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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I think there is a pretty common misconception going around that Tesla Network and fully autonomous driving is going to be released next year. It is not. The only timeline on fully autonomous driving is that Elon said towards the end of 2017 they will do a fully autonomous cross country road trip.

Cross country road trip implies both technological and regulartory approval. Yes it just implies. But musk has a tendency to telegraph all his passes pretty far ahead
 
Cross country road trip implies both technological and regulartory approval. Yes it just implies. But musk has a tendency to telegraph all his passes pretty far ahead

Not sure how much regulatory at this point. I do not know how much regulatory approval was needed for Audi and MB to run autonomous vehicles during CES. May just need someone sitting in there to take over when needed. Also Carnegie Mellon has plenty of videos of their autonomous cars roaming around Pittsburgh for several years now. As usual, with a driver sitting in there, just in case.
 
I am still waiting for your epic short squeeze triggered by the share recall that was going to propel the stock to all time highs that you relentlessly peddled in this thread.

As I remember, vgrinshpun brought the recall issue to our attention with various different levels of optimism expressed over time. Naturally, you chose the most extreme for your example. The theory was good that something very positive could have come out of the recall if it had transpired as hoped, but the hundreds of variables didn't align positively and the recall bump didn't amount to much. I'm glad vgrinshpun shared the idea with us. We're all ultimately responsible for judging whether to bet our own money on such a speculation.

Similarly, if you see the potential for something good or bad to happen to the stock price, please share it. Members will judge its likelihood both upon the evidence you offer and the level of your credibility. It's easy to be a critic. Contributing something worthwhile to this group is another matter.
 
Judging by the lack of a short squeeze suggests that this stock is being (well) managed by someone. It is not a simple stock that reacts to simple events. Expected extreme events are muted. It appears to me that the larger players control it to maximize their incomes, whether from interest payments or working its fluctuations. The number of available shares to short seems not to be random but managed.
 
The survey only questioned 675 German owners with some margin or error. I bet if you had a similar survey about proper use and understanding of seat belts you'd have trouble breaking 98% of people following proper use / awareness.
Really?!

autopilot-survey.png

Look at number seven..


And I was a little shocked when someone posted that what they picked up their MX that they were not given any instructions on how to use AP.

Don't you agree that it would be much better and safer if they (for example) hired @Papafox to produce a four or five minute video, that owners were required to watch, before driving the car the first time so that the DS could answer any questions?

Does you think that if they did that, plus they explained the limitations verbally, and possibles required a signature that they could hit close to 99.9%?


Cross country road trip implies both technological and regulartory approval. Yes it just implies. But musk has a tendency to telegraph all his passes pretty far ahead
I think that implies someone sitting in the car, like the demonstration video that they produced.
 
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Judging by the lack of a short squeeze suggests that this stock is being (well) managed by someone. It is not a simple stock that reacts to simple events. Expected extreme events are muted. It appears to me that the larger players control it to maximize their incomes, whether from interest payments or working its fluctuations. The number of available shares to short seems not to be random but managed.
I used to not believe in such theories, however there have been too many positive catalysts in the last few months without any real or sustainable market reaction. Most securities have modest sustained gains after good news and moreso after great numbers-- not even rumors, actual published production numbers.

Next catalyst: safety rating for MX. MX was intro'd with the first fews slides in the presentation on the MX on safety, not on the actual car.
 
Also on another note, almost all the posters on this thread minimized the chances of Trump becoming president. And when I voiced my concerns, my concerns were minimized and mocked (i.e., "no way, impossible he wins, if he does I'll eat my socks, etc). I think that's a weakness of the culture here. Legitimate concerns are minimized and made seem to be foolish and that's tolerated.

100% spot on. I posted my concerns about a Trump victory numerous times and was derided:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

We have a major echo chamber going on here and a number of users who present their (possibly educated) guesses on markets and price action with completely unwarranted certainty. It's worse than useless.
 
Similarly, if you see the potential for something good or bad to happen to the stock price, please share it. Members will judge its likelihood both upon the evidence you offer and the level of your credibility. It's easy to be a critic. Contributing something worthwhile to this group is another matter.

I know you didn't ask for my advice but continuing to blame the SP drop on coordinated attack by short sellers who are manipulating the stock is hurting your credibility.
 
Hate to see Americans getting laid off, M3 demand might of had something to do with low demand for GM products.

GM laying off over 2,000 at 2 car plants as sales slow

Maybe the Model 3, but I suspect it is more likely due to low gas prices and greater demand for SUV/CUVs.

Can't wait until the Model Y comes out. Then if GM starts shuttering their SUV/CUV production (without a rise in gas prices), then we will definitely know it's the Tesla affect.
 
Maybe the Model 3, but I suspect it is more likely due to low gas prices and greater demand for SUV/CUVs.

Can't wait until the Model Y comes out. Then if GM starts shuttering their SUV/CUV production (without a rise in gas prices), then we will definitely know it's the Tesla affect.

The more I think about M3 demand the less incline I think model Y will be available anytime soon. I believe the massive m3 demands will keep Tesla busy for at least 8-10 years out. It would be prudent for Tesla to concentrate on higher end models that could contribute to greater profits when batteries are scarce, don't forget we still have TE demands to satisfy also. Better to leave the lower end model Y to bottom feeders like GM who are aiming at the lower end market where margins are razer thin. Tesla isn't running a charity here, at least not yet. Once we dominant big auto, we can talk about philanthropy in model Y for all. As of the moment, if one wants their hands on the hottest toy, then one just has to pay in order to play.
 
Maybe the Model 3, but I suspect it is more likely due to low gas prices and greater demand for SUV/CUVs.

Can't wait until the Model Y comes out. Then if GM starts shuttering their SUV/CUV production (without a rise in gas prices), then we will definitely know it's the Tesla affect.

More likely demand for Civic,Corolla, Focus as well a shrinking pie for compact cars resulting from low gas prices.
 
I know you didn't ask for my advice but continuing to blame the SP drop on coordinated attack by short sellers who are manipulating the stock is hurting your credibility.

Time out. Look at the daily chart pattern of SCTY and TSLA that Papafox has posted the last several days. Start on post 319. They are almost exactly the same. Same approximate times of down thrusts and flattening, and rises. If there was no coordinated movement, their patterns should be relatively independent, but they're not. Coincidence? If these are folks selling TSLA and buying SCTY to take advantage of the arbitrage, one should rise, the other will fall.

Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Also, if you look at their daily candlestick patterns on a weekly/monthly basis they are remarkably similar as well. I know most folks here poo-poo charting, but there is something going on here.

Doubt most people and institutions had both SCTY and TSLA and decided to coordinate their own selling to lose the most amount of money they can.

Sorry, I'm with Papafox on this one.
 
The more I think about M3 demand the less incline I think model Y will be available anytime soon. I believe the massive m3 demands will keep Tesla busy for at least 8-10 years out. It would be prudent for Tesla to concentrate on higher end models that could contribute to greater profits when batteries are scarce, don't forget we still have TE demands to satisfy also. Better to leave the lower end model Y to bottom feeders like GM who are aiming at the lower end market where margins are razer thin. Tesla isn't running a charity here, at least not yet. Once we dominant big auto, we can talk about philanthropy in model Y for all. As of the moment, if one wants their hands on the hottest toy, then one just has to pay in order to play.

Yep. But I'd love to see the Model Y!:D
 
Ok I didn't want to post charts here, but it seems I need to back up my assertion in support of @Papafox. Look at the last week or so of candlesticks for SCTY and TSLA. I drew some crappy arrows to show the movements. They are almost identical. Red days vs. green days. Overall trends. Price position differs because they have dramatically different price points. You can only move so much when your stock price is as low as SCTY.

SCTY_TSLA_20161111_1.jpg


Judge for yourself.
 
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