Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[BornToFly]

I have not seen any articles on the finance web sites talking about gigafactory opening next week. I don't think it is priced in at all. Out side of TMC and a few owners, it is not on the radar. If the stock loose ground today, a nice tweet could help stop the slide. How about: #Preparing for grand opening next week. #Production line running at full speed. #Gigafactory= cash cow

 

[BornToFly]

I have not seen any articles on the finance web sites talking about gigafactory opening next week. I don't think it is priced in at all. Out side of TMC and a few owners, it is not on the radar. If the stock loose ground today, a nice tweet could help stop the slide. How about: #Preparing for grand opening next week. #Production line running at full speed. #Gigafactory= cash cow

Oops, just noticed that he tweeted that recently. Great minds..... LOL

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, Elon has basically admitted that they were a mistake..

He admitted no such thing, not even basically.

In this case Elon exactly admitted to putting too much new technology into the first iteration of the X, and that the better way would have been to spread that new tech out over 2 or 3 iterations of the vehicle.

 

[MitchJi]

To me, demand and production are the only things that will have the most effect on the stock price, particularly in this period skepticism. Everything else is just sizzle.

When TE sales start to show up on the bottom line (soon) it won't be sizzle.

Yes that is Tesla's estimated cost, but we must consider consumer cost. Right now they charge $600/kWh for the 60 to 75 upgrade? So lets call it $300/kWh. We are still talking trillions of dollars of batteries to be paid up front by truckers/trucking companies, etc, vs billions of dollars of infrastructure for overhead lines invested by government and recouped on a per use basis through tolls. Of course there is a huge inertia to overcome to get the infrastructure built.

The upgrade price is clearly much larger than the basic pack charge, it's before the GF price reductions and the scale is less than truck packs.

I wish I could bet on the infrastructure not being built because I don't believe that it's ever going to happen or be cost effective. Building the infrastructure is betting on the fact that batteries are expensive, so they will always be expensive which JB said is incorrect, he said that they're about to fall off a cliff.

 

[TMSE]

I wish I could bet on the infrastructure not being built because I don't believe that it's ever going to happen or be cost effective. Building the infrastructure is betting on the fact that batteries are expensive, so they will always be expensive which JB said is incorrect, he said that they're about to fall off a cliff.

The current pack cost is around $190/kWh? This price is about to fall off the cliff? You mean due to GF volume, better chemistry, and larger size of 20700 cells? All combined the cliff fall from $190 should be no more than 30%, so effective pack cost of $130. Right?

 

[SBenson]

For Elon Musk, Tesla’s Impresario, the Latest Act Falls Flat

• Tesla’s ever-growing ambitions fuel concerns about cash burn

• The billionaire’s ‘Master Plan, Part Deux’ doesn’t wow all

 

[andrerodpt]

For Elon Musk, Tesla’s Impresario, the Latest Act Falls Flat

• Tesla’s ever-growing ambitions fuel concerns about cash burn

• The billionaire’s ‘Master Plan, Part Deux’ doesn’t wow all

Yes. Because nobody whats a "ever-growing" company. /facepalm

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Nice.

 

[Gerardf]

For Elon Musk, Tesla’s Impresario, the Latest Act Falls Flat

• Tesla’s ever-growing ambitions fuel concerns about cash burn

• The billionaire’s ‘Master Plan, Part Deux’ doesn’t wow all

SP moving up nicely.
Market seems to have done some thinking, and maybe realizes that it will be big spending.. but over 10 year period using money made with the M3 & TE.
MP-2 is basically TE + vision for automotive growth after Model-3.

 

[phigment]

Max pain at 225

 

[MitchJi]

The current pack cost is around $190/kWh? This price is about to fall off the cliff? You mean due to GF volume, better chemistry, and larger size of 20700 cells? All combined the cliff fall from $190 should be no more than 30%, so effective pack cost of $130. Right?

I quoted JB on falling off a cliff. The figures you are using are incorrect. It's under $190, and the 30% GF Reduction was a conservative estimate that didn't include the cell chemistry improvements or the fact that the GF production will be 3x what was planned. You might think that adding in anything for those is to aggressive but JB had some reasons for his extremely optimistic statements.

Even if you start with $190, use the 30%, and ten percent for cell chemistry you get $114. Please note that all of these figures are way bellow the $500 and $300 figures that I was refuting.

For Elon Musk, Tesla’s Impresario, the Latest Act Falls Flat

• Tesla’s ever-growing ambitions fuel concerns about cash burn

• The billionaire’s ‘Master Plan, Part Deux’ doesn’t wow all

Complete drivel. Should be on Seeking Losses.

 

[farzyness]

Max pain at 225

For the layman such as myself - what is actual meaning of "Max Pain", how do you arrive to it, and what are the implications if we breach that level?

 

[phigment]

For the layman such as myself - what is actual meaning of "Max Pain", how do you arrive to it, and what are the implications if we breach that level?

Maximum pain is a point where the majority of options expire worthless. With low volume you may see the stock gravitate to this value on fridays.
TSLA | maximum-pain.com

 

[Drax7]

max pleasure, either zero or infinite.

 

[Jeeps17]

So, looking ahead to SMP3, I predict:

- Earth's diminishing lithium supplies mean branching-out to Kuiper-Belt asteroid mining
- Tesla and Space X to merge, new name "The Company"
- The mining ships will be fully-autonomous, run by AI Minds called Mother
- Some ship staff will actually be androids
- Still manual labour jobs foreseen, especially in cargo bays
- Mineral exploration seen as a fantastic opportunity to encounter alien life-forms

You heard it here first folks!

The Company = Weyland-Yutani Corporation ?

 

[Lycanthrope]

The Company = Weyland-Yutani Corporation ?

Correct! You are today's lucky winner of a king)size chocolate-egg. Please look closely as you unwrap it...

 

[gigglehertz]

For the layman such as myself - what is actual meaning of "Max Pain", how do you arrive to it, and what are the implications if we breach that level?

Already answered, but let me just give my $0.02 - take MP into consideration to try and understand stock price movements but don't trust it too much. When I first heard about Max-Pain I thought I'd found the secret formula for predicting stock prices. The first several times I used it to swing trade TSLA and SCTY and make good money. There were even weeks when the sp at market close on Friday was within a couple of cents of Max Pain for the week. Unfortunately it works great until it doesn't. Unexpected good or bad news, FUD bit piece, analyst notes, or macro events tend to nullify it's predictive powers as traders react to news and dump/cover/cash out of options. It should be just another data point you use to make your own decisions.

 

[yesla]

SMP was simple to understand. Make expensive cars to fund production of mass production cars. simple.

SMP2 is a whole different animal. It necessarily requires believers to put on "future goggles" to see the world as Elon sees it. It is a future where governments are collaborating with enterprises to upgrade city planning and infrastructure. It is a wonderful world - CLEAN STREETS! no pollution (air/noise/traffic), a free-er society with easily accessible wireless broadband and traffic monitoring systems are not a new concept. I think Google is working with a municipal government to automate traffic flow... Cannot remember which city..

There is always the issue with the tendency to overestimate the beginning of the S curve, but there is already a huge demand for EV demonstrated by the number of S/X orders and M3 pre-orders. leading to further leverage / risk taking in accelerating the rate of development.

I dont know what the tipping point is that inspires the next level of confidence from shareholders. I guess the mr market will tell me...

 

[phigment]

Already answered, but let me just give my $0.02 - take MP into consideration to try and understand stock price movements but don't trust it too much. When I first heard about Max-Pain I thought I'd found the secret formula for predicting stock prices. The first several times I used it to swing trade TSLA and SCTY and make good money. There were even weeks when the sp at market close on Friday was within a couple of cents of Max Pain for the week. Unfortunately it works great until it doesn't. Unexpected good or bad news, FUD bit piece, analyst notes, or macro events tend to nullify it's predictive powers as traders react to news and dump/cover/cash out of options. It should be just another data point you use to make your own decisions.

Agreed. The only reason I mentioned it is because there was a pretty big gain with no other reason that I could think of.

 

[MitchJi]

So a bus with 4o people on it today is blown apart into, what, little driverless vans with an average of two each, a 20-fold increase in the number of vehicles? It doesn’t matter if they’re electric or driverless. Where will they all fit in the urban street? And when they take over, what room will be left for wider sidewalks, bike lanes, pocket parks, or indeed anything but a vast river of vehicles?

He's making up a worst case scenario, which isn't even completely accurate and using that as a basis for claiming that Elon is wrong and he is correct.

Even if you use his figures of 20x the small busses will be much smaller than buses with 40 passengers. They will also be more nimble and they won't all be on the same streets that he states are a requirement for buses. He does make some good points but I'm not going to bother going through an article that claims to prove Elon can be proven to be incorrect and which uses incorrect assumptions to "prove " his points.