Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

The Osborne Effect and TM colliding:

Top end S/X:
IMO, TM will need to release news of the 90 bat being a software limited 100 battery and that AP 2.0 hardware (software can come later) is being put into the X and S ASAP. I know of a number of people that are waiting on confirming existing orders and many with 'classic' Ss
also waiting because they *know* that a bigger battery and the AP 2.0 is coming and do not want to lay out $140K to see that they just missed on two important upgrades.

I know, TM is constantly improving the vehicles and you will always see something newer, shiner and better equipped moving forward but these are two big reasons to wait.

While I, or anyone else here, does not know how much of an impact this is having on demand it has to have an impact on these highest Gross Margin vehicle orders/deliveries.

IF any of you were in the market for a top end S or X at this time would you confirm your order today? My personal answer: NO way

 

[electracity]

A significant portion of model S owners are probably driving the most expensive vehicle they will ever own.

 

[Hogfighter]

For the 20th time: demand is not static. There are many levers that can be pulled if demand gets soft. Anyone see Elon in a gorilla outfit on late-night TV commercial yet? We've yet to see the impact of:

1) Model S refresh
2) Additional store openings
3) X quality issues that appear to have been abated
4) A/P 2.0, when released (sometime in the next few months)
5) 60KwH S and X production

Demand is fluid. So until I see Tesla employees hanging out in Fremont bars at noon on a Tuesday getting hammered, I'll believe what was stated in the quarterly letter....which is that production and demand are on track to support approximately 50,000 deliveries in 2H2016.

 

[AlMc]

For the 20th time: demand is not static. There are many levers that can be pulled if demand gets soft. Anyone see Elon in a gorilla outfit on late-night TV commercial yet? We've yet to see the impact of:

1) Model S refresh
2) Additional store openings
3) X quality issues that appear to have been abated
4) A/P 2.0, when released (sometime in the next few months)
5) 60KwH S and X production

Demand is fluid. So until I see Tesla employees hanging out in Fremont bars at noon on a Tuesday getting hammered, I'll believe what was stated in the quarterly letter....which is that production and demand are on track to support approximately 50,000 deliveries in 2H2016.

Time to pull the trigger on #4

 

[Krugerrand]

Time to pull the trigger on #4

No, just no. The last thing *I* want to read on this forum again is any drama over AP 2.0 not being 'ready'. Release 2.0 when it can cook eggs benedict, do the laundry, and take out the trash.

 

[schonelucht]

There was only drama because they were not upfront with how long it would take for the AP1.0 software to be ready. If they come out with the 2.0 hardware in September and just honestly state : "we are not going to charge you yet for the option, we will do that once the software is ready but it could take at least another year" I think that would be a good way to avoid the drama and still make a lot of people go forward with ordering a new car. On top of that, it would take some of the pressure of them of realising gross margins of 30% right now since they'd have free revenue coming in a few quarters later pretty much guaranteed. The (potential) stockholders of Tesla are forward-looking enough to accept such a proposition and squeeze the price higher.

 

[Cattledog]

No, just no. The last thing *I* want to read on this forum again is any drama over AP 2.0 not being 'ready'. Release 2.0 when it can cook eggs benedict, do the laundry, and take out the trash.

That would be the highly elusive AS 2.0, auto-spouse.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Buy some stock. Let's get this moving.

 

[Krugerrand]

There was only drama because they were not upfront with how long it would take for the AP1.0 software to be ready.

Or they really thought they'd have it done when they said they would but unexpected stuffs happened. Or it was a typical Elon Musk impossible deadline to reach, but without the impossibility of it all we wouldn't now be approaching 2.0 so quickly.

Having a view that someone is out to get you, or that there's always some nefarious, underhanded or intentional deceit going on is why there's drama.

 

[AlMc]

No, just no. The last thing *I* want to read on this forum again is any drama over AP 2.0 not being 'ready'. Release 2.0 when it can cook eggs benedict, do the laundry, and take out the trash.

My suggestion is to ASAP the 2.0 Hardware....or at the very least the wiring harnesses that would allow for a retrofit.
No need to rush out the software....that could be months away....but it would get people waiting for the 2.0 off the fence and buying more Ss

 

[Krugerrand]

My suggestion is to ASAP the 2.0 Hardware....or at the very least the wiring harnesses that would allow for a retrofit.
No need to rush out the software....that could be months away....but it would get people waiting for the 2.0 off the fence and buying more Ss

No. A number of people have proven that's a bad idea. It would just start the antics all over again like; 'I bought a 100k car and I was promised such and such when I bought it, and I've been waiting over 6 months now, I want what I paid for, etc., etc., etc.... No.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Breakout day? Longer the base the higher the space. Lest we forget.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Incidentally, the form 13F data for Q2 are trickling in, and these largest holders were increasing their positions, including Fidelity (they mentioned by 9%), Baillie Gifford (by 9.54%, or 1.14M shares), Vanguard (by 13.4%, or 0.58M shares), Bank of Montreal (by 6.8%, or 0.31M shares).

Wow! Apparently in Q2 Fidelity upped their stake in TSLA not by 9% as was reported in an article (do not recall which one), but by a whopping 26.7% or 4.37M shares. This makes it crystal clear (if there was any doubt) where they stand on the Solar City acquisition. I am wondering if this is the reason we are seeing the uptick.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So in Q2 four of the five largest institutional shareholders all increased their TSLA position, for a rather significant total of 6.4M shares. The Price T. Rowe did not report yet (the deadline is 45 calendar days after the end of the quarter)

 

[Nate the Great]

Yep. All just guesstimates.

My view is Q3 certainly gets a boost since 5000+ cars were in transit at end of Q2.

Tesla won't have the "production ramp-related delay" in getting cars on boats this qtr so "in transit" cars shouldn't be stuck on boats at end of Q3

I expect "in transit" cars will be down a few thousand to "2500" at end or Q3
Therefore, net boost to Q3 is 2500

My current understanding is that these are actually captured in ABL, in Q2. Asset Based Lending.

 

[Nate the Great]

I actually agree with this reasoning. I think non-US buyers have the most to lose with major hardware upgrades since the gap between order and receipt is so long. Wouldn't be much fun to receive an "old" car 5 weeks after everyone has been enjoying the "new" version. I'm guessing Tesla is willing to drop strong hints to such buyers (esp. PDL buyers).

I'll stick with my guess of new hardware coming in about 3 weeks (unannounced) followed by a late Sept reveal.

The negative to that, would mean a decrease in deliveries.

 

[FredTMC]

My current understanding is that these are actually captured in ABL, in Q2. Asset Based Lending.

?

We are Discussing deliveries in Q3...

 

[neroden]

If you guys see a vote triggered squeeze happening, and you are highly confident that the SP will fall after the vote it might make sense to rethink that strategy. If the "squeeze" consists of the SP gradually easing up by $5 or $10 per share then "just riding it all out" probably makes sense.

OTOH if you see a rapid increase after the voting date is announced of (pick a number) $30-$150 , or more "just riding it all out" because " I'm a long-term investor" is probably a very foolish decision. Why not sell your shares near the peak and repurchase them when it dips or at least buy some puts?!

(A) I'm probably going to be on vacation. It's not worth the stress to try to do any trading if it's happening while I'm on vacation. If I'm at home and working, I might do something.
(B) You can lose a lot in transaction costs (both commissions and more importantly spreads) by selling and repurchasing even as little as half a million dollars worth of shares.
(C) It's not 100% certain that it'll drop again afterwards -- a squeeze *could* lead into a general market reevaluation of the company or scare off the short-sellers into not coming back. I think it probably won't (they seem awfuly persistent), but it could.

If I'm at home at the time and it really looks like a short-term "squeeze" spike with a high likelihood of dropping again in the near term, I probably will do something with options to try to take advantage of it. I'm definitely not bothering if I'm on vacation, though.


If it skyrockets up to $1500 or something, I'll have to trade, of course.

 

[BobSk]

So in Q2 four of the five largest institutional shareholders all increased their TSLA position, for a rather significant total of 6.4M shares. The Price T. Rowe did not report yet (the deadline is 45 calendar days after the end of the quarter)

Like other top shareholders, T. Rowe Price understands Tesla. They expect many fold gain on this investment. Probably added shares in Q2.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

So in Q2 four of the five largest institutional shareholders all increased their TSLA position, for a rather significant total of 6.4M shares. The Price T. Rowe did not report yet (the deadline is 45 calendar days after the end of the quarter)

I wonder if those were the guys who bought the secondary offering - that could be where their shares came from.

Mike