Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[BobSk]

What scandals have you seen where major analysts write an incorrect report to drive down the stock price, load up on shares and then later sell at a profit?

If the research is BS, what does your analysis say are the capital requirements through 2018?

Maybe you should publish that analysis so in 2 years time, people can see how correct you were.

Is this something you are willing to share?

Anyone who has more than 10 years of experience and paid attention, should know those true stories. If you don't know, that says something. You have to do your own homework.

My views/analysis are posted and I have never modified them. If anyone care, they can check them today, next year or in 10 years. There are analysis I keep to myself mainly because I don't want to share with shorts and trolls. They deserve what they got in the past and deserve what they will get in the future. I will add you back to my ignore list.

 

[esk8mw]

Except sales of Oberklasse segment were steadily increasing 2009-2014 as shown here.

YOU
ARE
WRONG

He's clearly not interested in logic or sound arguments. You've soundly debunked his ridiculous claims.

 

[Value Ev]

Anyone who has more than 10 years of experience and paid attention, should know those true stories.

Ok. So you have nothing specific. Only stories you heard.
Thank you kindly.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You are adding a premium car (Tesla) into the luxury segment while selectively adding other luxury brands in order to argue the luxury segment has been growing? Now that is funny. Let me Laugh out Loud (LOL).

You are just making stuff up. All cars in my data belong to large luxury segment - Oberklasse - as defined by German government. German Government agency KBA - not me - puts Model s in Oberklasse segment.

The simple truth is that since 2009 this segment in US, contrary to your baseless claims, increased sales, with sharp reversal in 2014 when Model S started to take a bite from the Oberklasse segment. The decline in sales of other cars in Oberklasse segment is numerically equal to the increase of deliveries of Model S.

 

[racer26]

I think part of the trouble with comparing MS to the Oberklasse segment is that there's some debate as to which segment MS fits in.

Its not quite as large as BMW 7-series and Mercedes S-class, but its definitely bigger than BMW 5-series and Mercedes E-class.

 

[ggr]

Daily reminder, let's stop responding to these members. And try not to quote them out of respect to our members trying to ignore such noise.

Wrong! DO quote them, then we (who are ignoring them) don't see the reply either.

The ignore function works really really well.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think part of the trouble with comparing MS to the Oberklasse segment is that there's some debate as to which segment MS fits in.

Its not quite as large as BMW 7-series and Mercedes S-class, but its definitely bigger than BMW 5-series and Mercedes E-class.

Model S classified as belonging to Oberklasse (Superclass) according to the German Government agency KBA, along with BMW 7-Series and MB S-Class.

MB E-Class, BMW 5-Series are not - they belong to a lower Obere Mittelklasse (Upper Middle Class).

 

[racer26]

Additionally, I expect MS is currently sniping less buyers than it used to from the Prius price point. Those buyers are the ones most Osborned by the 3.

 

[austinEV]

Really, folks, just put them on ignore. I don't understand the rationale for keeping them off ignore. You seem to think that you are surrendering to bullish groupthink if you do. Not so. if there is some material change in the investment thesis, respectable quality members will bring it up. I don't know what you are reacting to due to the magic of ignore but it must be really dumb.

 

[Value Ev]

You are just making stuff up. All cars in my data belong to large luxury segment - Oberklasse - as defined by German government. It is German Government - not me - puts Model s in Oberklasse segment.

.

You are taking a German definition of what the US luxury market is? Tesla's definition isn't good enough for you? Now that is funny.
Was the Zambian government interpretation of what the German government thinks of the US market not available?
The German government doesn't think the Jaguar is luxury? Nor the e550, AMG line, Cadillac XTS, Equus, Genesis, Maserati?

 

[Value Ev]

Really, folks, just put them on ignore. I don't understand the rationale for keeping them off ignore.

I have no problem with responding to @vgrinshpun since at least he puts data out there. No need to ignore people who are not doing personal attacks and using data in their discussions.

 

[racer26]

Really, folks, just put them on ignore. I don't understand the rationale for keeping them off ignore. You seem to think that you are surrendering to bullish groupthink if you do. Not so. if there is some material change in the investment thesis, respectable quality members will bring it up. I don't know what you are reacting to due to the magic of ignore but it must be really dumb.

Main reason I don't have anyone on ignore is because of the hiding replies. I frequently start a post with a reply to someone else, and then go on to expand a thought later in the same post. I don't want to miss posts like this by having someone ignored, and thus missing other people replying to them.

 

[KnowLittle]

Does anyone have visibility into Colin Rusch's model? I'm interested in his forecasts on revenue/profit with his scenario of 12.5B+ 2018 CapEx. I could not find anything online.

 

[Jayjs20]

Isn't it about time we split the short term thread? People have been using it as a general for too long.

 

[racer26]

You are taking a German definition of what the US luxury market is? Tesla's definition isn't good enough for you? Now that is funny.
Was the Zambian government interpretation of what the German government thinks of the US market not available?
The German government doesn't think the Jaguar is luxury? Nor the e550, AMG line, Cadillac XTS, Equus, Genesis, Maserati?

Dude. The class of cars does not change dependent on where in the world you are - some cars are missing from the class in different markets primarily because they aren't sold there. There are many models by the Japanese manufacturers that aren't available outside Japan (Kei cars especially, but other models also), so they won't show up in US numbers.

The biggest companies in the large luxury/Oberklasse segment are German, so it makes sense to trust the German classification that Model S is a large luxury/Oberklasse car. The US numbers classify it that way too.

 

[racer26]

Isn't it about time we split the short term thread? People have been using it as a general for too long.

Honestly I don't think it will matter. It evolved this way because this thread is one of the most active general discussion threads, as short-term necessarily means it covers the current news. That leads to people expanding thoughts here, which makes it devolve into a lot more than *just* short-term discussion.

 

[esk8mw]

Does anyone have visibility into Colin Rusch's model? I'm interested in his forecasts on revenue/profit with his scenario of 12.5B+ 2018 CapEx. I could not find anything online.

I don't have visibility, but at the same time I'm not sure how valuable it would be if it's "obviously wrong" per Elon.

 

[tander]

Does anyone have visibility into Colin Rusch's model? I'm interested in his forecasts on revenue/profit with his scenario of 12.5B+ 2018 CapEx. I could not find anything online.

My guess without seeing it is that he's estimating capex at the very high end, and that Tesla pays for everything, and not taking into account any partnerships or cashflows from battery/solar sales.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I have no problem with responding to @vgrinshpun since at least he puts data out there. No need to ignore people who are not doing personal attacks and using data in their discussions.

Which can't be said about you.

 

[Drax7]

Does anyone have visibility into Colin Rusch's model? I'm interested in his forecasts on revenue/profit with his scenario of 12.5B+ 2018 CapEx. I could not find anything online.

Don't bother really