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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Imagine if an institution slowly sold 100,000 shares throughout a day with volume of 5 million shares. That's only about 2% of the total selling and if it was spread out it probably would have a slight negative but not a big negative influence upon the day's trading. Now consider if that same seller parted with those 100,000 shares in the first minute of market open. The results would be much different because the market would be somewhat shocked by the steep selloff at open. The psychology of the trading that day would have been changed. So, volume of selling within a one minute period is a factor. Then, consider if the selling is done in the first hour of trading, when volume is heavy or in the late afternoon, when volume is especially light. Selling as few as 2,000 shares in late afternoon is likely to depress the stock price, but that volume is insufficient to have much influence during high volume times of the day. So, time of day affects the volume being traded, which influences how much of an effect the selling will have. Consider, too, when short-selling, teamed up with FUD, causes stop-losses placed by longs to be trigged as the stock price descends. These triggers are often set for whole numbers, and so the shorts push to spring a stop-loss. The resulting flurry of selling is a perfect time for a short to cover for the day without seeing too much of a change in stock price.

Thank you for that. Then I wonder if those shares are slowly sold at regular volumes and intervals, say 2000 shares every minute. If so, it might show up in a spectral analysis of the volume vs time of stock sold. Though you probably couldn't do that on the free data available.
 
Yes please.
I may be horrible at searching but I haven't found a decent description of prismatic cells beyond containing them in a pouch...
Types of Battery Cells; Cylindrical Cell, Button Cell, Pouch Cell

“While the 18650 has a volume of 66cm3 with a capacity of around 3000mAh, the 97cm3 volume of the 2170(0) is said to produce a capacity of up to 6000mAh, essentially doubling the capacity with a 50% increase in volume”

“the 18650 has a higher energy density than a prismatic/pouch Li-ion cell.”

Spacing also helps in the thermal management. In addition, a cylindrical design does not change size. In comparison, a 5mm prismatic cell can expand to 8mm with use and allowances must be made.”

“Even though the cylindrical cell does not fully utilize the space by creating air cavities on side-by-side placement, the 18650 has a higher energy density than a prismatic/pouch Li-ion cell.”

“The higher energy density of the cylindrical cell compensates for its less ideal stacking abilities and the empty space can always be used for cooling to improve thermal management.”

Etc., etc., etc.,….

and i'm outa here
 
[QUOTE="Consider, too, when short-selling, teamed up with FUD, causes stop-losses placed by longs to be trigged as the stock price descends. These triggers are often set for whole numbers, and so the shorts push to spring a stop-loss. The resulting flurry of selling is a perfect time for a short to cover for the day without seeing too much of a change in stock price.[/QUOTE]

are there still market Makers (MM's) with an open book who know where the stop losses are placed. remember long ago when you had to keep stop loss figure in your head as the MM's would 'pick off' the S/L's, dropping price then turn around back up
 
maxpain


For those that follow 'MaxPain' and the effect it might have on ultra short term prices.
 
I found "Lithium-ion Cylindrical Cells Vs. Prismatic Cells" thought provoking. For large applications, pouch cells are often used, my understanding is that they are usually folded layers somewhat like prismatic. Cooling is cited as an argument against prismatic.

Comes down to cell IR (Internal Resistance) which causes heat and then heat dissipation. The bigger the pack, the less heating due to the draw being lower on a "C" basis. Drawing off an 60-100 kWh pack to go 60mph is easier on the batteries than an 18 kWh pack like in a Volt. Hard charging (ie Supercharging - or spirited driving, such as Bjorn on the Autobahn with the MX) will cause batteries to heat up. Bjorn got heat-related power limitations while driving fast due to drawing at a rate above 1C. Cruising at 55-60 is well below 1/4 C for a 90-100 kWh pack.

Stationary storage is supposed to work at 1/2C or lower. Good use of forced-air cooled cells of either form. Just use enough air circulation. Problems can when Li-Ion are mounted outside in 30*C+ ambient temps. The Cell Tower companies are looking at finding the best cells for non-air-conditioned environments such as cell tower standby systems for India and other very hot climates. They will want cells to not only stay in rooms of 35-40*C but charge/discharge within them too perhaps using on-site solar PV. CellCos will most likely use LiFEPO4 cells as long as they have the temperature tolerance. If A123 (revived by the Chinese) put out their EXT cells like they had planned, good chance of them having a good solution for that market. Products were too expensive. But what you do want is 8000-10,000 full charges (with losses down to just under 80% original capacity), heat tolerance and that means no requirement for extra energy load of AC. LTO is close to that now too. Similar conditions for energy storage for solar systems located in the Desert which the middle-east will be looking to do mid-term and long-term (as well as California desert).
 
<snip>

One interesting thought experiment though: We usually think a low stock price is marginally bad for TM since it raises the cost of capital. BUT and advantage of a lower-stable stock price is that it probably inhibits the startup scene. We ARE seeing some me-too auto startups which may amount to something. But if TSLA was at 450 there would be 10x the startups.

Thanks short sellers!

Lots of disadvantages to a depressed stock price but another advantage is (perhaps counterintuitively) for recruiting.

Options are the life-blood of Silicon Valley. If you are an ambitious young engineer or executive who has the choice to work at Google, Apple or Tesla, the greater potential upside for Tesla options could be a factor in where you choose to work (in addition to many other things including the job itself). That same upside potential could also minimize the temptation to jump ship to a start-up. Tesla is attracting the very best talent around, and this may be a small part of the equation.
 
Lots of disadvantages to a depressed stock price but another advantage is (perhaps counterintuitively) for recruiting.

Options are the life-blood of Silicon Valley. If you are an ambitious young engineer or executive who has the choice to work at Google, Apple or Tesla, the greater potential upside for Tesla options could be a factor in where you choose to work (in addition to many other things including the job itself). That same upside potential could also minimize the temptation to jump ship to a start-up. Tesla is attracting the very best talent around, and this may be a small part of the equation.

I was worrying other way around. A flat stock price for nearly 3 years in a row must be pretty disheartening to existing employees. As I know Tesla expects grueling amounts of hard work from employees, especially on the corporate/development side. It would be good for these employees to see some rewards for the hardwork.
 
I was worrying other way around. A flat stock price for nearly 3 years in a row must be pretty disheartening to existing employees. As I know Tesla expects grueling amounts of hard work from employees, especially on the corporate/development side. It would be good for these employees to see some rewards for the hardwork.

The longer the price stays low now stock options end up being more valuable to the employees later. If Tesla was trading at 1000k a share now Tesla would be offering 1/5th the as much to employees. As the bull sentiment in this forum has brought up often enough. Tesla is a long hold, not going anywhere tomorrow.
That being said, personally, I would be all for it rallying tomorrow to 210 heh
 
Pretty sure limit orders don't trigger after hours

orders HAVE to be limit orders. It is true that limit orders set during the regular session wouldn't fire, but extended hours orders are limits. I do this sort of thing all the time too, put in a limit order to buy a bargain or sell way too high to see if these glitches are real. Then never fill; they aren't real. They are late prints or some gremlin.
 
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I was worrying other way around. A flat stock price for nearly 3 years in a row must be pretty disheartening to existing employees. As I know Tesla expects grueling amounts of hard work from employees, especially on the corporate/development side. It would be good for these employees to see some rewards for the hardwork.

For people who are only in it for the money, I would agree.

For those who are invested in the mission of Tesla: to accelerate the global adoption of sustainable energy, I would say it is less relevant. I would guess that a lot of the talent at Tesla could make a lot more money working at Apple or Facebook than Tesla. There is a reason people choose to work for Tesla. This is about much more than money.
 
I was worrying other way around. A flat stock price for nearly 3 years in a row must be pretty disheartening to existing employees. As I know Tesla expects grueling amounts of hard work from employees, especially on the corporate/development side. It would be good for these employees to see some rewards for the hardwork.

This probably results in the 'distraction' that comes with being public that Elon complains about. Although most of these employees have witnessed huge progress and growth internally by Tesla, so you would imagine most believe the SP will catch up sooner or later, so would give incentive to keep working there as it would suck to work there for a few years, see options stagnate and then leave before Model 3 and the stock price likely leveling up.
 
I was puzzled by this initially as well, but after a closer look, forced cooling through the bottom makes more sense than through the wall. Cylindrical cell is a rolled sandwich with specific heat conductivity across sandwiched layers likely to be lower than through the bottom.

Yes, the side casing has greater surface area but the bottom has direct contact with the edge of each layer, not just the outer layer. A bottom cooling plate is also the design GM is using for the Bolt pouch cell based pack. Really interested in seeing your source material as I have not come across anything myself.
 
At some point they will either cause interest rates for TSLA borrowing to rise or they will start running low on funds to keep throwing at TSLA.

Only assuming their funds are limited. Let's hide and watch.
No -- if their funds are unlimited, at some point they will run out of shares to borrow and cause the rate paid to borrow TSLA to rise. It's happened three times before already! Some of us made nice little chunks of money off of it!
 
No -- if their funds are unlimited, at some point they will run out of shares to borrow and cause the rate paid to borrow TSLA to rise. It's happened three times before already! Some of us made nice little chunks of money off of it!
Or entities doing this will need to shift their 'investment play money' back into their core (own) business d/t upcoming expected new deregulations...
 
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