Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Jayjs20]

ER is 4 weeks away

 

[FredTMC]

So... 4$ above Friday close with deliveries beating all analyst predictions.

Yeah.... Pretty crazy.

 

[Papafox]

Thought I would help you a bit:
Bought at $208.12

Will sell those shares tomorrow or Friday
If we can't break $217

I'm just glad we didn't have a "shave your head" contest as to who could buy shares cheapest today.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Well under 2 million for volume again. I probably don't need to tell this crowd, but don't trust the SP movements when volume is this low.

Also, 515k shares just became available for shorting at IB. It was around 230k for most of the day. Interesting to see this steady, large increase. The SP definitely doesn't show covered, so this is simply more shares being made available to short. I can't imagine why anyone would want to be short heading into this ER.

Oh you didn't hear? This is the ER that will send TSLA down to the "right" valuation. That's what the shorts told me. They thought it was the last ER, and the one before that, and the one before that...So it's this one for sure!

 

[eloder]

Interesting. I'm really surprised that the cable button worked with no power on the system.

Yeah.... Pretty crazy.

It's not terribly unexpected though.

Very poor negative delivery results didn't hit the stock price much, so it makes sense that very strong delivery results wouldn't drive it up much.

The market is looking for positive cashflow.

 

[MikeC]

I would enjoy having a short conversation with Elon to probe the context of his statement assuming he made it.

IIRC, he was against ads that use flash and gimmicks to persuade people to buy something that they wouldn't otherwise want. I don't think he has an issue with using advertising to draw attention to the merits of a product that consumers might not be aware of but may find useful.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Anyone else notice the huge volume spiked beginning at 3:30? I think 30% of daily volume was from 3:30 - 4:00.

Fully expecting SolarCity or Tesla to report earnings this week or next week. This would cause all of the lawsuits to get thrown out. Elon appears certain they will be before October 28th.

 

[racer26]

Anyone else notice the huge volume spiked beginning at 3:30? I think 30% of daily volume was from 3:30 - 4:00.

I sure did. Volume spiked in the last half hour, commensurate with SP falling off a cliff.

The upshot? Arb gap closed significantly today, after opening wider the last couple days.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did SolarCity acquire Forward Labs? Electrek seems to think this is very similar to what will be revealed on October 28th. This article basically confirms Tesla is planning to release a lot more than Solar shingles or a roof made entirely of Solar Panels using readily available conventional Solar technology..

Tesla/SolarCity’s ‘Solar Roof’ is not a solar shingle but ‘very similar’ to Forward’s solar roofing, source says

 

[AlMc]

Did SolarCity acquire Forward Labs? Electrek seems to think this is very similar to what will be revealed on October 28th. Tesla/SolarCity’s ‘Solar Roof’ is not a solar shingle but ‘very similar’ to Forward’s solar roofing, source says

No idea. PM Fred and ask. (not Fred TMC)

 

[MitchJi]

Thanks. Sending 100 to TMC and 100 to the Sierra Club, in honor of cue ball Fred!

Since the numbers were below 25k don't you owe us a shave? I don't care what you do, but one of my mentors used to say:
"If you lose money you lose nothing, if you lose health you lose something, if you lose character you lose everything.

One definition of bad character is not doing what you say you are going to do. So IMO not doing what you said you'd do is a poor decision.

I think I'll try a little putting my money where my mouth is. I'm going to buy some TSLA as close to the afternoon low today as I can and sell tomorrow morning, if the SP is up, then rinse and repeat. I have an open mind about taking advantage of a known pattern.

Edit: I might not be at rock bottom, but I just bought TSLA at 208.80. Let's see what I can get for it tomorrow morning.

If it's not higher in the morning, waiting until later in the day might be wise.

 

[MitchJi]

Electrek seems to think this is very similar to what will be revealed on October 28th. This article basically confirms Tesla is planning to release a lot more than Solar shingles or a roof made entirely of Solar Panels using readily available conventional Solar technology..

I think it's a slam dunk based on Elon's description that it's at least a similar concept. He said "roof" several times. It's baffling to me how people could interpret that as shingles.

 

[MitchJi]

Part of the issue with the cap raise is that the amount of the raise, and the price are unknown. After it happens we'll probably see a bump in the SP.

You left out that we still don't have the Q3 ER numbers.

Mitch,
You are correct. While I feel we will see profit I am not sure the market sees it that way.
Without the release of the first EM internal email I think we would have seen at least a 10% SP spike and maybe a short squeeze.
unfortunately the release of it telegraphed his intentions to the market: Longs read it as 'I told you we could do it' Shorts read it as 'He gamed the system'.
I am OK with them doing this as if I were a CEO knowing I would be going to the market for a cap raise I would want my company's stock price as high as possible when I needed the cash infusion.

In other words you believe that the sizzle before the event is more important than the Grilled Tofu after the event ?

I believe it's the opposite:

I'm not sure that the email made a substantial difference, I think the merger and impending raise and not having the numbers yet are the important factors.

We'll see what happens after the roofing TE V2 announcement, the merger vote, and the ER-CC.

Just joking, sorry I couldn't resist.

 

[MitchJi]

Unbelievable (almost as bad as the VP debate, in which it became clear that none of the candidates understand the causes of terrorism):
Believed Dead, Tesla Motors Nemesis Returns With a Vengeance (TSLA)

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) needs to accept the fact that some rivals just won’t die and Fisker Automotive is a great example of that. Henrik Fisker, the brain behind Fisker Automotive is back in the EV business and he has several targets painted on Tesla’s back. In an interview with the Detroit Bureau, Henrik Fisker says his new EV firm (Fisker Inc.) “is really the revival of the original Fisker, though it will be a completely new company.” This article provides some insights into Fisker’s second attempt to compete with Elon Musk.
<Snip>

I'm sure that Elon will have trouble sleeping when he hears about this!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I suggest everyone take a look at SolarCity's patents that have been granted over the past few weeks. They likely paint a picture of what is likely to be revealed on October 28th.

Patents by Assignee Solarcity Corporation - Justia Patents Search

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Unbelievable (almost as bad as the VP debate, in which it became clear that none of the candidates understand the causes of terrorism):
Believed Dead, Tesla Motors Nemesis Returns With a Vengeance (TSLA)

I'm sure that Elon will have trouble sleeping when he hears about this!

from the non-stop laughing?

 

[dennis]

Unbelievable (almost as bad as the VP debate, in which it became clear that none of the candidates understand the causes of terrorism):
Believed Dead, Tesla Motors Nemesis Returns With a Vengeance (TSLA)

I'm sure Henrik will have a much more difficult time raising capital for this one, after setting a $1.4B cash bonfire with Fisker Automotive.

 

[racer26]

I suggest everyone take a look at SolarCity's patents that have been granted over the past few weeks. They likely paint a picture of what is likely to be revealed on October 28th.

Patents by Assignee Solarcity Corporation - Justia Patents Search

That is indeed a truckload of patents that have been granted in the last 3-5 weeks. Wow.

 

[Tenable]

Since the numbers were below 25k don't you owe us a shave? I don't care what you do, but one of my mentors used to say:
"If you lose money you lose nothing, if you lose health you lose something, if you lose character you lose everything.

One definition of bad character is not doing what you say you are going to do. So IMO not doing what you said you'd do is a poor decision.

I couldn't agree more. My father grew up very poor, three of his siblings died of starvation. He raised me with a foundational belief, that money comes and goes, but nothing is more important than your word. Shave your head or don't, however, when I posted my picture and pledged to shave mine. I assure you, I would have followed through. If you do not, it speaks volumes. My .02.

 

[FredLambert]

No idea. PM Fred and ask. (not Fred TMC)

They didn't as far as I know. They just reached out and referred to it as "very similar" to the "solar roof" they are working on. Sunpower did the same. Forward Labs was looking to raise money and they quickly shut down the Kickstarter. Sources went dark. But I assume they got their money. From whom? I don't know.