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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm not sure what you are asking? Another option if you believe that the SP is going to rise is to buy one call option for every 100 shares you want to buy.Just caught up on last night's news (thx for the recap and reactions). According to my super-elite Yahoo Finance stock price page, looks like TSLA is up in pre-market by .65% right now. And SCTY is up slightly less (so arb gap still gives me a discount in TSLA accumulation). If I am guessing (no pretensions here) that things may bounce up a tad, then bounce down in amateur hour (no offense to other amateurs, and btw, that word is not derogatory, last time I checked it meant "lovers"), I'm wondering... put in a buy order for SCTY (guessing they'll continue to track) at 19.30? I'm thinking that there will be some downward pressure as articles come out, but that enough people will see this as rising tide for all EVs....
Thoughts? PMs?
Happy Tuesday everyone, it's been a week (no Audie, I'm not going there, honest!!, just a slight inference for the sake of short-term perspective)
This is consistent with the insider info I had for a while: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1818622/
racer26
Active Member
Are you sure? I don't recall seeing anything in the merger S-4 and am unaware of any rules that require the two companies to consummate the agreed upon merger immediately after the successful vote. Could they not file separate 4Q16 results and consummate the merger on 1 Jan 2017 if they so choose?
dennis
Model S Plaid
Good point. Usually there is an expected closing date announced. Does anyone have the link to a searchable version of the S-4?
Next announcement in Q4 ER: Tesla has purchased its Gigafactory #2 in Nevada for pennies on the dollar and will double 2018 production to 1M cars.
I think we will have to survive some more bear attacks this week.
The question becomes what happens if the SCTY merger fails. And what happens if the merger succeeds. The short term crystal ball, which has been malfunctioning as of late anyways, doesn't even attempt to provide an answer.
The question becomes what happens if the SCTY merger fails. And what happens if the merger succeeds. The short term crystal ball, which has been malfunctioning as of late anyways, doesn't even attempt to provide an answer.
racer26
Active Member
No idea. I have to hope that removing merger uncertainty equals a positive impact on SP. Especially so for SCTY, since there seems to be a perception that SCTY is going to zero if merger fails, even though that's an insane notion because they could literally close the doors tomorrow and have $2B in cash come in over the next 20 years, so it seems to make sense that that thing should be worth about $2B (though a bit less for future value considerations). SCTY market cap is currently around $1.8B.
Then again, I thought last weeks result all but impossible, so what do I know?
But there is nothing there to buy but some flattened sand and maybe some foundation forms. (Of course maybe they could take over all of the tax breaks.)
But does Tesla really want two Gigafactories that close together?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that when it succeeds that there will probably be a small bump due to uncertainty mitigation. I believe if it passes by a high percentage that would also help.
racer26
Active Member
Just looked at the S-4, and it does appear that the S-4 requires the merger to be consummated within 3 business days of all the conditions listed in Article VII of the S-4 being completed (which are basically, that the vote has happened in the affirmative, that the requisite shares are approved for NASDAQ listing, and that there are no legal obligations restricting the completion of the merger.)
I don't do calls or puts - I'm one of those watch short-term and accumulate real shares. I'm good though, picked up some more SCTY at 19.65, so I'm happy with that. Crossing my fingers the merger goes better than the election...
Thx!
After the many pages of discussion, I'm not sure why this wasn't mentioned. How much cash on hand does SCTY have? ~$600 million (net) after all those funding rounds? After the merger, shouldn't the stock go up, as TSLA's cash position will improve by that much?
Kind of what I predicted a year ago, tesla will have another nice factory to buy cheap just like the one in fremont back then, and it conveniently is already located in the same state as the gigafactory.
That is why the lobbyists made it clear that the sound needs to identify the car 'as a motor vehicle'. I would prefer the gallopping and whinniing of a good old style horse carriage. Wouldnt that make a blind person be even more cautious ?
racer26
Active Member
I've been saying since FF first appeared on the scene that I would consider it vaporware until I saw an actual product ready to go into production. Camo'd prototypes and factories under construction do not a competitor make. Making cars is hard - as Roadster-era Tesla learned the hard way.
All these startups like FF and Lucid Motors are just trying to make the Tesla lightning strike again. For the sake of the planet, I hope they succeed, but there is a reason few do - and why I'm not concerned by their mere existence for my investments in Tesla.
All these startups like FF and Lucid Motors are just trying to make the Tesla lightning strike again. For the sake of the planet, I hope they succeed, but there is a reason few do - and why I'm not concerned by their mere existence for my investments in Tesla.
I still wouldn't count out Faraday Future. There were plenty of times that Tesla was in dire financial situations also and made it through. The Chinese government and industry seems to strongly believe in EVs, especially as a way into providing vehicles for advanced economies as the major global automakers still dither around.
What is particularly confusing is the relationships between Faraday Future, LeEco, and Lucid Motors. And then there are more Chinese backed initiatives, including Karma Automotive and NextEV. A slew of these basically hired global automotive talent to make companies that operate on U.S. soil, but are owned by the Chinese. This way, they basically pilfer some of the world's best without the stain of looking like they copied it all back in China. Add to that Volvo is owned by China's Geely. That's before we get to the ones based in China, like BYD.
At some point, this amount of money being spent will come up with something. And we may wake up and realize that China has been subsidizing their take over of the global automaking business for quite some time. And it isn't necessary the brands at the top, but through the entire supply chain.
For example: Putting the pedal to the metal: Subsidies to China’s auto-parts industry from 2001 to 2011
What is particularly confusing is the relationships between Faraday Future, LeEco, and Lucid Motors. And then there are more Chinese backed initiatives, including Karma Automotive and NextEV. A slew of these basically hired global automotive talent to make companies that operate on U.S. soil, but are owned by the Chinese. This way, they basically pilfer some of the world's best without the stain of looking like they copied it all back in China. Add to that Volvo is owned by China's Geely. That's before we get to the ones based in China, like BYD.
At some point, this amount of money being spent will come up with something. And we may wake up and realize that China has been subsidizing their take over of the global automaking business for quite some time. And it isn't necessary the brands at the top, but through the entire supply chain.
For example: Putting the pedal to the metal: Subsidies to China’s auto-parts industry from 2001 to 2011
I agree with many that if the SCTY merger fails (not likely), TSLA goes up and if it succeeds (likely) then the results are less clear. On the one hand, the shorts may very well sell during opening the following day to try defining the yes vote as a big negative for the stock and it takes a dip.
On the other hand, there will be relief in many quarters that the uncertainty of the merger is now over, the merger has been fairly effectively shown by Elon, Jason, and company to be relatively benign to Telsa's cash needs in the next year, and TSLA will in good time respond positively. Big institutions will at last give TSLA a more serious look because this major question mark has been removed. Maybe a good Q4 performance is needed before the big buyers jump in, but I strongly suspect Tesla is going to deliver an impressive ER in the coming quarter. The biggest positive of the merger is that there's little incentive for shorts to keep getting in deeper and deeper with TSLA when the stock price is this low. Their attempts to spoil the merger by depressing the SP failed, and this would be a logical time for many shorts to start closing positions and taking profits. Shorts have been seeking a failure of the merger because many are short both SCTY and TSLA and the perception is that SCTY will have troubles without Tesla.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Boy, there's some real big hit pieces flying around on Spacex.
I'm not gonna link to them here...
All these FUD articles fail to mention that Spacex is the lowest cost provider to space. Lockheed/Boeing (ULA) have republican backing of course.
Interesting to see if NASA extends Spacex ISS contracts or not. You'd think they'd have a responsibility to award the lowest qualified bidder. Same with Airforce and DOD payloads. Will be very interesting.
Of course, Spacex will likely continue to get lots of commercial launches as long as they don't have more failures.
I'm not gonna link to them here...
All these FUD articles fail to mention that Spacex is the lowest cost provider to space. Lockheed/Boeing (ULA) have republican backing of course.
Interesting to see if NASA extends Spacex ISS contracts or not. You'd think they'd have a responsibility to award the lowest qualified bidder. Same with Airforce and DOD payloads. Will be very interesting.
Of course, Spacex will likely continue to get lots of commercial launches as long as they don't have more failures.
I think that's for the most part true. There are certainly gov't contracts that are awarded based on multiple evaluation factors and not just low price.
Where the rub comes in is with the latitude they have to determine "qualified" or "responsive" bidder.
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