Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Citizen-T]

Honestly, I think they need to have FWD version of Model 3. Offers best-price/best-traction for those wanting base models. Consumers really do want to have better traction during rain and snow events. Sure, could be either RWD, FWD or DWD options available upon ordering. That would make the most sense to let the customer choose.

FWD doesn't offer "best-traction" when your front end isn't weighed down by a ICE.

 

[eepic]

FWD doesn't offer "best-traction" when your front end isn't weighed down by a ICE.

I thought it had more to do with the push vs. pull? In any case, please please let there be an AWD version of Model 3 at launch for signatures.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think it's the latter.

As someone else said earlier, they are also making room in the product range for maxxed-out versions of the Model 3.

There will be a $34,990 stripper/RWD version of the Model 3, but there may also be a $65,000 version if you add every available option. The only thing you won't get at that point will be the interior dimensions of the Model S !!!

Well as the Model 3 won't enter production for another 2-2.5 years, I don't see why they would need to start making room for it now.
If the analysis published today about the S60 only accounting for 10% of sales is true though, replacing that product at a time they are about to have increased production capacity does make sense.

 

[Johan]

Though is quite off topic for the short term TSLA thread, let's all agree that with a single electric motor, in the more powerful range (like Tesla, think 0-60 in 6.5 seconds or faster) and 50/50 weight distribution RWD is going to be overall better and more natural than FWD.

Back on topic: with regards to stock price, remember that all the hype here on TMC is us enthusiasts. The general media and investor world have likely absorbed very little of these news due to very low key announcement from Tesla and little press coverage. Even with the big rise in share price after the delivery beat pre-announcement these news will trickle out over the coming days and will drive the stock higher. There will also be news as to how they achieved 70kWh and if those news are a new chemistry that's SIGNIFICANT news with regards to future products, the Gigafactory and stationary storage.

This is one of those times where we here on TMC are ahead of the market. If I had more cash to deploy I would be a buyer of May and June calls today.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Honestly, I think they need to have FWD version of Model 3. Offers best-price/best-traction for those wanting base models. Consumers really do want to have better traction during rain and snow events. Sure, could be either RWD, FWD or DWD options available upon ordering. That would make the most sense to let the customer choose.

FWD traction is better in ICE cars because the engine is over the drive-wheels. Not true on EVs. Moreover, going up hills (when traction in snow matters most), weight is shifted to the rear wheels, so RWD is the better location for a single motor. It's also simpler mechanically=cheaper.

 

[sub]

The 70D is going to give tesla a net gain on orders. I'm one that has been on the fence for 2 years about buying Model S. I was never interested in the 60 but the news today interested me enough that I visited the design studio for the first time in almost a year. Even though I can afford it I personally can't justify it still. My plan is a maxed out model 3, reservation #1.

I think the 70D will pull in a lot of fence sitters however.

 

[Drax7]

Model x needs higher KWH battery to make allowances for more weight and higher drag.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

I don't think Tesla is concerned with maximizing margins. They have achieved a very nice margin, and I think they are keen to maintain it, but I think we need to look at everything they do from now on in terms of Model X and Model 3. For instance, the dual motor Model S is Tesla's way of proving out the dual motor architecture and software that will be used in Model X. This de-risks the Model X launch since that's one less "new thing" in Model X.

In that light, my guess is that the 70D battery is a next generation battery that is intended for Model X. I don't know if that means a new cell or what, but this is probably another piece of Model X that is being launched early. Maybe their production capability for this new battery is only enough to support the demand for entry-level Model S right now. Once it spins up a bit more they'll replace the 85kwh car with a 100kwh version (or something like that). Then, they'll launch Model X in 70D and 100D versions having already worked out the kinks in pack production.

My guess is Model 3 will be delivered with 50 and 70 kwh. This way they get to test the latter in model s/x. Expect 90 or 100 kwh with launch of model x, and with S prior to this.

 

[jhm]

The 70D is going to give tesla a net gain on orders. I'm one that has been on the fence for 2 years about buying Model S. I was never interested in the 60 but the news today interested me enough that I visited the design studio for the first time in almost a year. Even though I can afford it I personally can't justify it still. My plan is a maxed out model 3, reservation #1.

I think the 70D will pull in a lot of fence sitters however.

I totally agree. This is going to push a lot of fence-sitters over the edge. Value oriented consumers might have balked at the high price of a standard 85, while thinking that the 60 was still not enough value for the money. This puts some in an awkward place where they could afford a 60, but felt the better value was at the 85 price point. So now at a price point midway between the 60 and 85, the 70D offers a better value than even the standard 85. So value oriented consumers should really like the 70D. whatever combined volume of orders for standard 85 and 60 should be more than doubled with orders for 70D.

 

[Johan]

I totally agree. This is going to push a lot of fence-sitters over the edge. Value oriented consumers might have balked at the high price of a standard 85, while thinking that the 60 was still not enough value for the money. This puts some in an awkward place where they could afford a 60, but felt the better value was at the 85 price point. So now at a price point midway between the 60 and 85, the 70D offers a better value than even the standard 85. So value oriented consumers should really like the 70D. whatever combined volume of orders for standard 85 and 60 should be more than doubled with orders for 70D.

Agree 100%. Furthermore the low uptake of 40kWh, and relatively low ratio of 60 vs 85 sales should tell Tesla that the S/X consumers are ready to pay high ASP and that the customers are willing to pay for more range and better performance. So I would be very surprised if there isn't a 90-100 kWh model in the works.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

Here in Norway Tesla can expect a HUGE increase in demand. First, most people don't even know you can get a "normal" model S with AWD. All the attention was directed at the P85D. With this announcement people will be aware of the cheaper option. Already hit the news..and normal 85D didn't even get one article/review. This year will be record deliveries here, i expect more than 2000 cars starting from Q3. Q2 already will reach about 1500..

 

[GardenEye]

Crikey those boys at Tesla don't hang about. It might be that TM are standardising the 'experience' and dual wheel becomes the norm for all cars. This would certainly be a game changer for the automotive industry and (obviously) set Tesla (further) apart from the rest for years to come, which similar car would you buy with the same price?
"This one here has a dual motor drive - a more advanced 4 wheel drive system than anything else yet invented - Or this interesting looking BMW, sir". (Fully aware no dealershits)
My new S85 green rocket is suddenly feeling old.
Quick question, is the X being created on the same platform as the Model S/D? - if so then that's why we are seeing the announcement now. The 2 cars will probably start manufacture at a similar time and they probably need to standardise the newer technology.
oh yes ...Will we see a late rally to 210 this evening?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Nasdaq and Tesla strong today. Giddy up

 

[FANGO]

I'm a fan of continually updating the product, but I hope this makes them even more secure in a lower price point for the Model 3 because all I see is them taking away the cheapest version for more expensive ones........and I've never been a "bear" before. First it was the 40, then making the D, now taking away the 60 for a $5,000 more version. They are taking a lot of steps backward to make a giant leap forward for the cheaper "mass" version.......we shall see.....

It's not easy trying to win over naysayers when the company is constantly upping the price on the cheapest version.

Yup.

 

[eloder]

I'm a fan of continually updating the product, but I hope this makes them even more secure in a lower price point for the Model 3 because all I see is them taking away the cheapest version for more expensive ones........and I've never been a "bear" before. First it was the 40, then making the D, now taking away the 60 for a $5,000 more version. They are taking a lot of steps backward to make a giant leap forward for the cheaper "mass" version.......we shall see.....

It's not easy trying to win over naysayers when the company is constantly upping the price on the cheapest version.

I'd prefer to echo others' sentiments--changes such as this are going to eventually differentiate the difference between the Model 3 and Model S. Nobody is going to spend $20-30k more for 20% more interior space compared to a fully loaded Model 3 in a couple of years. It'll also keep the Model S competitive and viable with the X coming out. I think this help set up for an upgraded 85 model in the future on the way for X's production, ensuring plenty of stock action between now and Model X. I really don't want to sell any short-term profits at this time...

 

[ScepticMatt]

I'm a fan of continually updating the product, but I hope this makes them even more secure in a lower price point for the Model 3 because all I see is them taking away the cheapest version for more expensive ones........and I've never been a "bear" before. First it was the 40, then making the D, now taking away the 60 for a $5,000 more version. They are taking a lot of steps backward to make a giant leap forward for the cheaper "mass" version.......we shall see.....

They are production-limited right now. So it makes no sense to sell a cheaper, lower margin version.
Once that changes I expect to see a price reduction or a higher trim level for the same money.

 

[austinEV]

I'm a fan of continually updating the product, but I hope this makes them even more secure in a lower price point for the Model 3 because all I see is them taking away the cheapest version for more expensive ones........and I've never been a "bear" before. First it was the 40, then making the D, now taking away the 60 for a $5,000 more version. They are taking a lot of steps backward to make a giant leap forward for the cheaper "mass" version.......we shall see.....

It's not easy trying to win over naysayers when the company is constantly upping the price on the cheapest version.

Tesla doesn't raise prices: Bears: "Tesla is obviously struggling with demand. If they are so constrained, why not raise prices or at least enough to keep up with forex?"
Tesla raises prices: Bears: "Tesla is a rotten company that only wants to make money by selling toys to rich. If they really cared about promoting EV's they would lower prices bringing them into reach of more buyers"

 

[FANGO]

Where was the "Time to reveal the 7" event? I do think 70D is more attractive on price and features than the 60. But how many would choose a 70D over an 85D when the difference is also $10K in savings? I surely don't need or want 85kWh and really only need like 40 kWh for most longer drives.

Yup.

Continually raising the base price does put the 35k base price of the Model 3 into question for me. Maybe they're just making room for it, but why would they do that now and not in a few years when they actually have a product to fill that price range?

 

[Robert.Boston]

Quick question, is the X being created on the same platform as the Model S/D? - if so then that's why we are seeing the announcement now. The 2 cars will probably start manufacture at a similar time and they probably need to standardise the newer technology.
oh yes ...Will we see a late rally to 210 this evening?

Yes, X and S share a platform, so I agree that the changes we see today presage the new X skateboard.

We seem to be bouncing around $208 this afternoon, which may be viewed either as a nice pop from the ~$180 levels of late March, or as an anemic rise relative to the >$250 levels of last November. What is the market looking for to regain those heights?

 

[FANGO]

I think it's the latter.

As someone else said earlier, they are also making room in the product range for maxxed-out versions of the Model 3.

There will be a $34,990 stripper/RWD version of the Model 3, but there may also be a $65,000 version if you add every available option. The only thing you won't get at that point will be the interior dimensions of the Model S !!!

I'm sure there will be a performance Model 3 which targets the BMW M3 in price and performance. But why make room for it now? The car isn't coming out for 2-3 years.