Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[woof]

A question:
Would Elon be posting April Fools Day jokes online if Tesla was going to tank during the Q1 ER?

Apparently it's a sign that Elon is "desperate":

"[Musk] used to never say anything and now he's tweeting every other day about different things that are coming out," Winer observed.
Musk's behavior appeared as "desperation" to Winer.

Wedbush Director Of Equity Trading: Elon Musk's Tweets Appear Desperate - Yahoo Finance

I love the "never used to say anything" line. Did he forget about the 5 part trilogy? The tsunami of hurt?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Apparently it's a sign that Elon is "desperate":

Wedbush Director Of Equity Trading: Elon Musk's Tweets Appear Desperate - Yahoo Finance

The fact that Elon tweets is further proof that demand is dropping.

 

[EnergyMax]

Apparently it's a sign that Elon is "desperate":

Wedbush Director Of Equity Trading: Elon Musk's Tweets Appear Desperate - Yahoo Finance

I love the "never used to say anything" line. Did he forget about the 5 part trilogy? The tsunami of hurt?

No kidding. The 5 part trllogy was only 2 years ago. This Winer guy is a newb

Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[yesla]

Total respect for Watson, but my understanding is it's a well implemented narrow AI that excels at answering natural language queries. While that's an impressive feat and likely trail-blazed the field, I don't think that alone qualifies it to be at forefront of AI research today.

To me, something like Deep Mind's approach is much more fascinating and could be the basis of strong/full AI.

I totally agree with you. Yet I will respond with It doesn’t matter if deep learning mimics the brain or Watson is cognitive. It matters if they work
As a product, it is only as useful or as powerful as the people who build applications with. But the point of it is, IBM is still quite relevant in this space, and maybe not everyone knows because they operate behind the scene. Just thought I'd share my point of view of why IBM isn't just another dinosaur.

 

[Causalien]

Who exactly has bots that scour the internet for supposed info and then actually trade on it automatically?

Ask the people in the industry on this forum. My information is outdated. The first one was a hedge fund that scrapes twitter. Went kaput a couple of years ago. There's at least a 5 year improvement in AI since then.

 

[Causalien]

So Porche's Model S equivalent has quad electric motors. Obviously they see some performance gain by going from 2 to 4. What's the benefit?

 

[hobbes]

Who exactly has bots that scour the internet for supposed info and then actually trade on it automatically?

Our imagination does - someone must be responsible for this misery! And bots can´t defend themselves, easy solution to blame them .

Seriously, I would guess that there are probably bots looking for information, but I can hardly imagine they actually make the final trading solution. Disclaimer: Know nothing more about that than I read around here.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Haha. Elon's Tweets are clearly intended to influence the media narrative, not to create demand. Tweets create buzz, and buzz shifts the medias focus from the "opinion" of some 1 star analyst, to information that is correct. Journalists report on the topics that are trending. If Elon's Tweets are affecting demand, it's a sign of strong demand, not the other way around.

The rate at which Elon Musk and Tesa Motors Twitter followers is an indication of demand, and demand appears to be increasing rapidly.

Check Your Twitter Stats - Twitter Counter

 

[FluxCap]

Ask the people in the industry on this forum. My information is outdated. The first one was a hedge fund that scrapes twitter. Went kaput a couple of years ago. There's at least a 5 year improvement in AI since then.

There aren't many actual financial professionals left here on this forum, sadly. But you are very correct about AI improvements. I have friends paid very well to be sure their firms' AI is better than competition.

The bots do indeed trade on tweets, and trade with each other in fractions of a second based on preset algorithms designed to fake each other out.

For the uninitiated, you may wish to start here:

Flash Boys - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Algorithmic trading - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[FANGO]

So Porche's Model S equivalent has quad electric motors. Obviously they see some performance gain by going from 2 to 4. What's the benefit?

Model S equivalent? I'm not aware of any car that exists that is a Model S equivalent from any company.

Or are you talking about a press release? Press releases have zero motors....

What I'm saying is that we shouldn't talk about other cars as if they exist when they don't. I'm tired of concept cars and you all should be too. Show us the goddamn cars already, Porsche.

Anyway, to your actual question: the reason Tesla started with one is because it's easier. Less parts, less complexity. There's also the issue of unsprung weight, which traditionally is thought of as a bad thing (but I've seen some newer information which suggests it doesn't really make as big a difference as tradition suggests). The thing is, the Tesla is a real car, not a concept, not a press release, not a one-off, an engineering exercise, a showpiece, etc. An actual car that people have to build and buy and own and drive and service. So far, almost every electric concept has a bunch of motors on it, but not a lot of final production cars do.

Will Porsche keep theirs? Well, *if* they even make the car, *maybe* they'll stick with 4 motors, as complexity and difficulty/cost of repair has never stopped Porsche from doing anything before, they do have more engineering prowess than most of the other car companies out there (thinnest kid at fat camp), and 4 motors *could* provide performance benefit - you could eliminate the half-shafts and simplify the gearbox by removing the differential and therefore possibly save weight (and therefore space, which means better control over center of gravity), and also you can do "torque vectoring" and run the inside/outside wheels at different speeds, which helps cornering, and would be much better even than an expensive, complex and comperatively dumb limited-slip differential (which the Model S does not have, because those are primarily used in racing applications).

So, if cost and complexity are no object, if scaling drivetrain production is not difficult either because they're selling less units or they have more resources available to scale up production more quickly, then maybe 4 motors would be nice, because it would provide performance benefits. But it's really not necessary, and that's why nobody does it (that and nobody else is making performance EVs...because they're scared of making their high-margin performance ICE cars feel like junk).

 

[Johan]

Model S equivalent? I'm not aware of any car that exists that is a Model S equivalent from any company.

Or are you talking about a press release? Press releases have zero motors....

What I'm saying is that we shouldn't talk about other cars as if they exist when they don't. I'm tired of concept cars and you all should be too. Show us the goddamn cars already, Porsche.

Anyway, to your actual question: the reason Tesla started with one is because it's easier. Less parts, less complexity. There's also the issue of unsprung weight, which traditionally is thought of as a bad thing (but I've seen some newer information which suggests it doesn't really make as big a difference as tradition suggests). The thing is, the Tesla is a real car, not a concept, not a press release, not a one-off, an engineering exercise, a showpiece, etc. An actual car that people have to build and buy and own and drive and service. So far, almost every electric concept has a bunch of motors on it, but not a lot of final production cars do.

Will Porsche keep theirs? Well, *if* they even make the car, *maybe* they'll stick with 4 motors, as complexity and difficulty/cost of repair has never stopped Porsche from doing anything before, they do have more engineering prowess than most of the other car companies out there (thinnest kid at fat camp), and 4 motors *could* provide performance benefit - you could eliminate the half-shafts and simplify the gearbox by removing the differential and therefore possibly save weight (and therefore space, which means better control over center of gravity), and also you can do "torque vectoring" and run the inside/outside wheels at different speeds, which helps cornering, and would be much better even than an expensive, complex and comperatively dumb limited-slip differential (which the Model S does not have, because those are primarily used in racing applications).

So, if cost and complexity are no object, if scaling drivetrain production is not difficult either because they're selling less units or they have more resources available to scale up production more quickly, then maybe 4 motors would be nice, because it would provide performance benefits. But it's really not necessary, and that's why nobody does it (that and nobody else is making performance EVs...because they're scared of making their high-margin performance ICE cars feel like junk).

Great post. Agree 100%.

Rimac is building the Concept_one with 4 motors. That's more than a press release but definitely not a production car (not mass produced by any standard)

 

[Causalien]

BTW, I took this pic to attack bear FUD sters with. It's a wall of ****. I will be misusing this in the near future.

 

[Lessmog]

BTW, I took this pic to attack bear FUD sters with. It's a wall of ****. I will be misusing this in the near future.

We're all so happy you got all that out of your system! What a relief!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP just went from -1% to +1% in Frankfurt in a second.
Any reason?
I can't find any here...

This is not related, but the Telegraph in UK found seven reasons for Model S being a game changer.
They might be a bit late but great video.

 

[FANGO]

After hours, thin volume.

 

[JRP3]

Great post. Agree 100%.

Rimac is building the Concept_one with 4 motors. That's more than a press release but definitely not a production car (not mass produced by any standard)

To be clear, the Rimac still uses a gear box and half shafts for each motor, they are not wheel motors. I have no idea what Porsche will actually do, but it may not be wheel motors, in fact I would bet against it.

 

[Lump]

 

[jbdoom]

View attachment 76752

Awesome, thank you! Do you have the 2nd page as well?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Eisenmann press release out on building two paint shops (one for bodies and one for parts) for Telsa Motors in two stages from last Tuesday here.
Press digest on Automobil-Produktion from yesterday here.
Both sources via google translate.

Lot's of positive things:
- Going from 30000 to 500000 annual capacity in two stages (already prepared for Model S, X and 3(!))
- Biggest single contract ever for Eisenmann ("three digit million Euro")
- Eisenmann shares Tesla's the goal of energy efficiency
- Most modern paint shop globally (less energy consumption, less pollution, most versatile, ...)
- Eisenmann is geographically located close to Mercedes in Germany and very happy to be part of the success story of Tesla Motors

 

[dalalsid]

Eisenmann press release out on building two paint shops (one for bodies and one for parts) for Telsa Motors in two stages from last Tuesday here.
Press digest on Automobil-Produktion from yesterday here.
Both sources via google translate.

Lot's of positive things:
- Going from 30000 to 500000 annual capacity in two stages (already prepared for Model S, X and 3(!))
- Biggest single contract ever for Eisenmann ("three digit million Euro")
- Eisenmann shares Tesla's the goal of energy efficiency
- Most modern paint shop globally (less energy consumption, less pollution, most versatile, ...)
- Eisenmann is geographically located close to Mercedes in Germany and very happy to be part of the success story of Tesla Motors

Thanks for the summary. I couldnt read anything beyond "iron man".