

Author has now posted a chart for Fukuta, who supplier motors for Tesla (apparently they are then changed by Tesla inhouse though).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-nQB1YXIAADrYe.jpg:large

there are many possible reasons for this data change, one glaring reason no one mentioned is:

perhaps Tesla was keenly aware of this potential Port shutdown and the supply chain risks it presented. In anticipation of that possible threat they had Panasonic and other overseas suppliers start shipping excess supplies several months before the Port shut down could get bad.

 

[Runarbt]

Author has now posted a chart for Fukuta, who supplier motors for Tesla (apparently they are then changed by Tesla inhouse though).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-nQB1YXIAADrYe.jpg:large

And the claims its "flat" ? Lol. I see a steady climb, the down from dec.14 to jan.15 doesn't say anything.. Christmas, holidays, free weeks in January? As long as the next ones continue the up-trend that all that is needed. It is definitively not "flat".

 

[Johan]

On a substance of the claim, it is verifiable falsehood. In July of 2013 Factory production was 500 cars/week, exactly half of what it is right now. The wait time back in July 2013 was about a month. The current production rate is about 1000 cars week and average wait time across all regions is 2.5 to 3 month. It is obvious that current rate of incoming orders is at least two times higher than it was back in June 2013.

The he guy is grasping at the straws. He is clearly not getting the right/complete data and/or willfully misrepresenting it.

Regarding the disease, I have no idea on proper terminology, but my observation is that some of TSLA Bears have propensity to telegraph their subconcisely self perceived vulnerabilities via the screen names. The Realist has obvious problem with the perception of reality. The Logical Thought has propensity of having posts which are void of both logic and thought, etc...

I would love to hear opinion of a professional psychologists on this one...

Not a psyhologist, but I do know a thing or two about psychology:

Self-justification - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In other words, when the terrain doesn't fit with the map you just change the map. There is a cognitive dissonance here, where the perma-bears are just at a loss why the market as a whole is not seeing what they are seeing. So the question then becomes either I'm wrong or mostly everyone else is wrong. It's very hard to accept the fact that you yourself may be wrong (for some people) which is why you will try to justify your take on reality by distorting or cherry picking the facts that suit you. I say to some of my patients sometimes: "Imagine you're driving along the freeway. The radio is on. The broadcaster says: We have an emergency broadcast - there is a car going the wrong way on the freeway, please be careful! And you think to yourself: It's not just one car going the wrong way, everyone is going the wrong way! Now is that the correct interpretation of the situation?".

 

[chickensevil]

Author has now posted a chart for Fukuta, who supplier motors for Tesla (apparently they are then changed by Tesla inhouse though).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-nQB1YXIAADrYe.jpg:large

Since I think the explanations provided on the other charts were explained well enough I just want to hit on this one specifically. Assuming I am reading this data correctly, the drop in Sept would have been largely caused by the shuttdown and slower ramp (they probably over supplied the previous months since they anticipated much larger production and that dropped dramatically. Also if you recall at the end of Q3 in the ER they stated that a lot of the finished/unfinished/WIP stuff at the factory was caused by this shutdown and slower than anticipated ramp.

The December spike and then January drop is also pretty easy to give a valid explanation. They were pushing as MANY Dual-Motor cars out that they could in December as they were desperate to fill the crazy D demand and also those are all fully spec'd top of the line cars which have a much higher GM on them. In January they would have finally cycled back around to making regular S85/S60 models and that would be why it would have dropped off. Yes, they continued to make some Dual Motor cars, but the split at least for January probably heavily favored single motor vs heavily favoring dual motor in December.

So, nothing to see here... move along...

 

[eepic]

Since I think the explanations provided on the other charts were explained well enough I just want to hit on this one specifically. Assuming I am reading this data correctly, the drop in Sept would have been largely caused by the shuttdown and slower ramp (they probably over supplied the previous months since they anticipated much larger production and that dropped dramatically. Also if you recall at the end of Q3 in the ER they stated that a lot of the finished/unfinished/WIP stuff at the factory was caused by this shutdown and slower than anticipated ramp.

The December spike and then January drop is also pretty easy to give a valid explanation. They were pushing as MANY Dual-Motor cars out that they could in December as they were desperate to fill the crazy D demand and also those are all fully spec'd top of the line cars which have a much higher GM on them. In January they would have finally cycled back around to making regular S85/S60 models and that would be why it would have dropped off. Yes, they continued to make some Dual Motor cars, but the split at least for January probably heavily favored single motor vs heavily favoring dual motor in December.

So, nothing to see here... move along...

+1. One or two data points doesn't make a trend, and there could be a lot of complexities in the supply chain we don't know about.

Don't think I saw this posted, but Samsung agreed to acquire Magna's battery pack business yesterday SDI News - Read News Articles | Samsung SDI

 

[chickensevil]

Also the impact was mostly on outbound, not inbound containers:

The West Coast port strike could shave 1% off US GDP | Business Insider

Ports werent shut down, just slower

West Coast Containers

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/54e5e8bc6da811097699a7e9/image.jpg

Barely any impact on inbound, should have caused such steep decline

I will also throw something out on this, there is still an obvious decline on imports in middle of 2014 toward the end of the year (chart doesn't appear to have 2015 data yet when things were at its worst). So while it is impacting exports *more* keep in mind this is a percentage y/y growth chart and the US doesn't export that much (at least not in comparison to our imports). So when you are overlapping the data, it isn't fair to suggest that imports aren't dramatically affected. it is just that as a percentage imports took a larger percent decline.

This is the same argument that we have when we talk about Tesla Y/Y growth or Y/Y R&D budget spending as a percentage of their total revenue as compared to the rest of the industry. But dollar for dollar, car for car, Toyota puts Tesla to shame by a large number. Growing from 1 to 10 is a 10,000 percent growth, and growing from 10M to 10M and 1 is only a .0000001% growth, but which would you rather have had? 10 cars sold, or 10,000,001 cars sold? It is the same issue here with this. You can always fit data to tell the story you want and that is why numbers are BS: Penn Teller Explain Numbers - YouTube (warning: language)

edit: I do realize that you are not from America, so you might not have grasped the difference between imports and exports for the US, but there is a reason that we (Americans) have started to make so many jokes about everything coming from China or Mexico. This chart only has data up through 2012 but should still give you an idea of how different our imports vs exports are (this is balanced off the GDP as a percentage, I really wish I could find raw dollars in cost of goods)

 

[Krugerrand]

Also the impact was mostly on outbound, not inbound containers:

The West Coast port strike could shave 1% off US GDP | Business Insider

Ports werent shut down, just slower

West Coast Containers

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/54e5e8bc6da811097699a7e9/image.jpg

Barely any impact on inbound, should have caused such steep decline

You're going to use the same media sources that consistently get Tesla information wrong and believe them about this? Really? Unless you're a shipmate, a port worker, a trucker, or a business depending on consistent flow of materials, resources, supplies and products in or out of those ports you (nor I) have any clue how those involved are being affected individually and as a whole.

Sometimes speculation can be fun, like trying to decipher camouflage and fake body panels on test vehicles, and sometimes speculation is - I'm not allowed to use that kind of wording on this forum so use your imagination.

 

[CyberDutchie]

How is this possible? Giving back all the gains from last week, without any news? Sigh...

 

[Drax7]

How is this possible? Giving back all the gains from last week, without any news? Sigh...

No new fundamentally bullish information out in the last few days , mostly short covering on lack of downward momentum.
China demand picking up would be very helpful.

 

[AlMc]

How is this possible? Giving back all the gains from last week, without any news? Sigh...

The run up last week, IMO, was on speculation about some type of buy out, partnership, collaboration with Apple. Then, the market decided that maybe Apple would get into the EV market all by themselves, causing a strong surge in APPL yesterday and a drop in TSLA. Today, people are taking profit in APPL and TSLA early. The day is young though:wink:

 

[Drax7]

Nobody that is rational can believe apple is buying tesla or building a car, I think the market is wiser than that,
unless you are a nervous short.

 

[AlMc]

Nobody that is rational can believe apple is buying tesla or building a car, I think the market is wiser than that,
unless you are a nervous short.

So, what did cause the run up last week and the drop this week? I did not see any bullish info that came out last week to account for the rise other than 'talk' about some type of 'possible' relationship between Apple and TM?

Edit: ADD: I did not believe the talk but I think some segment of the market did.

 

[Bobbyducati]

need a turn around, my calls that end friday are looking pretty horrible ATM.

0% chance tesla is bought by apple, this talk needs to stop coming up every other month (or so it seems). And this whole apple car talk is absurd, they wouldnt be able to release a car for several years (and i dont think they even will make a car, but for arguments sake), id imagine 2020 at the earliest, and even much longer to produce it on any kind of mass scale.

 

[v12 to 12v]

How is this possible? Giving back all the gains from last week, without any news? Sigh...

It looks like a change of MMs that are running the show. NASDAQ exchange had the reins for quite a while, but they stepped back. There could be a short attack going on. Boston Exchange looks unusually active during the big moves.

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Max Pain is still sitting around 110+. But, that could shift with this activity.

 

[ggr]

Also the impact was mostly on outbound, not inbound containers:

Are you unaware of the Law of Conservation of Shipping Containers?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Elon hasn't Tweeted anything for the past two weeks, and the downgrade yesterday was mostly based on nonsense. Very tempted to buy options here. IV biased to the bears, and something big will likely be announced in the next few weeks.

 

[eepic]

The run up last week, IMO, was on speculation about some type of buy out, partnership, collaboration with Apple. Then, the market decided that maybe Apple would get into the EV market all by themselves, causing a strong surge in APPL yesterday and a drop in TSLA. Today, people are taking profit in APPL and TSLA early. The day is young though:wink:

While I hate the idea that analysts can move the stock, we did get a very bullish note from Adam Jonas last week, and a very bearish note from Lovallo yesterday..

- - - Updated - - -

Elon hasn't Tweeted anything for the past two weeks, and the downgrade yesterday was mostly based on nonsense. Very tempted to buy options here. IV biased to the bears, and something big will likely be announced in the next few weeks.

Yup - I think it's likely, Elon is probably annoyed at Lovallo's note that they are demand constrained when he's been trying to emphasize the opposite is true.