Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

Apparently, fidelity doesn't want their shares available for shorting...

I have no problem with that

Fidelity funds own quite a bit of TSLA and some SCTY too. The SP over the next month could affect both the SCTY vote and the capital raise. In one month, Fidelity could make about 1 1/4 % on lending out their shares for a month, but lending out their shares right now could possibly make a 10% difference with the stock price. Lending out more of their shares will greatly reduce the interest rate paid on shares that may still be out. I don't know what percentage of Fidelity's shares are in the wild at the moment, but it may make more sense in profits for receiving 15% interest on your existing shares that are lent out rather than increasing your available shares and receiving 5% on all lent TSLA shares. There's much to be said about creating a shortage.

 

[Papafox]

If theory and practise contradict each other, which you choose? Reality is, that current generation Teslas are not maintenance free and every owner knows it.

Matias, people never post messages just to say, "hey, I've gone another year without needing any maintenance." My 2015 Model S has been incredibly maintenance free. Other than getting a noise fixed soon after the car was delivered, I've had no need for maintenance other than tire rotations. I even drove the car to all 50 states last summer on a mega-roadtrip with my dog (had a little help from an airplane to get the Tesla to Hawaii, though). As FredTMC says, this is a much simpler car than an ICE, there is much less to go wrong.

 

[TMSE]

If theory and practise contradict each other, which you choose? Reality is, that current generation Teslas are not maintenance free and every owner knows it.

They may not be totally maintenance free, but the issues are rapidly reducing. Both initial and ongoing maintenance issues of newer MS are much lower than those from 2012/2013. Newer MX have much fewer issues than those made early this year.

There might be disagreement about the magnitude of maintenance issues, but do you agree that the issues are rapidly reducing with newer production?

 

[Thumper]

Daimler CEO talks Tesla but admits Mercedes is tracking behind [Video]

Looks like Mercedes might be committing to BEV. If so, they could actually survive the coming transformation. They are behind but I'm sure they will make a decent BEV if they put full effort into it. The transition from ICE will be tricky to navigate.

 

[geneclean55]

212 the current battleground?

 

[eloder]

If theory and practise contradict each other, which you choose? Reality is, that current generation Teslas are not maintenance free and every owner knows it.

1) The components that require maintenance in a Tesla are not related to the electric vehicle aspect of it. Econo-EVs truly are maintenance free. Even my stealership charges me $20/year for my Leaf's annual maintenance because they literally have nothing more to do than a visual check and computer diagnostics. Just add on tire maintenance every few years and I'm golden.

2) Teslas require significantly less maintenance than most comparably-priced ICEs. This is an objective fact.

3) Teslas are more reliable than most comparably-priced ICEs. This is an objective fact.

4) Teslas, and EV maintenance in general, does not increase with time. ICEs become prohibitively expensive to maintain. Teslas remain relatively constant, especially within the 8 year unlimited mile warranty.

So yes, putting maintenance/reliability of a Tesla and/or EVs as a negative compared to ICE comparably-priced competitors demonstrates profound ignorance of the technology and of current reality, as you put it. You're comparing $70k+ sports supercar reliability to Honda Civic reliability to arrive at the conclusions you do. Parring some huge future failures at Tesla quality control, Model 3's will remain favorably reliable/maintenance-free compared to competing ICEs of similar price.

 

[Jayjs20]

212 the current battleground?

212 +/- 1 it seems, for now anyways. I have my doubts it'll stay there. I'm guessing one side will eventually give up and it'll either fall to 210.x again or jump back to 213+

 

[austinEV]

Most of my trips to the service center:

Me: "waaah, my 100k car has a wonky trim piece."
Tesla service: "Sigh. Yes sir, we will get right on it."

 

[FredTMC]

212 +/- 1 it seems, for now anyways. I have my doubts it'll stay there. I'm guessing one side will eventually give up and it'll either fall to 210.x again or jump back to 213+

Yeah. Zero help from the retail auto analysts today. And weak macros... but looks as if TSLA could try again to bust thru 200 and 50 DMA at $215

Once TSLA finally holds above $215 at the close, there should be a cascade of shorts running to cover.

 

[Jayjs20]

The way the SP movement pattern is looking the last couple of hours, it doesn't look like the usual short movement with its sharp downs and horizontal movement. Given that Fidelity was at 0 shares to short this morning and IB seems to be hording, could they be out of ammo?

 

[MartinAustin]

Yeah TSLA is doing a good job of fighting back since the lows this morning. I wonder if it'll be back in the green by the end of the day.

 

[Matias]

They may not be totally maintenance free, but the issues are rapidly reducing. Both initial and ongoing maintenance issues of newer MS are much lower than those from 2012/2013. Newer MX have much fewer issues than those made early this year.

There might be disagreement about the magnitude of maintenance issues, but do you agree that the issues are rapidly reducing with newer production?

I agree, that newer cars have less issues than older.

 

[FredTMC]

Yeah TSLA is doing a good job of fighting back since the lows this morning. I wonder if it'll be back in the green by the end of the day.

Yes... you have my word on that.

Morgan Stanley just needed to knock it down more this morning so that important clients could get in cheaper... (Chinese wall? Yeah riiiiight)

I'd be v surprised if TSLA doesn't finish green today. And I want a retest of $215 today. Ideally close above $215.

 

[RobStark]

This "maintenance free car" is used here a lot. At least it is not a fact with current Model S and X, which in many cases seem to need frequent visits to Service centers.

Except for the ToL Performance models, it will take a few iterations to get there.

The stress put on the powertrain by regular sub 3 second 0-60 launches will mean there will be some trips to the service center. Less so than an equivalent Porsche or Aston Martin though.

 

[bonaire]

Fidelity funds own quite a bit of TSLA and some SCTY too. The SP over the next month could affect both the SCTY vote and the capital raise. In one month, Fidelity could make about 1 1/4 % on lending out their shares for a month, but lending out their shares right now could possibly make a 10% difference with the stock price. Lending out more of their shares will greatly reduce the interest rate paid on shares that may still be out. I don't know what percentage of Fidelity's shares are in the wild at the moment, but it may make more sense in profits for receiving 15% interest on your existing shares that are lent out rather than increasing your available shares and receiving 5% on all lent TSLA shares. There's much to be said about creating a shortage.

What I might consider acceptable support is the top holders selling some shares now to look at using that funding to buy into the cap raise to support their larger holdings. That could mean companies like TROWE to sell a million or so shares in Q3 to then buy a couple million in Q4. They have what, 10 million so they can LTCG some of their older stuff and post to customers that profit and then use the cash for further purchasing. They just can't buy forever. They need to free up cash for supporting the next round. I wouldn't be surprised if both FMR and TROWE were down on share holdings at end of Q3 to prepare for it.

 

[Jayjs20]

And there it goes off a cliff. I'm guessing its due to an increasing peak not being met.

I swear, today's a day trader's dream.

 

[phigment]

Insideevs just finished their quarterly deliveries chart. The North American sales now show that Tesla holds 1st and 3rd place for YTD deliveries.

 

[bonaire]

And there it goes off a cliff. I'm guessing its due to an increasing peak not being met.
I swear, today's a day trader's dream.

USD swinging stronger today, any US exporter will face some headwind.

 

[GBleck]

Wonder when or if the Canadian carbon tax / cap and trade announcement will start hitting the price. Doesn't hurt.

 

[Papafox]

The way the SP movement pattern is looking the last couple of hours, it doesn't look like the usual short movement with its sharp downs and horizontal movement. Given that Fidelity was at 0 shares to short this morning and IB seems to be hording, could they be out of ammo?

Jay, the horizontal movements are when shorts are playing defense, such as yesterday. When they mount an offensive, you see deep dips with quick recoveries or near recoveries. The pattern you see above is classic short-selling. If you look at the slope, shorts are losing the battle today. Longs have little fear at this point and they're not joining in the selling. Meanwhile, for every share sold short, there's a long who is a willing buyer. We could indeed track into the green today if volume doesn't fade too much. Once volume fades, the manipulators have an advantage. The good news is that if TSLA bursts into the green in a formidable fashion, volume could pick up.