sub
Active Member
I would phrase it as "greatest number" not "majority".
Like all other TA, works great until it doesn't.
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I would phrase it as "greatest number" not "majority".
Like all other TA, works great until it doesn't.
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
In the first place a big percent of the market didn't believe the SMP. Plus the main thing is the implementation of the plan. Who believed in 2006 that the plan would be implemented so well that the gen 3 car would have over 100k reservations within 12 hours and before it was even revealed?
For now all the market needs to believe is the following which will happen very soon. After pasting the quote I realized that the only thing that the market really needs to see now is that TE is ramping.
As with most of you, I found SMP2 to be visionary. The market wasn't impressed. What would it take to raise the SP with SMP2? Here's one:
Dear shareholders,
A new position, "Czar of stock price appreciation" has been mandated by some large shareholders. This individual's decisions will override those of Mr. Musk. Our Master Plan 2 is as follows:
* Tesla will dispense with this silly goal of making the planet a better place and focus on what's really important: short term profits
* While Tesla's staff strongly believes the SCTY acquisition makes sense, that acquisition has been abandoned, due to short-term market resistance
* Tesla has been working on some larger vehicles, but those projects have been shelfed in favor of reducing our R&D expenses. The real payoff for Tesla is getting Model 3 spun up without any distractions. In lieu of new products, Tesla will instead offer its current vehicles in 3 additional colors
* Service centers will now become profit centers, with increased fees for Tesla servicing
* A special 2-wheel drive "Bob Lutz" version of the Model S will become available within a year, with a gasoline-powered engine in the front of the car used to recharge the new 35kwh battery, giving the vehicle range of 400 miles and an EV range comparable to that of the Nissan Leaf.. This vehicle is being offered to those who might experience range-anxiety with purely-electrical vehicles.
* Rather than waiting for the 2Q ER, we want to let you know right now that more than 2100 vehicles/week are rolling off the Tesla assembly line at the moment. Catering to investors with short-term call options is a new focus of the new Tesla.
* Rather than risk offending the media by carrying on business without print advertising, Tesla will now be advertising regularly in Fortune magazine, the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and other fine publications. We feel the better editorial coverage this move will buy us more than compensates for the cost.
Dear shareholders,
A new position, "Czar of stock price appreciation" has been mandated by some large shareholders. This individual's decisions will override those of Mr. Musk. Our Master Plan 2 is as follows:
* Tesla will dispense with this silly goal of making the planet a better place and focus on what's really important: short term profits
* While Tesla's staff strongly believes the SCTY acquisition makes sense, that acquisition has been abandoned, due to short-term market resistance
* Tesla has been working on some larger vehicles, but those projects have been shelfed in favor of reducing our R&D expenses. The real payoff for Tesla is getting Model 3 spun up without any distractions. In lieu of new products, Tesla will instead offer its current vehicles in 3 additional colors
* Service centers will now become profit centers, with increased fees for Tesla servicing
* A special 2-wheel drive "Bob Lutz" version of the Model S will become available within a year, with a gasoline-powered engine in the front of the car used to recharge the new 35kwh battery, giving the vehicle range of 400 miles and an EV range comparable to that of the Nissan Leaf.. This vehicle is being offered to those who might experience range-anxiety with purely-electrical vehicles.
* Rather than waiting for the 2Q ER, we want to let you know right now that more than 2100 vehicles/week are rolling off the Tesla assembly line at the moment. Catering to investors with short-term call options is a new focus of the new Tesla.
* Rather than risk offending the media by carrying on business without print advertising, Tesla will now be advertising regularly in Fortune magazine, the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and other fine publications. We feel the better editorial coverage this move will buy us more than compensates for the cost.
callmesam
Member
*We will be turning off Autopilot until we can prove that it is 100% safe under every circumstance i.e. NEVER
larmor
Active Member
Love it: But also add: Tesla will project to make a car rivaling the leaf, i8 and porsche mission E to come out in 6 years from now, with 2000 mile range, charging in under 2 sec, however note some details are subject to change at the time of production...
dhrivnak
Active Member
But what is Tesla doing? Roadster replacement batteries at not $190/kWh but $390/KWh. And Elon says they are not making a profit on replacement packs.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
That would be because roadster replacement packs are hand made... Not very efficient.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You both forgot that TSLA's highest priority should always be doing whatever we can to trigger (multiple) short squeezes.
And they're not using the cells produced at the GF.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Bookfast, you are making a very bad argument. The 11 TWh batteries are needed to balance the global grid to put renewable energy into these truck whether you spend extra on poles and wire or not. So the question is where to put these batteries, not whether or not they need to exist.
You need to deal with this criticism or stop littering this thread with nonsense. Specifically, you need to argue that poles and wires for semis can ballance the grid as well as 11 TWh batteries as needed in a 100% renewable grid.
Well... as expected, the short term reaction to SMP2 is a big "meh" on the street. It's exciting for Tesla/Musk fans but its just more evidence of lunacy (or at least bankruptcy) as far as the rest of the industry or Tesla bears are concerned. The protective put options I chose ended up being a bit out of the money... but I was afraid of a much larger movement, diving towards $215 and possibly overshooting a bit. Holding $219 is actually better than I thought.
I am very conflicted about the next 2-3 months. I am afraid of Q2 ER due to the number of deliveries that were announced, and therefore a high level of finished goods inventory. Obviously, they have good cash flow with ABL against that finished goods inventory, but there will likely be some numbers that don't look good. I am afraid of the market reaction to the TSLA+SCTY merger. On the other hand, I don't think the Gigafactory progress and new scale has been priced in to the stock in any way. I think, at the moment, the feeling is that it is yet another unfulfilled and late project. Lots of possible goodies with Model 3 coming up, including possible final looking validation prototypes and confirmation of progress towards factory upgrades. The possibility of share recalls for the merger vote would be awesome if that pans out for the longs.
Basically, as a long term investor, there is probably no reason to be out of TSLA right now. But the short term is harder than usual to predict.
I am very conflicted about the next 2-3 months. I am afraid of Q2 ER due to the number of deliveries that were announced, and therefore a high level of finished goods inventory. Obviously, they have good cash flow with ABL against that finished goods inventory, but there will likely be some numbers that don't look good. I am afraid of the market reaction to the TSLA+SCTY merger. On the other hand, I don't think the Gigafactory progress and new scale has been priced in to the stock in any way. I think, at the moment, the feeling is that it is yet another unfulfilled and late project. Lots of possible goodies with Model 3 coming up, including possible final looking validation prototypes and confirmation of progress towards factory upgrades. The possibility of share recalls for the merger vote would be awesome if that pans out for the longs.
Basically, as a long term investor, there is probably no reason to be out of TSLA right now. But the short term is harder than usual to predict.
Sarcasm Alert
You bring up a good point that the opportunities for nitpicking Tesla's current business plan to find short-term gains is huge. While we're at it, how about that fellow who designed the Model S's top so that it's so strong it broke the Consumer Reports testing machine? Clearly this car is overengieered. If Tesla redesigned S and X to be comparable in safety to the competition, I bet we could eak out 4-5% gross margin improvement. Face it, the media forgives the other manufacturers for making vehicles that result in more than 30,000 deaths per year in the United States alone. Allow a single autopilot, fatality, though, and it's the end of the earth. There's short-term money in adjusting to the norm. Why strive for something truly remarkable?
I will stop arguing after this post. Yes the storage will exist. I am skeptical it is worth subjecting batteries to very high charge cycles while reducing useful freight capacity. The selling price for the batteries on the road only (2.2M trucks) may be around 2.2M x 1000 kWh x $200/kWh = $440B. At even $1M/mile overhead lines cost (excessive), that figure would cover almost 10X the length of all the interstates in the US.
Obviously it is in Tesla's (ours?) best interest to sell moar batteries, and if they invest in supercharger-like truck stops, maybe the all battery option will happen. I have yet to see how it is a more efficient use of energy, resources, or capital. I have no vested interest in overhead lines, I just thought investors would be interested to know that it is not automatic all trucks will have massive gigafactory supplied batteries onboard.
I wish they really did everything on your list except for the hybrid vehicle. Why not? just spend the next 2 years working on being a fast growing EV company that makes a ton of money. Then issue the same SMP2, when the headlines would declare EM a visionary genius? I mean he will still probably make it all work, but his plan has more funding asterisks than a Republican tax plan.
Your satirical plan would add credibility to the bank. That CREDIBILITY would allow him to leverage up and save the world. By building credibility first he will have more capital to go spread into other markets and save the world.
I don't run Tesla and shouldn't so I won't get my way. I love the enthusiasm. The stock valuation is not the issue. The issue is that he overextends and burns the whole thing down by trying to do too much too soon. Why the all-fired hurry? Slow down 50% to increase the chance of success 3 fold. I want to dial down the meter so that we actually get the stuff on his wish list.
Because it was already a part of SMP1.0. Solar panels and powerpack business can only grow as an add-on/upsell to current/prospective Tesla auto customers. The value proposition is in product bundling and minimal marketing costs.
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