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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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CALGARYARSENAL
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Buddyroe
Active Member
I think the thing that scares the shorts is that they were all wrong about Tesla missing its sales forecast for Q1 because of the China situation. They were licking their chops for a number around 6000. Now they've got to be wondering what the numbers will be like if/when Tesla gets things turned around in China. Their stories sure do change a lot though:
When Tesla first announced they would ship cars to China: proof that demand is falling because Tesla has to enter new markets to sell their cars. Eventually they will run out of new markets.
When sales lagged in China: Tesla is doomed because they can't sell cars in China and demand is falling in the rest of the world. Tesla will be bankrupt soon.
When Tesla exceeds their Q1 guidance: Tesla is still FAR short of reaching 55k for the year. They will have to sell way more than 10k per quarter to meet the 55k for the year. They'l never do it. Besides, the 10k included the 1400 that slipped from 2014 into 2015. So really, it was a miss [so....does that mean that we should count the 1400 in 2014 and therefore Tesla met its guidance of 33k for the year? NOPE! They want it both ways. Don't count them in 2014 or 2015].
When Tesla first announced they would ship cars to China: proof that demand is falling because Tesla has to enter new markets to sell their cars. Eventually they will run out of new markets.
When sales lagged in China: Tesla is doomed because they can't sell cars in China and demand is falling in the rest of the world. Tesla will be bankrupt soon.
When Tesla exceeds their Q1 guidance: Tesla is still FAR short of reaching 55k for the year. They will have to sell way more than 10k per quarter to meet the 55k for the year. They'l never do it. Besides, the 10k included the 1400 that slipped from 2014 into 2015. So really, it was a miss [so....does that mean that we should count the 1400 in 2014 and therefore Tesla met its guidance of 33k for the year? NOPE! They want it both ways. Don't count them in 2014 or 2015].
sundaymorning
Active Member
Easily the best quote over the weekend. Better get in while it's still cheap.
Keep this up vgrin, very informative.
Short interest likely increased when the China story broke. At least 20 million more shorts still need to cover. Who is going to blink first? Not Calgary L is my bet.
Small point: it's Easter Monday, so many European investors have a bank holiday. Some may be trading in the US, of course, but there's a chance for another round of action tomorrow when all EU investors are back at their desks.
And I didn't think that 200 would be so easy:biggrin:
Me neither and glad I was wrong, but seeing the price action and volume so far it's clear to me that there are institutions buying (or covering shorts). When institutions make large orders (I.e. Hundreds of thousands of shares or more) they often use VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) orders that take the course of the day to play out. I am not allowed to day trade but if I could I would have considered buying a lot of shares to sell near the close as I am pretty sure the price has another few bucks at least (possibly 10+) to run before the end of the day. It could even continue tomorrow as some institutions even break up their VWAP orders over 2 days, but tomorrow could also be a minor profit taking correction too so that would be more of a gamble in my opinion for a day trader to hold overnight.
It is very nice to see the positive sentiment return, both for myself and the short term thread. We (I) have been in a funk for some time. While I expected some positive action today I have to tip my hat to FLUXCap......I did not think we would see this type of short covering. My April 10th $200 calls are officially a 10 bagger.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Could be the case. It could also be a gamble for longs not to jump on board now.
Nicely done! Sadly I missed out somewhat on the timing of this pop as the majority of my super aggressive plays were expiring last week...sigh. But I did catch a good bit of this one. Glad others did too.
I'm positioning for a move to $225 now. Timing is my only debate.
Caveat emptor: don't follow me, I'm not a financial adviser, trade at your own risk, etc. etc.
Gtoffo
Member
It never feels "enough" when the stock pops like this. One always wishes they had risked more. But experience has taught me that greed will kill you. This game is about patience and discipline.
I bought back my short term protective calls last week. Happy to see +85% next to my long calls. Not a 10 bagger but that's enough I think....
NOTICE TO ALL (including self): if you missed this train don't throw caution to the winds and try to "catch up at all costs". Especially when reading some of the nice gains that people will be making and posting about. The long term game will work out (stock, leaps). But the short term post "pop" is now extremely dangerous again. Don't burn yourselves out there.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Beijing to Adpot "Odd-Even Plate Number Rule" If AQI Tops 300 for 3 Days
The operative wording being "...besides pure electric vehicles..."
On heavy pollution days, the Chinese government will limit the fleet of cars that can actually be on the road until things get better. It won't apply to BEVs though... those can be driven every day no matter what.
Gtoffo
Member
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Very good advice! This has happened to me in the past, afraid to miss the boat.
People tend to boast their best plays here. But be aware, when you read someone has gained xx %, it doesn't mean they actually made money. For example: my Jun 19 $240 calls are up 107% today, I feel really good! However, I got them at $12.50 so I'm still under water.
TOTALLY agree. The April 10 calls were more luck than skill and I am not buying right now. Since Q3 2014 my overall TSLA is still down, despite today.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'd like to give folks an update on the Blind Faith Price Targets. At a current share price of $206, implied discount stands at 30.98% which is in the 10.67 percentile in bullishness for the last 12 months. At this sentiment, the BFPT of end of year is $251. If sentiment continues to improve to the first or second quartile level, then share price could exit the year at $275 to $312, respectively. If sentiment falls back to the annual low, then we exit the year at $229.
So currently the discount is high enough to to attract long-term investors, while the prospect for sentiment to balance out over the next 9 months looks promising too. The downside BFPT of $229 end of year should give confidence to buyers.
So currently the discount is high enough to to attract long-term investors, while the prospect for sentiment to balance out over the next 9 months looks promising too. The downside BFPT of $229 end of year should give confidence to buyers.
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