Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ludicrousspeed]

What was the short interest in 2013? I can't remember, but almost 30M seems like a ton, especially since daily volume is around 4M.

Not sure the exact amount but I'm 100% sure it was substantially higher in terms of % of shares sold short. Right now, about 23% of shares are sold short but I'm fairly positive that % was close to 40 in early 2013. In the late 2012 "tsunami of hurt" interview, Elon noted that the short interest was as high as it could possibly go, and based on some rough research I think it was around 40%. Keep in mind that the actual amount of shares sold short (~30M today) may be near or higher than 2013 short share count, but the total float is also much larger after Tesla issued additional equality offerings since (most recently in Aug at $242.)

 

[v12 to 12v]

What was the short interest in 2013? I can't remember, but almost 30M seems like a ton, especially since daily volume is around 4M.

Between 32 million and 33 million shares short at its peak, I believe.

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Volume was much lower then.

 

[electracity]

Today I learned that I have single handedly added $20 billion in market cap for TSLA. Elon should donate his fortune to me.

Thank you.
Please send advanced notice next time you plan to move the stock price.

I enjoyed your analysis of Elon's personal investment. But in a quick read I didn't see that you took into account his SCTY purchases.

 

[lango]

That would be strongly beyond my expectations. A while back I put together a construct that would touch at or close $400 in Q3 on a squeeze before falling back to support in the low $300s to exit the year. Nothing in the short term picture has changed to alter that view and in fact, my concern that the bulk of shorts may escape to cover and defuse the short-squeeze set-up if the stock went too close to $180 has been assuaged with the recent short interest update showing they actually doubled down on stupid (well not quite doubled but short interest actually increased sequentially, which is great news).

$400 I think will be hard to break through, too. If they reach $400 then they will have the same market cap as VW, GM, BMW etc with 1/20 of production. I think to break $400 Tesla Energy will need to be significant so they are perceived as more than an auto maker. I am confident this will happen but I think it will take atleast 4-5 years.

 

[Julian Cox]

Just ran a quick muppet auto-calibration and got the following diagnostic report.

Half the bleeding institutions will have known well in advance that Jonas planned to put the boot in this morning, which is when they sold the stock down. There's a fair chance that MS funded Musk's options convert and today was just a buy on the news. It does not matter that Jonas's 'research' is wrong. I mean really. low oil price effects coal and gas-fired turbines and hydro electricity does it? I don't believe that Jonas believes a word of it. Jonas's note is just a bunch of straw men to be burned at a later date whenever it suits them and in that respect, it's brilliant.

 

[dreamingof3]

IIRC his last price target I saw was $400. It was pages and days ago.

I would be VERY happy with $300 (ATH)

I was working at a brokerage firm in 2005 and recall talking to a gentleman with GOOG leaps. He got rich off of those. I wonder if TSLA leaps will offer the same fate.

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Between 32 million and 33 million shares short at its peak, I believe.

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Volume was much lower then.

It was over 40 million at one point. That is a fact-I just need to find the link

 

[nienco2]

Just ran a quick muppet auto-calibration and got the following diagnostic report.

Half the bleeding institutions will have known well in advance that Jonas planned to put the boot in this morning, which is when they sold the stock down. There's a fair chance that MS funded Musk's options convert and today was just a buy on the news. It does not matter that Jonas's 'research' is wrong. I mean really. low oil price effects coal and gas-fired turbines and hydro electricity does it? I don't believe that Jonas believes a word of it. Jonas's note is just a bunch of straw men to be burned at a later date whenever it suits them and in that respect, it's brilliant.

Still would love to know where you found info regarding model X reservations "growing". I think that is a great data point but want to confirm it before buying more. TIA

 

[dreamingof3]

Still would love to know where you found info regarding model X reservations "growing". I think that is a great data point but want to confirm it before buying more. TIA

Not sure how they would be growing if they have zero at the sales centers to show customers. Strange approach IMO

 

[AudubonB]

Regarding the elsewhere-noticed report that Tesla has applied for a Michigan dealership & service license:

The Detroit News article Tesla applies for dealership license in Michigan states

As of Sunday night, it was unclear who within Tesla — CEO Elon Musk, Chief Financial Officer Deepak Ahuja or another executive — submitted the applications."

Well, one thing is clear: it isn't Deepak "Who's He?" Ahuja!!!!

The article also avers that this application is less about gaining the license now as it is about probing Lansing's resolve to apply or ignore Michigan's statutes:

Tesla on Monday confirmed the applications, saying they are intended to confirm that the 2014 law bars its direct sales methodology.“Submission of the application is intended to seek the Secretary of State’s confirmation of this prohibition,” said a Tesla spokesperson in an email to The News. “Once confirmed, Tesla will review any options available to overturn this anti-consumer law.”

 

[Julian Cox]

Still would love to know where you found info regarding model X reservations "growing". I think that is a great data point but want to confirm it before buying more. TIA

Q3 shareholder letter is a fair start. Anecdotally the MX reservation tally was at 24K before the D launch, dropped to about 20K when AWD S absorbed 4K worth of MX interest and since climbed into the 30K range with estimates as high as 33K after the 29th Sept. MX founder launch.

If someone has tighter due diligence than this and they probably do, I would defer to them. I'm not particularly concerned about MX other than to note that shareholder's concerns / shorter's dreams about Model X are overblown if not completely unfounded.

 

[dreamingof3]

Anyone here have Jan 2018 Call leaps at 100 strike? Trading at 103 this seems like it could be highly profitable.

 

[nienco2]

Q3 shareholder letter is a fair start. Anecdotally the MX reservation tally was at 24K before the D launch, dropped to about 20K when AWD S absorbed 4K worth of MX interest and since climbed into the 30K range with estimates as high as 33K after the 29th Sept. MX founder launch.

If someone has tighter due diligence than this and they probably do, I would defer to them. I'm not particularly concerned about MX other than to note that shareholder's concerns / shorter's dreams about Model X are overblown if not completely unfounded.

OK thanks anyway. I can wait til ER and see where the deposits stand for a precise number.

 

[lango]

Model X reservations/orders is clearly a function of production and wait time to a large degree. So if production was going faster more orders would be inbound.

 

[stealthology]

Another Adam Jonas theory: maybe he pretty much knew Tesla would go higher even after his downgrade (support level, some of his ridiculous points, etc), so he made the report negative so that hopefully more clueless retail shorts will add on the way up, thus maximizing the gain for Tesla in 2016. I know nothing.

..Tesla energy also began deliveries and first installation with a larger than expected amount of Powerpak installations...

Are you sure the above is the case? Long, just curious.

For short term price movement, I think it'll be VERY important to see on CC how Elon answers the accusation of Model 3 delay until late 2018. I think there's ZERO chance of Elon saying the Model 3 is delayed at this point. Whether it really is delayed is impossible to know.

Hopefully it's not a question of 'do we want to post FCF+' or 'do we wanna come out with Model 3 on time'. I'm super long, playing devil's advocate, and know nothing.

 

[Svetlin]

Anyone here have Jan 2018 Call leaps at 100 strike? Trading at 103 this seems like it could be highly profitable.

I converted some shares to 2018 $100 leaps for exactly $100 last week. Plan is to convert them pack to at least 20% more shares and some extra cash sometime in the next year and a half...

Edit: but still will probably lose some on the bid/ask spread when it gets even deeper in the money, at say a $350 stock price.

 

[lango]

Hopefully it's not a question of 'do we want to post FCF+' or 'do we wanna come out with Model 3 on time'. I'm super long, playing devil's advocate, and know nothing.

Anyone have an idea about the CAPEX requirements for Model 3 at this point in time? I know it goes up a lot because of robots and manufacturing, but that is later. So how would CAPEX influence the delay of Model 3?

 

[Julian Cox]

I should probably add on the subject of the Model X there is a vortex issue that IMO stems from the fact that a lot of people really, really want the car badly. Many of these (very understandably) seriously frustrated customers are also vocal shareholders that while seriously frustrated are busily kicking the stock in the sentiment which then hits them back again in the net worth which then jeopardizes the ability to confirm the purchase of a $132,000+ car that they really really want.

Of all of these things, wanting the car really really badly is not going away - what else is the prospective Model X customer going to be happy with? A Jeep or a Bentayga? I don't think so. Meanwhile TSLA is gearing up for an insane break-out regardless. Whatever the precise MX reservation tally at present shareholders should be perfectly confident that Tesla is maxed out on Model X production for at least six months and the worst that will actually happen to the frustrated customer/shareholder is that they will have lost their place in the line and end up with a Model X with slightly improved trunk alignment or the option of a folding seat or something of the sort.

Vortex in a teacup I say. I'm actually really excited about TSLA for the first time in a long time.

 

[durkie]

Anyone here have Jan 2018 Call leaps at 100 strike? Trading at 103 this seems like it could be highly profitable.

This might be a little off-topic for here, but can you explain your line of thought here for wanting these calls? If you buy one contract at $100 strike for $103, you're paying $10,300 for the right to buy $10,000 (100 shares * $100 strike) worth of shares. It seems like a bad deal compared to just buying the shares outright since:

* The option will expire and the shares won't
* The option is more expensive than the shares, so you have leverage < 1
* The option consists almost entirely of intrinsic value, so it seems like it would appreciate at basically the same rate as the underlying but with way more risk.

 

[austinEV]

Concerning the Q4 ER, it is always more boring than we speculate. I really, really doubt that they have fireworks to announce. I doubt they have great financials in Q4, despite high deliveries (they had high spend too). They will be coy about model X deliveries. I suspect they are producing ~200 per week and delivering ~20/week due to some last minute part shortage or alignment thing that is a bottleneck. They probably don't want to tell that story, so they will say things like "production is on xxx pace" and "we are really focusing on quality. we would prefer to work out the small issues than send out cars that will need rework" and such. They will kinda know if FCF is Q1 or Q2 but will not commit. They will offer an annual guidance that is, I hope, on the bottom end of expectations so they can handily beat it later. M3 will just be "on schedule". Tesla energy shipments might be the good news they cannot hide.

Usually we investors are a little lonesome because Elon doesn't care about the stock price. But this year, like 2013 it is part of his job to care. They want to do a capital raise, I think, midyear so burning shorts is suddenly in the actual goal for the year for TM management. They don't really do themselves any favors by pulling in good news to this ER. Better to be coy and dampen enthusiasm to have a breakthrough Q1 and/or Q2.

That being said, even a workaday good-enough Q4 ER at this point might spark a relief rally.

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This might be a little off-topic for here, but can you explain your line of thought here for wanting these calls? If you buy one contract at $100 strike for $103, you're paying $10,300 for the right to buy $10,000 (100 shares * $100 strike) worth of shares. It seems like a bad deal compared to just buying the shares outright since:

* The option will expire and the shares won't
* The option is more expensive than the shares, so you have leverage < 1
* The option consists almost entirely of intrinsic value, so it seems like it would appreciate at basically the same rate as the underlying but with way more risk.

Leverage is roughly 2x. That is the advantage.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Seems like TSLA doesn't want to break and close above $200 today. Intra-day high of $199.52 so far and we're into the last hour of trading now.