FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Would you say Guidance (outlook) provided by Tesla is most important driver on ER?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Would you say Guidance (outlook) provided by Tesla is most important driver on ER?
Also there was no downgrade by Morgan Stanley. They maintained an overweight rating. It's the price target that became less elevated. CNBC should have producers who better understand stock market terminology so as not to mislead investors. Of course they should also be cognizant of current price action before posting incorrect statements about it.
^^^^^^^^ YES! particularly Q1, although that is a short term focus it would indicate whether X issues are being resolved quickly, or not
That's a great point that most people overlooked, as the PT update drew a lot of attention.
As for news reports, I think it is foolish for news outlets to report price action intra-day because it is misleading when and if the stock rebounds by closing, unless they update again after closing (the only time price action news is relevant).
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I think they were simply late to air the story whispered to them by their frat bros. They were supposed to help push the price down with the celebrated Cramer maneuver, and they blew it.
Really, CNBC, you can't even BE ON TIME when you're supposed to manipulate the market for your squash-playing buddies?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Today I learned that I have single handedly added $20 billion in market cap for TSLA. Elon should donate his fortune to me.
everman
Member
You need to let this go man. Not only is your return to jump on something simply to continue a personal beef, but you select a topic that is actually suspected to have happened by many on this forum. TMC threads are commonly shopped by analysts, bulls and bears alike. Our discussion is some of the most lively and informed on the internet when it comes to Tesla. It is completely believable that Adam Jonas first came across the idea on TMC. I am very glad you're back on this forum, but please let this "certain individual said something I don't like" quit being the only reason you post anymore.
As a side note, Adam has also credited his 8-year old with an idea that he has then published.
Last edited:
jesselivenomore
Member
Certainly, guidance is the primary driver for almost any stock, but especially with Tesla since we already know current quarter's deliveries(roughly).
The bar has been set pretty low by recent price action. I believe a reaffirming of the 1600-1800/week production for 2016 should be enough for some lift. Also we just heard Musk say Model X production should equal Model S by Q2. Just saying those same words on the CC to a wider audience should be positive as well.
One area of uncertainty I am interested in is automotive margins for Q4. There was a statement that Tesla was disappointed by their margins but there was no clarification on that. Are they disappointed in their prior(Q3) margins of 23.7% since they have a stated eventual target of 30%, or disappointed in current(Q4) margins? If it is the former then no big deal. If it is the latter then how bad were Q4 margins? If they are bad enough then their 17k Q4 deliveries would be interpreted as dumping inventory to make guidance, which would be bad.
Welcome back Jesse. We need more people like you to play TSLA from trader perspective in short term thread. Long term thread would be better place for cheerlead, perma-bull and buy&hold guys. I value your opinion and especially your calls to exit your position around 220. I regret I didn't pay serious attention at that time. IMO, ER will play very short term impact to SP. Many negatives has been priced in. By saying that, I can't exclude the possibility dipping into sub-180 next week very briefly.
- - - Updated - - -
another hype note from "stupid" Chip?
- - - Updated - - -
another hype note from "stupid" Chip?
Hard to say. There are quite a few drivers in prospect and while guidance will undoubtedly be extremely good, the impact of guidance over substance may be somewhat limited unless that guidance is numeric and unambiguous.
One thing that can help with that would be a strong debut for the new CFO.
There is quite a good chance that Q4 will be shock positive by the numbers. Apparently there has been some uncharacteristic restraint from Tesla on Super Charger installations. This along with all the Model S activity (including pull-ins and inventory sales) and it seems some Tesla Energy pull-in from Q1 as well - it seems to me like they have made a conscious effort to nail some quarterly cash flow and EPS numbers like they care about making a positive impression on the stock market. This is not always the case, sometimes they seem to care less about the numbers and more about some aspect of operations and just let a bad-news quarter slide. I don't think Q4 (or any of Q1-Q3 2016) is one of those. They may be somewhat out of excuses but I think that coincides nicely with not needing any.
Q1-Q3 is essentially alleviated of a $400-$500 million quarterly Model X development cost burden with ramping X and Tesla Energy sales complimenting Model S sales - and the $1.6 billion GF commitment from Panasonic that got drowned out by a negative news cycle does not hurt much either. Shorts tend to think in straight lines. This is a 180 degree about turn. This is the most profound recipe for a short squeeze since, well the last TSLA short squeeze throughout 2013. Anyone that imagines this is going down any differently IMO is going to lose their flippin' shirt.
I would still maintain that the big money in 2016 is to be long through Q3. Up until then we will have Gen II (X and S) plus TE good news by the numbers and Model 3 good news by the narrative. I think there is a relatively strong chance of getting burned after the M3 reveal on the news alone. By Q3 however we will have Model 3 good news by the numbers too in terms of reservation tally. No such thing as a secret reservation account.
I would think of 2016 as a stock roadshow commencing with ER and culminating in a raise for M3 production in Q3, probably at the crest of a rolling squeeze.
stealthology
Member
Actually Musk has said that he expects Energy products to eventually be approximately 2x that of their auto business.
Forgive me if English is not your first language. For the avoidance of doubt, what you are crediting yourself with is the exact opposite of what I have stated.
Correlation is one thing.
Causation is another.
I assume when referring to me you can produce no evidence to refute the former and no evidence of any claim on my part to the latter. Why? Because in the absence of language comprehension issues, no such evidence exists.
In your example you are claiming the latter while pointing to no evidence of the former. Big difference.
So much for the correlation. As for the rest, I try to pick my language with sufficient precision to avoid this kind of nonsense.
I said and I quote "I documented the shared mobility thing online before Jonas, not impossible that this is where he got the idea from."
I said this precisely because my public comments piecing together Tesla's strategy components and noting that they converge on autonomous fleet are to my knowledge the first ever in a public medium and significantly pre-date Jonas's first note and ER question on the topic.
If you or anyone else is arguing that I am wrong and that it is in fact impossible for Adam Jonas to research the Internet on the topic of Tesla and Autonomous driving then I despair of such nonsense. Did I lay claim that this is exactly what he did and that there was no way he could possibly have figured it out without my singular brilliance? NO!
I am surprised that this along with a great many things I write is not more abundantly obvious to anyone, and that guy is actually paid to figure this stuff out and tell us what he's figured out, and he's supposed to be right, and most of the time he's making stuff up and getting it wrong like a rank amateur. Which is weird.
Last edited:
dreamingof3
Member
Tesla tripled on that squeeze from 50 to 150. Are you saying we could triple to $570?
ludicrousspeed
Member
Much harder to grow the larger you are. Also, short interest is much lower than in 2013. I don't think anybody is realistically expecting above $500 this year.
Great, and in re discussion above about analysts such as Jonas moving the stock, is it your opinion that the decision makers behind institutional trading pay any attention at all to the varied opinions of analysts? I'm highly skeptical, but not in the industry. I've always wondered how they earn their salaries
IIRC his last price target I saw was $400. It was pages and days ago.
I would be VERY happy with $300 (ATH)
Shorts have to be a bit freaked out from today's action with TSLA up considerably with the broader markets down. I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to bring TSLA lower in slow afternoon trading, but it likely won't be very effective because you likely have some of the smarter shorts looking for opportunities to abandon ship now. Musk's payment of options taxes with cash certainly helped with the change of momentum.
That would be strongly beyond my expectations. A while back I put together a construct that would touch at or close $400 in Q3 on a squeeze before falling back to support in the low $300s to exit the year. Nothing in the short term picture has changed to alter that view and in fact, my concern that the bulk of shorts may escape to cover and defuse the short-squeeze set-up if the stock went too close to $180 has been assuaged with the recent short interest update showing they actually doubled down on stupid (well not quite doubled but short interest actually increased sequentially, which is great news).
everman
Member
What was the short interest in 2013? I can't remember, but almost 30M seems like a ton, especially since daily volume is around 4M.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
