The volume is really low on these, yahoo opt chain is showing 3 traded today. You basically just have to pay ask price?
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The volume is really low on these, yahoo opt chain is showing 3 traded today. You basically just have to pay ask price?
+1. As a long-term investor quarterly and even yearly earnings are kind of a waste of time. But for trading and just getting a good long term price that discord level is a probably a pretty good indicator. The more posts about not understanding/liking X new development just means that Tesla is doing what it does, when they've gone a year or two without doing something that makes people scratch their heads maybe that's when to sell.
Yeah guess it shows how much skepticism there is about the SCTY and the merger.
I kind of saw it coming. Sure you can try to time the market with your entry points. If you think that you can do it, you'd be better off acting on your ability to do that in other, more profitable ways.
Guess the nice thing with growth stocks is as long as you don't buy them at the heigh of the .com bubble or something it's always a good time to buy.
I suspect the only people writing these options are random longs, who know how to sell calls, but don't necessarily understand how options work, or are happy to get some premium for their shares while waiting for the vote. The spread and volume is extremely low. Maybe 5-10 call volume daily for any strike price. The bid:ask spread is almost completely arbitrary.
Correct it is a log scale. Note that the two previous bands are the same size on a log scale, so it was a deliberate choice. But, my lines are insanely optimistic so how about this version (and I expect a bump in 2 years if it turns out my original one was right
)Nothing is 100% sure in life. My prediction is just an educated guess.
I think Tesla will reach 1T in 10 years and will not stop there, the next step is 3T and potentially more upside. However I am strongly against margin and against too much concentration. Investing in five stocks is better, that's assume the investor really know what he/she is doing. Those who diversified into 5 holdings but one of the holding is MBLY, I think that's worse than concentrating into TSLA. Those people who don't have enough knowledge and experience should stick with index fund. Then use dividend to accumulate their favorite stocks.
Right now many people view Tesla as a small car company losing money every quarter. They hope in a few years, big boys will have competing models and Tesla will suffer a lot.
In my view, Tesla has already shown it's a different kind of company. The master plan part one worked beautifully, part two is less challenging than part one. I think it will work out as planned. If autonomous works, by 2021, Tesla could make $10B profit from car business and ride sharing, plus $5B from solar and energy storage. At P/E 20, that's roughly 10 fold from today. Once Tesla has cash for growth, the master plan part 3 will be easier than part 2.
I think the market will soon change the way how they model Tesla. Many people, including some shorts, will realize Tesla is not just a car company, even the vehicle unit is not a normal car unit, it's slowly changing into software/AI/ride sharing.
I watch the progress of autonomous driving, that's far more important than how many cars sold in Q3 or Q4, ZEVs, margin, etc. Whether Tesla made a GAAP profit or lost money in Q3 really isn't a big deal to me. The fact Tesla started to sell autonomous driving as an option, tells me they are on track.
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My math was $20 strike price and about $5 premium, so that's about 227 a share of TSLA unless I'm doing something wrong or the merger terms change.
racer26
Active Member
That's correct. But the Jan 2019 SCTY @ 10 Call is a way better deal, even with the gargantuan bid/ask spread on it right now. Buying it at the ask of 11.40 (representing a total cost of $21.40/SCTY) is like buying TSLA at $194.54
Getting that same SCTY@10 J19 at the 9.62 last trade price is like buying TSLA at 178.36 or a 13.6% gain over current TSLA price. -- That's even better than buying SCTY common at the 19.95 close price (which is like TSLA at 181.36)
Frankly, I'm not sure why the 1 volume today traded at the 9.62 price, since that's actually lower than its intrinsic value was at any point today.
SCTY@10 calls would turn into TSLA1 calls @ 90.91, delivering 11 shares per call.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You forgot the TE 2 era ("equal to cars, but will scale faster").
You place a limit order between the bid/ask. Start low, and increase it periodically. You will probably do better if you pick strikes with a lot of open interest which also positions you better for selling in the future.
racer26
Active Member
Yeah. It seems like the giant bid/ask spreads are being watched by algos and when they see a price offered by you that they're happy with, they take you up on it even though you're miles from the bid/ask. I usually start a bit above the bid of whatever option I'm buying, and change my order up a little every few minutes until it goes. Usually when it goes, its gone before I can even refresh the page from changing my order, which tells me it was sold by a computer, not a person.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thanks! I also noticed when I hit a certain price it normally goes very quickly, but I didn't
put 2 + 2 together, so I'd wait a couple of hours to change my order.Maybe we should start an options trading thread for selling and buying options from each other when the bid/ask is large? SCTY LEAPS and high and low strike price TSLA LEAPS would be good candidates.
Thanks! I also noticed when I hit a certain price it normally goes very quickly, but I didn't
Maybe we should start an options trading thread for selling and buying options from each other when the bid/ask is large? SCTY LEAPS and high and low strike price TSLA LEAPS would be good candidates.
If the entire global economy is not delivering enough interest in certain options, asking 20 more people online should not logically improve your bid/ask spread. But it would be an amusing thread:
For sale! 2 contracts of SCTY J18 $17!!!! Barely used!!! $2.05 OBO!! must see to believe!!!!!!
racer26
Active Member
Having watched it when I'm doing it, I set my price, and I watch the lots at bid price number to see if I'm alone at that price. For the first few prices I pick, I usually find that some fraction of the algos follow me up the bid price. I keep raising my limit price until I'm alone, and then leave it for a few minutes (and it either goes to a buyer, or an algo when the price ticks over a certain point), and if it still doesn't go, I push my price up some more until it does (or I decide its too rich for my blood and there's a better price available at a different strike or expiry). I also change my price if I see I'm no longer alone at the bid price. I do the same (only with the ask price and stepping down) when selling. Basically, I assume the bid/ask price is for suckers that use a market order instead of a limit order.Thanks! I also noticed when I hit a certain price it normally goes very quickly, but I didn't
Maybe we should start an options trading thread for selling and buying options from each other when the bid/ask is large? SCTY LEAPS and high and low strike price TSLA LEAPS would be good candidates.
Let me guess . This is the Montana family office hedge fund dude's "article". He is unusually prolific with his anti Tesla articles, even though he claimed he is going to slow down and enjoy other things in life. I guess Chanos asked all the small time Wall St types to ratchet it up a bit because I am seeing a flurry of anti TSLA articles on SA this week.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Tesla apparently live streaming the event Friday from Universal Studios. Sounds like a bigly event!
Hope it's something we don't know about this time so the SP doesn't drop 6 points overnight again.
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