Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

Lovely slope, isn't it?

 

[esk8mw]

Cd is indeed important. Try driving into a 35 mph wind with a car that maxes out at 95 mph. It's aerodynamic drag, not the rolling resistance, that limits the Bolt at such times. You might have difficulty maintaining normal highway speed in such an event. Since aerodynamic drag doubles with every 41% increase in speed, the limitations can be quite significant when driving into a strong wind or trying to go fast.

Slightly off topic, but I also wonder how the Bolt will perform in bad weather? Just about every review I read panned the tires as providing the same amount of grip as a billiard ball because there was so much focus on lowering rolling resistance. Plus no AWD. I have no idea how FWD performs when there's no engine up front.

Anyway, back to watching the SP make this weird green color on my screen.

 

[30seconds]

initial tests on the new P100D.

Tesla P100D Ludicrous Model S Performance Testing

maximum plaid

 

[FredTMC]

Except that Chanos said he is short both TSLA and SCTY.

Eat it, Chanos. For the rest of the month time for you to feel pain. And then Q3 deliveries Oct 3. Eat it

 

[vgrinshpun]

Lovely slope, isn't it?

View attachment 194561

Well, somebody need to buy all those mm of recalled shares...
Let's see if this climb accelerates now as we are above $200...

 

[austinEV]

Guy's gotta do his job. Sits there all day clicking "Dislike". ;-)

Enough dislike clicks and TSLA will collapse!

So some CFO at an oil pipeline services company tried to spear phish tesla's cfo with a fake yahoo account and an interesting attempt at an em impersonation.

Tesla is suing oil industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

So does this guy not know about federal wire fraud or California's Anti-phishing act of 2005? Tesla is suing for damages related to investigation but I would be surprised if this doesn't get a criminal investigation and maybe the sec?

PS. Anyone have q3 internal delivery projections? Asking for a friend.

I wonder how many emails he got at that Yahoo email now? "Hey this is Jason. OMG So blowing away every metric!"


So if one was of the opinion that the merger was 100%, there is literally no reason not to convert all TSLA holdings to SCTY right? Thinking this is going to be one of those forehead-slapping missed opportunities.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, somebody need to buy all those mm of recalled shares...
Let's see if this climb accelerates now as we are above $200...

Any more tweets/news from that guy you follow? (He's commenting on recall)

 

[FredTMC]

Still very low volume, but picking up a bit, and we are about to break through $200. This just does not feel "normal", something is cooking. I am wondering if both volume and the climb will accelerate if TSLA breaks through $200.

We've got macro tailwinds today and the "recall effect". Double positive...

My theory on low volume is that the shorts can't short

 

[eloder]

If the merger deal fails, it'll hurt Tesla more than if it succeed short term (regardless of whether the merger is good or not), and Solar City potentially disastrously so if the merge fails.

No merger deal means much more short-term gains being guaranteed.

 

[esk8mw]

Enough dislike clicks and TSLA will collapse!



I wonder how many emails he got at that Yahoo email now? "Hey this is Jason. OMG So blowing away every metric!"


So if one was of the opinion that the merger was 100%, there is literally no reason not to convert all TSLA holdings to SCTY right? Thinking this is going to be one of those forehead-slapping missed opportunities.

Pretty much, yea. Converting TSLA to SCTY is a high risk/reward scenario as it would allow you to effectively buy TSLA for about $150-$160. However, if the merger fails I predict SCTY will drop to $5-10, at least in the short term. For me, I converted about 15% of my TSLA into SCTY to try and make a play without betting the farm.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Any more tweets/news from that guy you follow? (He's commenting on recall)

Unfortunately, no. Pinged him couple of times, trying to get number for the recalled shares yesterday (Tuesday was "almost 3mm"), and, in a separate tweet, what was cumulative since last Friday, but did not get a response...

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

All this talk about arbitrage makes me wonder if this past week has been all about TSLA longs trying to arbitrage the merger? Could we short-termers been the cause of the recent headache? But then SCTY shares should've risen during this trade right? What's the short interest on SCTY currently?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Doesn't anyone find it strange that shorts are spreading FUD and trying to stop the merger? But their argument is that "the merger will destroy and bankrupt the companies". Ok... but if you are SHORT TSLA and SCTY, why in the world would you try to stop the merger and scare investors into voting against it? I would rather keep it to myself and hope the merger goes through so I can see the bankruptcy and cash in on my short position.

Long and short of it... Jim Chanos isn't trying to be benevolent by doing a public service announcement. He's trying to kill the merger because it will actually be good for Tesla and hence disastrous for Chanos' short position.

I think Chanos is trying to "rally" the troops. He knows that multiple technical indicators earlier this week suggested that the down trend was going to end. Add in the record date for the merger.

I suspect he's trying to convince the shorts to stay in, and try to use his bully pulpit to prevent new longs from joining.

Like everyone, except Musk et al. No one knows what a SCTY/TSLA merger will bring. I personally suspect there are pending opportunities that folks don't know about that will happen with the merger.

 

[dirtyofries]

Thought this was interesting RE: The Bolt. GM apparently isn't too keen on it yet. no right hand drive model for now.

Right-hand drive Chevy Bolt too expensive and risky for GM

 

[austinEV]

All this talk about arbitrage makes me wonder if this past week has been all about TSLA longs trying to arbitrage the merger? Could we short-termers been the cause of the recent headache? But then SCTY shares should've risen during this trade right? What's the short interest on SCTY currently?

Yeah if ppl were selling Tsla and buying Scty the arbitrage would close which isn't happening. That SHOULD happen eventually.

 

[MitchJi]

So if one was of the opinion that the merger was 100%, there is literally no reason not to convert all TSLA holdings to SCTY right? Thinking this is going to be one of those forehead-slapping missed opportunities.

Correct.

Pretty much, yea. Converting TSLA to SCTY is a high risk/reward scenario as it would allow you to effectively buy TSLA for about $150-$160. However, if the merger fails I predict SCTY will drop to $5-10, at least in the short term. For me, I converted about 15% of my TSLA into SCTY to try and make a play without betting the farm.

You could buy SCTY puts, to protect you if the merger doesn't go through.

 

[Matias]

1. Adding interior volume at the expense of aerodynamics is a gimmick which is incorporated at the expense of the efficienc y. Adding interior volume on top of somebody's head does not add practicality - one still can't fit three adults across the rear seat in the Bolt, but Anthon Whalman can make meaningless claim that interior volume of sub-compact Bolt is the same as large Model S. Meanwhile the efficiency is sacrificed. Looks like all the steam was spent into the whistle...

You can't do this on Model 3. Disclaimer; I would rather buy Model 3. My point is just that there is some use of that extra volume and that it can increase practicality.

 

[joseph7h]

Lovely slope, isn't it?

View attachment 194561

Broken down completely as of speaking!

 

[Jayjs20]

What goes up must come down. It's just the matter of how much it'll go down and when it'll go up again.

 

[NicoV]

What goes up must come down. It's just the matter of how much it'll go down and when it'll go up again.

Second wave has started