Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[GardenEye]

Added what I could at 181.5 - Pleasantly delighted to have this opportunity (although in the great scheme of short term things I should be a blubbering wreck) but I'm long and content. Rome wasn't built in a day..

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am so torn between buying more TSLA and sitting on the fence. My conundrum is a result of being bullish on TSLA and bearish on the dollar. (And since all my money is in NOK, an investment in TSLA is an investment in USD.) TSLA is definitely approaching pricing where the TSLA-bull is starting to win over the USD-bear, but I don't think it's quite there yet. I'm thinking 170-180 would be better, and/or a weaker USD. But this is really hard.

 

[FredTMC]

Ah, but does it end Tuesday? ISTR that in some instances quarter ends at the nearest weekend. That might mean today or tomorrow will be the last day for car deliveries to count. Am I mistaken? Sure hope so.

Tesla uses calendar quarters

 

[eepic]

For those who invest long term and watch short term price for entry points to add into their position (I'm in this camp), a reminder:

These are the times it feels really crappy to be a long term holder of Tesla.

But go back to first principles - "buy low, sell high". Staying long during the sentimental lows are precisely the most important part to making the big returns in the longer run*. This emotional toll is the price we pay for an extremely attractive long term risk-reward profile.

Following these principles, I added to my position recently at $202. During the fire saga Nov 2013 I bought more at $133, and as it lowered to the $120's it felt as bad as it does now. Down the road, I'm confident the current downcycle will feel irrelevant in the same way.

*It's important to note there are times when one has to step back and see whether there's a longer term issue with the company and it's time to cut losses. This is not the case for Tesla, their velocity of innovation (imo: competitiveness) is in fact accelerating and they have significantly de-risked Gen 3 execution in the past year.

 

[AlMc]

I have been nibbling at shares and J17 Leaps all day, trying to DCA. I did not think we would see below $185 unless we had a tepid Q1ER......Use sound judgement here. Do not bet the house or use margin or think that this could be the bottom. However, if you are in for the long haul then nibbling by DCA not a bad idea. Good luck and take antacids as needed.

 

[ggies07]

For those who invest long term and watch short term price for entry points to add into their position (I'm in this camp), a reminder:

These are the times it feels really crappy to be a long term holder of Tesla.

But go back to first principles - "buy low, sell high". Staying long during the sentimental lows are precisely the most important part to making the big returns in the longer run*. This emotional toll is the price we pay for an extremely attractive long term risk-reward profile.

Following these principles, I added to my position recently at $202. During the fire saga Nov 2013 I bought more at $133, and as it lowered to the $120's it felt as bad as it does now. Down the road, I'm confident the current downcycle will feel irrelevant in the same way.

*It's important to note there are times when one has to step back and see whether there's a longer term issue with the company and it's time to cut losses. This is not the case for Tesla, their velocity of innovation (imo: competitiveness) is in fact accelerating and they have significantly de-risked Gen 3 execution in the past year.

Agreed, I really follow this thread to keep up with the company. The other reason it's annoying is that other people I know and family members will come up to me and say "I saw TSLA is down, company must not be doing well..." Then I get upset, put a fake smile on and go into my spiel.

 

[FANGO]

Musk must get his costs under control.

Uh, no.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Well, seems like a nice rally to end the day. Didn't get a chance to add. Definitely will if we have drops next week.

 

[eepic]

Agreed, I really follow this thread to keep up with the company. The other reason it's annoying is that other people I know and family members will come up to me and say "I saw TSLA is down, company must not be doing well..." Then I get upset, put a fake smile on and go into my spiel.

+1000

This is definitely the worst part about it all, because 9/10 friends and family like that don't have the patience to listen and understand the company is just fine.

 

[everman]

I just bought my 1000th share.

In terms of Blind Faith Price Targets, the implied discount is currently 32.2%. It has not been this high since Dec 2, 2013 at $124.17/share. At this extremely bearish sentiment, the BFPT for end of this year is $229. If we return to neutral sentiment (median implied discount, 28%), the BFPT is $313. Bearish, first quartile, is $279. So if you really believe the longterm growth story, this is opportunity to accumulate in the face of extreme bear market sentiment. But of course, anything could happen in the short run.

I love the BFPT updates! Please keep them coming!

 

[FANGO]

+1000

This is definitely the worst part about it all, because 9/10 friends and family like that don't have the patience to listen and understand the company is just fine.

Eh, this is generally how I respond to this:

I'm not all that worried, personally.

Added 8 Jan '17 250-350 spreads for 13.46 each today.

 

[ibcs]

Nice finish to the day. Hopefully, Elon will say something nice on Sunday and we get an up day on Monday.

 

[everman]

liquidated my JASO (+2% after 15 months of holding), and increased TSLA at 184.something

Funny, I just did something similar. After purchasing with my last dry powder this morning at $188, I just liquidated my CSIQ (from back in the Sleepy days) and am patiently waiting for that to clear so I can add more...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Nice finish to the day. Hopefully, Elon will say something nice on Sunday and we get an up day on Monday.

Elon just tweeted that 6.2 update will start roll-out over this weekend:

Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[eepic]

Elon just tweeted that 6.2 update will start roll-out over this weekend:

Elon Musk on Twitter:

Oddly, it's 4 am in China... damnit Elon, get some sleep!

 

[FANGO]

Oddly, it's 4 am in China... damnit Elon, get some sleep!

Probly still on west coast time....and if he's only in town for a couple days doesn't make too much sense to bother readjusting his internal clock.

Also some of us find it normal to be up at 4am . Remember he didn't leave that Oscar party til 5!

 

[Derek Vinyard]

It is funny to read all the "revised" analyst which on the other hand, almost in a copy-paste manner are talking about the potential the company has long term. I don't think the stock will go much further down iMHO.
Guys, will be in the office tomorrow and as I simply haven't had time to look about any news, ANR, reports etc at the terminal, will do it tomorrow for you.

don't lose your nerves, stay long and strong, enjoy life and keep on supporting this revolutionary company!

wish you all a lovely weekend

 

[sundaymorning]

+1000

This is definitely the worst part about it all, because 9/10 friends and family like that don't have the patience to listen and understand the company is just fine.

Thats 9/10 potential clients, when we start to hear 9 out of 10 family & friends agree with us, then it's time sell.

 

[aznt1217]

Eh, this is generally how I respond to this:
View attachment 76060

I'm not all that worried, personally.

Added 8 Jan '17 250-350 spreads for 13.46 each today.

What is this sorcery? Teach me haha

 

[hobbes]

Thanks, looking forward to your update! Have a good weekend.

It is funny to read all the "revised" analyst which on the other hand, almost in a copy-paste manner are talking about the potential the company has long term. I don't think the stock will go much further down iMHO.
Guys, will be in the office tomorrow and as I simply haven't had time to look about any news, ANR, reports etc at the terminal, will do it tomorrow for you.

don't lose your nerves, stay long and strong, enjoy life and keep on supporting this revolutionary company!

wish you all a lovely weekend