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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Worry no longer my friend, I'll even send Trump a congrats in the mail with the socks That came out of my bottom, including a sock eating manual in case he got booted from the white house for losing his bet to build a wall and make america great again.

Dear beloved DaveT,

Admittedly I was blind and failed to see and you were absolutely correct at predicting that Mr. Trump was going to win the historic 2016 presidency. A bet goes 2 ways, I wish Trump had lost so We would get to watch you eating your socks instead. I thought that was your end of a fair bet, wasn't it?

If what I quoted above wasn't clear about my seriousness of this one way bet, don't worry I intend to hold up my end. It's just that the difficult tasks above might take some time to complete - You know writing sock eating manual for the POTUS and all, there is no guarantee that you'd see my video Before seeing a completed mexican wall.

In addition, as my investment in this silly electric car company is going down the drain due to my inability to predict the outcome of this election, I hope My failed bet did not cause you or your dear friends to follow and lose money as I did. On second thought, I am sure it didn't as you are the wiser and more cautious one. I am very naive as you can see, and like you always say, part of the naive herd on this forum. Probably the worst of them all.

As a current priority, I have to scramble for more funds to double down on this silly money losing car company should its stock declines further to $160 as they say.

Again I sincerely apologize for the delay in producing sock eating video and all which will be done after Mr. Trump completed the great Mexican Wall. Feel free to help him build faster if you can't wait.

I hope you'd understand the challenges I am facing.

Sincerely yours,
Xpert the sock eating loser.
 
The more I think about M3 demand the less incline I think model Y will be available anytime soon. I believe the massive m3 demands will keep Tesla busy for at least 8-10 years out. It would be prudent for Tesla to concentrate on higher end models that could contribute to greater profits when batteries are scarce, don't forget we still have TE demands to satisfy also. Better to leave the lower end model Y to bottom feeders like GM who are aiming at the lower end market where margins are razer thin. Tesla isn't running a charity here, at least not yet. Once we dominant big auto, we can talk about philanthropy in model Y for all. As of the moment, if one wants their hands on the hottest toy, then one just has to pay in order to play.

The Model Y is supposed to cost a bit more than the 3. It won't be a bottom feeder. And since it'll be on the Model 3 platform, it will likely be on the same assembly line, like the S and the X line. It'll have the same "designed for easy production" as the 3, so it should be straightforward to ramp up production when demand for the 3 levels off.
 
The Model Y is supposed to cost a bit more than the 3. It won't be a bottom feeder. And since it'll be on the Model 3 platform, it will likely be on the same assembly line, like the S and the X line. It'll have the same "designed for easy production" as the 3, so it should be straightforward to ramp up production when demand for the 3 levels off.

I somehow missed this "Y" announcement within the previous CC. A quick search indicates you are correct, the "Y" is a crossover and will be a bit higher in price than the 3. Best news all week...
 
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I know you didn't ask for my advice but continuing to blame the SP drop on coordinated attack by short sellers who are manipulating the stock is hurting your credibility.

In support of Papafox I have to remind us all of the SP reaction to the record Q3 delivery numbers, the Q3 profit and the solar roof. The SP action on those days did not make sense at all, specially Oct 27 to Nov 4. Same story when we were close to the 200 & 50 DMA's.

As Papafox's daily thread clearly shows there are strange large sales orders on many days of the past weeks. These would not make sense in case a large shareholder would want to sell a large number of their shares, they would spread the sales order over many small ones over a longer time.

Several here have also pointed to the clear correlation on several days between the SP action and the availability of shares available to short.

Personally I do agree with those posters here who have pointed out that some big party(s) might be going short on large numbers of shares selling them in a short amount of time, pushing down the SP, to slowly cover later on the same day with small orders to take profit. Rinse & repeat. The daily charts seem to support that theory.

If I had a few 100M to play with, I might have considered playing the same "game", where it not that I am in TSLA and SCTY for other reasons than making a quick buck (and I do not have 100M either :rolleyes:).

I will however happily accept making the long-term big buck as my reward for believing in and supporting the Tesla vision :)
 
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Don't you agree that it would be much better and safer if they (for example) hired @Papafox to produce a four or five minute video, that owners were required to watch, before driving the car the first time so that the DS could answer any questions?

No. I think you'll find that the overwhelming majority of those who do not keep their hands on the wheel with autopilot know that they are actually supposed to do so. Hands up (pun intended), who hasn't at least tried it, just to test the limits of the system. I bet you 98% will raise their hands and the other 2% are liars. It's human nature : there are so many things we know we are supposed to do but disregard anyway because 'we know better'. People speed, people run stop signs or lights, people will not keep their distance, people will drive when they are tired, people short TSLA ... the list is near endless. And at the end of that list there is the latest new thing : people will drive AP outside its limits. A 4 minute video is going to do nothing to solve that problem.

Coincidently, this is why we need a better autopilot. Because, contrary to a human, it will not do something it knows it shouldn't.

Coincidently, it is also why we should judge the safety of the APv1 within the context of human nature. Yes that Chinese driver would be at blame for his accident. But autopilot enabled him in his stupidity. And therefore we should take that into account when deciding if AP is an overall good or bad. Just as we should evaluate a cars safety at speeds you are actually not supposed to travel at.
 
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With short interest in the latter half of October barely increasing, is fair to conclude that the lackluster reaction to earnings wasn't due to shorting but rather because of missing longs?

The number published is just a snapshot.
Selling large bundles of shares in a short time, covering in small lots later (same day, or few days later). On average that is close to holding zero shares short.
 
That German A/P poll is hilarious. I'm a professional pilot and am also well versed on creating tests (ran the advanced training program for multiple fighter squadrons in the 90's).

Asking a question such as, 'you do know that you have to turn on Autopilot via the center screen, don't you?' is so leading it's ridiculous. If you asked 'Model S is delivered with Autopilot installed and is activated by two pulls of the steering wheel side control knob' would yield very different results.

Look at each question and you'll see what I mean. Hardly 'independent'. I say this because calling it 'autopilot' is a misnomer....it should be called 'assisted driving'.
 
Not sure how much regulatory at this point. I do not know how much regulatory approval was needed for Audi and MB to run autonomous vehicles during CES. May just need someone sitting in there to take over when needed. Also Carnegie Mellon has plenty of videos of their autonomous cars roaming around Pittsburgh for several years now. As usual, with a driver sitting in there, just in case.

Which of course, means that those demonstrations are all level-3 and not level-5.
Don't forget, level-3 means full autonomous driving, but with a driver sitting there, paying attention ready to take over if necessary. Level-4 means no supervision needed but limited by conditions such as visibility and road quality. Level-5 requires the system to be able to drive without supervision even in inclement weather (bad visibility), bad road conditions, such as snow and ice on road. That can still very easily be 5 years down the road for Tesla, IMHO.

However, if they demonstrate level-3 in a year, that is still a major step forward and leading the industry.
 
100% spot on. I posted my concerns about a Trump victory numerous times and was derided:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

We have a major echo chamber going on here and a number of users who present their (possibly educated) guesses on markets and price action with completely unwarranted certainty. It's worse than useless.

Unless the derision has been deleted I see mostly positive votes to your posts. I was always concerned about the real possibility of a Trump win, never discounted it, but it did seem unlikely up until the very end. I don't think my trading strategy would have differed if I thought there was a 40% chance of a Trump win instead of a 20% chance, so I don't buy into the "worse than useless" "echo chamber" theory.
 
Happy Veterans Day to all veterans and thank you for your service.

happy-veterans-day-pictures.jpg
 
Unless the derision has been deleted I see mostly positive votes to your posts. I was always concerned about the real possibility of a Trump win, never discounted it, but it did seem unlikely up until the very end. I don't think my trading strategy would have differed if I thought there was a 40% chance of a Trump win instead of a 20% chance, so I don't buy into the "worse than useless" "echo chamber" theory.
Yeah, I think most expected Trump to lose, but I think most weren't at all certain. That's where I was at least: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1812582/
 
Wow!!!

Trump vowed to enter a trade war with China? I missed that vow. Do you have a link to that vow?

All I found was saying he wants to end unfair trade. Do people here have a problem with ending unfair trade?
It matters naught whether people here have or haven't such a problem...as long as people in China do. That's all that is needed to start a trade war.

Snark with me....or snark with a Moderator...and you'll lose every time.
 
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A portion of an answer to an analyst’s question by Tesla chip supplier Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jen-Hsun Huang from this afternoon’s (Nov 10) earnings conference call:

And I think what Tesla has done by launching and having on the road in the very near-future here, a full autonomous driving capability using AI, that has sent a shock wave through the automotive industry. It's basically five years ahead. Anybody who's talking about 2021 and that's just a non-starter anymore. And I think that that's probably the most significant bit in the automotive industry. I just don't – anybody who is talking about autonomous capabilities in 2020 and 2021 is at the moment re-evaluating in a very significant way.


Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/402...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

NVidia CEO also said:
"
And so I think people now recognize that AI computing is a very software-rich problem and it is a supremely exciting AI problem, and that deep learning and GPUs could add a lot of value. And it's going happen in 2017. It's not going to happen in 2021. And so I think number one. Number two, our strategy is to deploy a one architecture platform that is open that car companies could work on to leverage our software stack and create their network, their artificial intelligence network. And then we would address everything from highway cruising, excellent highway cruising to all the way to full autonomous to trucks to shuttles. And using one computing architecture, we could apply it for radar-based systems or radar plus cameras, radar plus cameras plus lidars, we could use it for all kinds of sensor fusion environments.

And so I think – our strategy, I think, is really resonating well with the industry as people now realize that we need the computation capability five years earlier. That we – that it's not a detection problem, but it's an AI computing problem and that software is really intensive. That these three observations, I think, has put us in a really good position.
"

Whose software is most significant in solving this AI problem? Tesla's? Or NVidia' software stack?
 
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