Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

All these FUD articles fail to mention that Spacex is the lowest cost provider to space. Lockheed/Boeing (ULA) have republican backing of course.

.

Peter Thiel is an investor in SpaceX, a Republican and on Trump's team.
There is a lot more skin in the game there than any republican backing or ownership in Lockheed/Boeing.

 

[sub]

I don't do calls or puts - I'm one of those watch short-term and accumulate real shares. I'm good though, picked up some more SCTY at 19.65, so I'm happy with that. Crossing my fingers the merger goes better than the election...
Thx!

Sell an ATM put for max time value, if stock goes down you win because you get your shares cheaper, if it stays flat or goes up you still win because your sold put will lose most or all of its value. Least risk overall.

 

[MitchJi]

Just looked at the S-4, and it does appear that the S-4 requires the merger to be consummated within 3 business days of all the conditions listed in Article VII of the S-4 being completed (which are basically, that the vote has happened in the affirmative, that the requisite shares are approved for NASDAQ listing, and that there are no legal obligations restricting the completion of the merger.)

How long before SCTY options become harder to sell unusual TSLA-SCTY combo options?

Sounds like that depends on how long it takes for the NASDAQ listing approval. Any idea how long that takes?

 

[30seconds]

Boy, there's some real big hit pieces flying around on Spacex.

I'm not gonna link to them here...

All these FUD articles fail to mention that Spacex is the lowest cost provider to space. Lockheed/Boeing (ULA) have republican backing of course.

Interesting to see if NASA extends Spacex ISS contracts or not. You'd think they'd have a responsibility to award the lowest qualified bidder. Same with Airforce and DOD payloads. Will be very interesting.

Of course, Spacex will likely continue to get lots of commercial launches as long as they don't have more failures.

lobbying to get the russian made rockets back on the qual path for the DoD

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Just received this email:

 

[Nate the Great]

lobbying to get the russian made rockets back on the qual path for the DoD

Good thing are future president happens to know a guy!

 

[dirtyofries]

Good thing are future president, happens to know a guy!

Well, some days he knows him, some days he doesn't.

 

[Fallenone]

Not sure if anyone posted before. But the institutional holdings reports for Q3 are out. Not surprisingly, many sold quite a bit, which was reflected by the decreased share price under selling pressure. FMR is still the biggest holder but they sold 6.13% (or 1.27m of shares) of their holdings. Despite some not too positive comments by their manager, Ballie Gifford didn't sell much, only 1.77% (or 232k of shares). Price T Rowe sold quite a bit, 12.6% (or 1.32m of shares) but still the 3rd largest shareholder. For the current top 15 institutional holders, 8 sold a total of 5.4 m of shares. The rest bought 0.94m of shares. For all institutional holders, 3.2m shares were bought and 11.8m shares were sold. Very clear pattern of institutional shareholders exerting strong selling pressure causing stock price falling.

And for the theory of selling TSLA buying SCTY, I don't think that holds ground. SCTY also saw a net selling activity from institutional shareholders. FMR as the largest shareholder sold 13.6% of their holdings. Top 15 holders collectively sold 6m of shares, bought 3.4m or shares.

 

[techmaven]

Not sure if anyone posted before. But the institutional holdings reports for Q3 are out. Not surprisingly, many sold quite a bit, which was reflected by the decreased share price under selling pressure. FMR is still the biggest holder but they sold 6.13% (or 1.27m of shares) of their holdings. Despite some not too positive comments by their manager, Ballie Gifford didn't sell much, only 1.77% (or 232k of shares). Price T Rowe sold quite a bit, 12.6% (or 1.32m of shares) but still the 3rd largest shareholder. For the current top 15 institutional holders, 8 sold a total of 5.4 m of shares. The rest bought 0.94m of shares. For all institutional holders, 3.2m shares were bought and 11.8m shares were sold. Very clear pattern of institutional shareholders exerting strong selling pressure causing stock price falling.

And for the theory of selling TSLA buying SCTY, I don't think that holds ground. SCTY also saw a net selling activity from institutional shareholders. FMR as the largest shareholder sold 13.6% of their holdings. Top 15 holders collectively sold 6m of shares, bought 3.4m or shares.

I'm wondering if one of the problems is that they have to re-allocate since they would have too much of the combined company for their risk profile.

 

[Fallenone]

I'm wondering if one of the problems is that they have to re-allocate since they would have too much of the combined company for their risk profile.

Doubt it. Otherwise they won't buy that much in Q2 to get into this over-concentration position to begin with.

What worries me is FMR's words and deeds. They said nothing but good words about the merger but they sold shares. Not a ton I know but still makes me wonder if they are really that supportive.

 

[pGo]

Not sure if anyone posted before. But the institutional holdings reports for Q3 are out. Not surprisingly, many sold quite a bit, which was reflected by the decreased share price under selling pressure. FMR is still the biggest holder but they sold 6.13% (or 1.27m of shares) of their holdings. Despite some not too positive comments by their manager, Ballie Gifford didn't sell much, only 1.77% (or 232k of shares). Price T Rowe sold quite a bit, 12.6% (or 1.32m of shares) but still the 3rd largest shareholder. For the current top 15 institutional holders, 8 sold a total of 5.4 m of shares. The rest bought 0.94m of shares. For all institutional holders, 3.2m shares were bought and 11.8m shares were sold. Very clear pattern of institutional shareholders exerting strong selling pressure causing stock price falling.

And for the theory of selling TSLA buying SCTY, I don't think that holds ground. SCTY also saw a net selling activity from institutional shareholders. FMR as the largest shareholder sold 13.6% of their holdings. Top 15 holders collectively sold 6m of shares, bought 3.4m or shares.

Thanks. This puts to rest the speculation that it's only the short sellers causing the move down. Again, @DaveT and a few others were right in reading the situation. Kudos!!

 

[Intl Professor]

Where the rub comes in is with the latitude they have to determine "qualified

It is a mistake to believe in all cases that government contracts are awarded on their merits. This abuse is greatest regarding military spending. Eisenhower, that com-symp--according to Robert Welch, the alt-right of his day--warned us about the military-industrial-complex in his last address to the nation. Had I the franchise I would have voted for Ike both times. (That was an interesting time. Talulah Bankhead famously said, "I laikh Ike, but Ah'd lay Stevenson anytime.")

 

[Crowded Mind]

Thanks. This puts to rest the speculation that it's only the short sellers causing the move down. Again, @DaveT and a few others were right in reading the situation. Kudos!!

Literally no one said it was only short sellers causing the move down.

 

[Value Ev]

What worries me is FMR's words and deeds. They said nothing but good words about the merger but they sold shares. Not a ton I know but still makes me wonder if they are really that supportive.

You didn't expect them to say negative things while they were trying to sell their stock, did you?

 

[Papafox]

Thanks. This puts to rest the speculation that it's only the short sellers causing the move down. Again, @DaveT and a few others were right in reading the situation. Kudos!!

Sigh, I don't know of anyone saying it's only the short sellers causing TSLA to drop. Some of us believe that they're a big part of the picture (with 50% - 60% of daily trading activity, how could they not be?), but nobody is advocating one explanation and only one explanation. Shorts are like longs in that they respond to the perceived opportunity to make money on the investment, and developments with Tesla, including the merger, affect those perceptions.

 

[3Victoria]

Well, on the other hand, someone bought all those shares, they didn't evaporate.

 

[TMSE]

Not sure if anyone posted before. But the institutional holdings reports for Q3 are out. Not surprisingly, many sold quite a bit, which was reflected by the decreased share price under selling pressure. FMR is still the biggest holder but they sold 6.13% (or 1.27m of shares) of their holdings. Despite some not too positive comments by their manager, Ballie Gifford didn't sell much, only 1.77% (or 232k of shares). Price T Rowe sold quite a bit, 12.6% (or 1.32m of shares) but still the 3rd largest shareholder. For the current top 15 institutional holders, 8 sold a total of 5.4 m of shares. The rest bought 0.94m of shares. For all institutional holders, 3.2m shares were bought and 11.8m shares were sold. Very clear pattern of institutional shareholders exerting strong selling pressure causing stock price falling.

And for the theory of selling TSLA buying SCTY, I don't think that holds ground. SCTY also saw a net selling activity from institutional shareholders. FMR as the largest shareholder sold 13.6% of their holdings. Top 15 holders collectively sold 6m of shares, bought 3.4m or shares.

Did you compile this info from each of the 13Fs filed? Or, any other source?

 

[Fallenone]

Did you compile this info from each of the 13Fs filed? Or, any other source?

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings

 

[SBenson]

Not sure if anyone posted before. But the institutional holdings reports for Q3 are out. Not surprisingly, many sold quite a bit, which was reflected by the decreased share price under selling pressure. FMR is still the biggest holder but they sold 6.13% (or 1.27m of shares) of their holdings. Despite some not too positive comments by their manager, Ballie Gifford didn't sell much, only 1.77% (or 232k of shares). Price T Rowe sold quite a bit, 12.6% (or 1.32m of shares) but still the 3rd largest shareholder. For the current top 15 institutional holders, 8 sold a total of 5.4 m of shares. The rest bought 0.94m of shares. For all institutional holders, 3.2m shares were bought and 11.8m shares were sold. Very clear pattern of institutional shareholders exerting strong selling pressure causing stock price falling.

And for the theory of selling TSLA buying SCTY, I don't think that holds ground. SCTY also saw a net selling activity from institutional shareholders. FMR as the largest shareholder sold 13.6% of their holdings. Top 15 holders collectively sold 6m of shares, bought 3.4m or shares.

Apparently Elon went around telling that everyone else is already on board with SCTY merger. So each of these institutions felt that they have no choice but to lighten up as this is already a done deal. In their mind this merger only increases the risk profile of TSLA for little to no reward in immediate future.

 

[FredTMC]

lobbying to get the russian made rockets back on the qual path for the DoD

Very good point...