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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Well, all the smart shorts rushed for the exit in the first 30 minutes of the day. I have to wonder what these new entrants (currently trying to push below 200) are thinking? There's a positive ER 2 weeks out, sandwiched by major product announcements before and after. Have fun shorting into that!

They are convinced that Tesla is a Fraud.
 
Quick reminder for all skeptical investors and all shorts, this is a video from 2012 were Tesla was producing 80 cars a week and the week before 40 cars per week. You can see how proud Elon was of that achievement. Now we're at 2,000 cars per week. I don't think 10,000 cars per week in 2018 is too much of a stretch given what the company has been through.

Edit: sorry I was missing the link:
 
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Quick reminder for all skeptical investors and all shorts, this is a video from 2012 were Tesla was producing 80 cars a week and the week before 40 cars per week. You can see how proud Elon was of that achievement. Now we're at 2,000 cars per week. I don't think 10,000 cars per week in 2018 is too much of a stretch given what the company has been through.
Missing link? ;)
 
I used Oncor as an example because they had a plan to buy 5GW / 15GWh of stationary storage which independent study concluded would be benefitial at $350/kWh. The reason for this large project is that wind accounts for about 15% of Texas' installed generation capacity. This large percentage of renewables put significant strain on the grid, could lead to power interruptions, and results in wind generators at times switching of generation because grid is not able to absorb it.

I do not know how likely agreement with Oncor specifically is, but an offtake agreement is a plausible way to obtain cash Tesla needs to avoid the capital raise.

Likelihood is infinitesimal. "Oncor can only use batteries for functions that improve reliability or the performance of the grid, such as deploying them instead of static VAR compensators to control voltage, or using them to avoid outages. But other functions, such as smoothing out the intermittency of renewables or using batteries for demand management, are not allowed. Essentially, using batteries for any function that is traditionally the realm of Texas’ competitive power market is off-limits to the utility....it is doubtful that Oncor would be allowed to own and operate the batteries without some sort of regulatory or legislative change."

Whatever happened to Oncor's big energy storage plans?

The wind generation is along I-10, atop the mesas in west Texas. The load is along the I-35 corridor and eastwards in the population and commercial/industrial centers. The pragmatic solution is high voltage transmission backbones to wheel the power from generation to load--but that has its own set of regulatory hurdles. (Some argue the Brattle study was a stalking horse for a more traditional agenda.)

TE's success is dependent on whether the GF can achieve sufficient savings in $/kw or $/kwh to overcome the handicap of being a late entrant in crowded, highly competitive markets. Tesla initially had some difficulty in Belgium and other parts of western Europe because it did not fully understand the vagaries of those markets' electical systems. Entrenched suppliers to US utilities like GE, ABB, AES, Siemens (Westinghouse), etc. not only know personally the key decision-makers in their cutomers' organizations but also have a good grasp of the technical and regulatory environments of their customers. It gets down to how much better is the "better mouse-trap."?
 
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Members might be interesting in reading a recent post about the current Nobel Economics winners. It is worth a read since it explains why, among other reasons, the merger of Solar City and Tesla makes sense empirically. Also curious is that so many US laureates are immigrants.

Harvard, MIT professors win Nobel in economics for research on contract theory

"Arise ye sons of MIT." :D

Edit: Arguably, Finland does have the best education system for all until college, and perhaps then as well, I don't know. But how could they possibly aspire to greatness without more military spending?
 
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Tesla is about to increase its lead in semi-autonomous driving w/ ‘Tesla Vision’: computer vision based on NVIDIA’s parallel computing

Tesla could be about to significantly increase its lead with ‘Tesla Vision’. Electrekhas learned more details about the new program, which is an end-to-end computer vision system built with NVIDIA’s CUDA, a parallel computing platform by the graphics processing unit maker.

Sources close to the ‘Tesla Vision’ program told Electrek that it’s actually not a SoC, but an end-to-end computer vision framework built with NVIDIA’s CUDA, a parallel computing platform. The system will be able to take raw data from camera sensors and run its own image processing to control Tesla vehicles. It will be combined with deep neural net training and work in tandem with Tesla’s recently released radar processing technology.

Tesla put a small army of PhDs in computer vision and “hardcore” software engineers on the program, including one of Microsoft’s scientists who developed the Hololens and experts in simulating human perception.

We are told that the system is unlike anything in vehicles currently available on the market today and it will act as the basis on which Tesla will be able to develop gradually more advanced autonomous features – climbing the ladder of levels of automation.


This is great!
 
Seriously, what "Unexpected Product" can EM bring out? From P85D to Model Y to truck, or even P100D, we all anticipated those. And P100D story did to the stock price was something that we all don't want to look back.
Remember, it's "unexpected by some." It's not something unheard of. We at TMC are certainly the "some" who would not be surprised at almost anything. After doing more thinking over the weekend, here's my odds:

60% AP 2.0 hardware
35% Model Y
5% something else

You have to follow the breadcrumbs. These are always left behind for careful observers:

- It's 2 days after referral period ends and Tesla could use a demand lever to ensure Q4 guidance is met --> AP 2.0
- There was a rumored shutdown and cars have been appearing with housing for different cameras --> AP 2.0
- His concurrent tweets were about traffic safety and AP, so it was on his mind and he wants to set the stage --> AP 2.0
- Most are focused on the death incident and 8.0 improvements, not new hardware --> AP 2.0
- Things like 100D were already announced to be coming later in the coming months, not unexpected by any.
- Model Y is unexpected by most but I think a bigger event would be in order (as with other vehicle reveals like Truck, roadster 2.0 or Semi).
- I assume anything solar/storage, like Powerwall 2.0, would go in the 28th event.
- It's a product, so it can't be solely software.
- It's an unveiling, so there's something to look at here. Also, week advance notice. I think the P100D only got like a few hours notice and was a product "announcement."

Can't wait!
 
With the implicit protection of the US Nuclear Umbrella.

Otherwise they would be part of the Russian education system.

I could understand this leap of logic if bereft of knowledge about the origins of the term, "Molotov cocktail." Surely you remember the Soviet Union nearly lost its war against Finland in 1939-40 because the initial invasion of 1,000,000 men at the start was insufficient to match Finnish opposition.

To be fair the Finns did make a mistake by fortifying islands within artillery range of Leningrad, but I didn't know the Finns were included under the NATO alliance. They and the Swedes are considering a closer alliance but a lot of Finnish public opinion is opposed to it as they have learned not to provoke the Russian bear. Unfortunately, the Ukrainians did not learn this until too late.

There is an old Russian saying, "do not provoke a bear unless you are willing to kill it."

Nuclear weapons are a blunt instrument. As the children's movie about a computer war illustrates, "what a stupid game, Dr. Falcon (memory fails), where both sides lose if they play the game."

I grant Trump supporters a bone on this point.
 
With the implicit protection of the US Nuclear Umbrella.

Otherwise they would be part of the Russian education system.

Russia tried to invade Finland at second world war, luckily Stalin did execute many of their top officers before trying. Didn't go so well for Russians. Unluckily it's more likely that US will nuke Finland for trying to stop possible Russian advancement than Russian nuking near their own border. Not very many countries have survived full Russian assault, there was enough aspiration in that to last for few generations.
 
Tesla is about to increase its lead in semi-autonomous driving w/ ‘Tesla Vision’: computer vision based on NVIDIA’s parallel computing
It’s arguable, of course, but third-party tests have shown Tesla Autopilot outperforming other semi-autonomous or advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) from Mercedes, Hyundai and Cadillac by a wide margin, which would indicate Tesla is currently leading in the field.

Now we learn that Tesla could be about to significantly increase its lead with ‘Tesla Vision’. Electrek has learned more details about the new program, which is an end-to-end computer vision system built with NVIDIA’s CUDA, a parallel computing platform by the graphics processing unit maker.
 
Tesla is about to increase its lead in semi-autonomous driving w/ ‘Tesla Vision’: computer vision based on NVIDIA’s parallel computing

Tesla could be about to significantly increase its lead with ‘Tesla Vision’. Electrekhas learned more details about the new program, which is an end-to-end computer vision system built with NVIDIA’s CUDA, a parallel computing platform by the graphics processing unit maker.

Sources close to the ‘Tesla Vision’ program told Electrek that it’s actually not a SoC, but an end-to-end computer vision framework built with NVIDIA’s CUDA, a parallel computing platform. The system will be able to take raw data from camera sensors and run its own image processing to control Tesla vehicles. It will be combined with deep neural net training and work in tandem with Tesla’s recently released radar processing technology.

Tesla put a small army of PhDs in computer vision and “hardcore” software engineers on the program, including one of Microsoft’s scientists who developed the Hololens and experts in simulating human perception.

We are told that the system is unlike anything in vehicles currently available on the market today and it will act as the basis on which Tesla will be able to develop gradually more advanced autonomous features – climbing the ladder of levels of automation.


This is great!
we shall see what sleezK alphalfa haz 2 say
 
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