Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[InTheShadows]

The reason for the 70D has nothing to do with demand. It's commonality with the Model X. There's no way Tesla would offer a vehicle with less than 200 mile range, and the 60kw battery pack would approach that in the X. Same with the front end...why not make every vehicle offered a 4WD?

I agree. I think it's all about simplifying the lines. Look at how many fewer options there are now than there used to be. Some of those options are software related only.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sorry for getting a bit off topic here (was thinking about this recently but the talks about range of new Model S 70D kicked things off) and writing about future range of Model 3:
- One of the unique selling points of Tesla Motors is long range EVs.
- The range of the Roadster did not have any competition.
- The range of the Roadster got bigger over time (incremental product updates).
- The range of the cheaper successor Model S (as in the secret master plan) has longer range compared to the previous model.
- The range of Model S does not have any competition.
- The range of Model S is getting bigger over time (8% YoY, 60kWh -> 70kWh).
- SuperCharger network and vehicle range is not a linear, not a multiple, but a square function (as points in a plane),
thus I have to admit that I do not see any reason Model 3 will have smaller range but bigger range compared to second generation vehicles mentioned in the secret masterplan!
-> The range of Model 3 will not have any competition.
I might be wrong, but I think history supports this theory and I just do not see it happening in any other way.

Tesla is selling high performance long range EVs, this will not change with Model 3!
Improvements during the last years and during the next years will allow Tesla Motors to produce such a vehicle at about half the price of Model S.

 

[Gerasimental]

guys, I think the introdcution of the 70D is a very smooth move and I don't think this model will canibalize the P85D but if I look now at the Swiss homepage of TM, it seems that the P85D is experiencing an improvement in terms of engine power:wink:. I guess this is a typo.

View attachment 77412

Bit of an odd typo since the total power and that for each individual motor are incorrect and yet they still add up correctly.

70D is advertised as 275 miles / 442 km in Europe btw.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

Looking at the future and trying to foresee the battery packs from today's platform I guesstimate these packages:

Model S: 70, 85 and 100 kwh.
Model X: 85 and 100 kwh. (Not 70 because of weight/aero.)
Model 3: 50 and 70 kwh. (250/300 mile EPA)

 

[cctv]

I would caution all of us to avoid use of the word "cannabalize." It has an ugly connation to it that may be unintended and in this case unwarranted. The 70D may well have higher GM and gross profit per kWh than the 85D. If so, then shareholders are better rewarded when customers chose the 70D over the 85D. This is an upgrade.

Would any of us say that switching an order from 85D to P85D is cannabalization? No it is an upgrade. Likewise switching from 85D to 70D is an upgrade.

Finally, the 60 had higher efficiency than the 85, so it is not appropriate to scale from the 85. Rather, 242.67 = 208 × 70 ÷ 60. So you get this kind of range simply by swapping out higher density cell for lower keeping mass the same while increasing kWh by 10.

You raised very interesting points.

Can you elaborate more on how 70D has higher profit margin than 85D? How about 60?

Any information shows Tesla are using different density cells?

 

[Drax7]

TM provided contradicting information. In blog page, it states 240 miles at 65 mph, and in order pages it states 240 miles EPA. At this point, the chance of improving battery chemistry in a production cell is almost ZERO.

Sold out bull reasoning .

 

[aznt1217]

Sold out bull reasoning .

Not really. I get what he's saying but it can be articulate better. He's saying the live cells in the production packs won't be improved via chemistry, but that's not saying there are new cells in the future. I don't get the point about contradicting information logic is still the same as before for rated miles.

 

[uselesslogin]

One interesting thing about the 70D is that it only has a range of 240 miles @65mph (or maybe 250 since I have seen both numbers) If we assume it is 240 miles @65 mph then we also know Tesla says the 85D is 295 miles @65 mph. So you are still getting 45-55 more miles with the 85D. The EPA and highway numbers are closer presumably because battery pack is lighter and this provides for better city range but city range doesn't help you on long trips.

 

[pGo]

It is hard to believe 70D has same margins as 85D. The difference here is $666/kWh user is paying to get 85D configuration.

 

[Yuri_G]

The 70D officially has 240 miles based on EPA testing. 101 city/102 highway (MPGe)

Compare Side-by-Side

It is definitely more efficient than the other battery options. The question is where do the new gains come from?

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Yesterday I intentionally let this thread ramble on about the 70D announcement—it was, after all, the big news of the day and clearly drove the stock price.

Today, not so much. There's a lot of discussion about the 70D over here: Tesla cuts 60kWh Model S, entry-level Model S is now 70D.

Let's keep it there unless it's about the stock price in the short term. Or find another thread suitable for your idea (long-term? Q1 earnings?).

Thanks,
Robert

 

[doggusfluffy]

Well, regarding the short term price. After I've finally, and painfully had it burned into memory (thrice) not to hold calls during this sustained downtrend, I of course missed out on these recent big overnight gains. I'm wondering if gapping up after hours will become a new trend and holding calls now won't end in instantly vaporized tears?

 

[InTheShadows]

Well, regarding the short term price. After I've finally, and painfully had it burned into memory (thrice) not to hold calls during this sustained downtrend, I of course missed out on these recent big overnight gains. I'm wondering if gapping up after hours will become a new trend and holding calls now won't end in instantly vaporized tears?

I don't know, my outlook right now is tread very cautiously. IMO the turn around is here, however we are not out of the water yet and I think technically we could very easily slip into the downtrend channel again. However if we do I personally don't think it will be for that long. I am nervous about April and May positions. June not quite as much, however a dip below $200 could easily happen again and really hurt options expiring in the next three months.

I like September options right now. Close enough that you get some good leverage yet far enough out that we should see two or three of our big catalyst revealed by that time so I view them as much less risky compared to the next 3 months.

Disclaimer: my past 12 month track record is horrendous so one should probably do the opposite of what I do.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I don't know, my outlook right now is tread very cautiously. IMO the turn around is here, however we are not out of the water yet and I think technically we could very easily slip into the downtrend channel again. However if we do I personally don't think it will be for that long. I am nervous about April and May positions. June not quite as much, however a dip below $200 could easily happen again and really hurt options expiring in the next three months.

I like September options right now. Close enough that you get some good leverage yet far enough out that we should see two or three of our big catalyst revealed by that time so I view them as much less risky compared to the next 3 months.

Disclaimer: my past 12 month track record is horrendous so one should probably do the opposite of what I do.

I mean, I don't want to get into a pissing contest here...but I'm reasonably confident I can outperform your track record in a race to the bottom! :tongue:

I was thinking the prices for shorter term calls seem very high compared to what seems like excellent value in September as well. I was pondering whether that indicates the market is actually expecting the price to react positively to the upcoming news...and I should pay the premiums anyway. Or patience is a new skill to pretend I'm developing?

 

[ggr]

Trading volume today is well below average, and I can't think of an explanation for it. Even with no news, I thought there would have been people who took short term positions in the last couple of days who would still be driving the volume up? Either way, good to be green (unless I just jinxed us).

 

[FluxCap]

Ye olde drift-up movement. Haven't seen this daily chart in a while, but I'm not complaining.

 

[Curt Renz]

Someone should inform the Wall Street Journal they cited a very biased (probably fake) hedge fund manager, who spends his entire day ranting about Tesla on Twitter and talking with himself via another Twitter account , as an authority for an article.

Tesla to Upgrade Slower-Selling Version of Model S - WSJ

Indeed, the Wall Street Journal and its reporter Mike Ramsey have sunk to new journalistic lows, if they present as a credible source to readers the manager of a puny $2 million hedge fund operated out of an apartment. That TSLA short selling news source has been constantly denigrating Elon Musk and Tesla Motors through Seeking Alpha and Twitter ever since the TSLA IPO in June of 2010.

I researched guests far more thoroughly before inviting them on my TV financial news program. Nowadays some financial reporters appear too lazy to consult reputable sources or company management, and eagerly print whatever someone with a vested interest shoves their way.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, Consumer Reports has in fact bought a P85D. it will be months before we see a full review, but they already put out a short video with a couple of insane mode runs. I look forward to hearing how they rate the handling compared to the competition. I hope they have next gen seats heading their way to be swapped in, because the car they paid $130K for does not have them now, and that's arguably the biggest improvement to the interior Tesla has made in the past three years.

Why Consumer Reports Bought a Tesla Model S P85D - YouTube

 

[vgrinshpun]

fwiw, Consumer Reports has in fact bought a P85D. it will be months before we see a full review, but they already put out a short video with a couple of insane mode runs. I look forward to hearing how they rate the handling compared to the competition. I hope they have next gen seats heading their way to be swapped in, because the car they paid $130K for does not have them now, and that's arguably the biggest improvement to the interior Tesla has made in the past three years.

Why Consumer Reports Bought a Tesla Model S P85D - YouTube

This video is hilarious - a real gem.

Firstly, I’ve seen quite a few Consumer Reports car videos, but have never seen any of CR engineers giggling on camera…

Secondly, The CR Director of Automotive Testing was so excited to get his hands on P85D that he put the car on track even before he cared to charge it. :biggrin:

Note at the 1:48 mark in the video that car battery was only at 16% state of charge (41 miles), and power was consequently limited to “only” about 240kW (322 Hp). It did not keep the guy from giggling like a third-grader, however. I am looking forward to see video of the same guy flooring this car with fully charged battery and no power limit engaged…

Meltdown at (normally sober) CR...

This just demonstrates how much of a halo TM managed to create around it's products.

Priceless...

 

[ZenMan]

Love the rally into the close.