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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Not defending that guy, but you can also find videos where the care does it (without the radar looking below stuff) like here @46m33s


I'm not sure what I'm missing here. The video of yours looked to me like a "standard" AEB situation. The breaking lights were on, the car in front slowed visibly, the guy kept talking (but didn't break), the car in front got even slower and finally the AEB kicked in. There was no need to see "two cars ahead". This is fundamentally different from the Tesla video.

It is quite clear, that AEB systems exist. And some of them work (happy to post a few funny videos where they test them and they don't work) but I have yet to see a real life "two cars ahead" AEB video aside from that Tesla video just now.

EDIT: If your point was to confirm that AEB on a 2016 Mercedes works - all is good - let's move right along. I'm not disputing that :)
If your point was, that Mercedes has AEB that looks "two cars ahead and works well" then I need further convincing...
 
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I'm not sure what I'm missing here. The video of yours looked to me like a "standard" AEB situation. The breaking lights were on, the car in front slowed visibly, the guy kept talking (but didn't break), the car in front got even slower and finally the AEB kicked in. There was no need to see "two cars ahead". This is fundamentally different from the Tesla video.

It is quite clear, that AEB systems exist. And some of them work (happy to post a few funny videos where they test them and they don't work) but I have yet to see a real life "two cars ahead" AEB video aside from that Tesla video just now.
I have had firsthand experience with AEB on a new 2016 mercedes, works well. I have also had an episode of 'red car alert' and braking with tesla, this was from two cars ahead. How did i know- the car directly in front kept moving but eventually braked. Thankfully there was no accident.

Seeing two cars ahead is great, have to experience it firsthand to understand-- file this one under: not rocket science.
 
Date Open High Low Close Volume
12/15/2016 198.41 200.74 197.39 197.58 4,147,314
11/30/2016 191 191.89 187.5 189.4 3,544,891
11/15/2016 182.78 186.43 182.05 183.77 3,899,743
10/31/2016 202.49 202.49 195.81 197.73 4,691,320

Today
12/27/2016 215 222.25 214.42 219.53 5,910,087


TSLA Short Interest

Settlement Date
Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
12/15/2016 35,389,874 4,058,486 8.719969
11/30/2016 35,687,317 4,326,986 8.247616
11/15/2016 31,530,489 5,052,703 6.240321
10/31/2016 28,795,864 5,286,990 5.446552

Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
 
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TSLA Short Interest

Settlement Date
Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
12/15/2016 35,389,874 4,058,486 8.719969
11/30/2016 35,687,317 4,326,986 8.247616
11/15/2016 31,530,489 5,052,703 6.240321
10/31/2016 28,795,864 5,286,990 5.446552

Read more: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Am I doing this correctly? Also, I assume this shouldn't be a direct extrapolation.

But with 35,389,874 shares held short, a little under 161mm shares in circulation, the share price is being depressed by a little over $48 per share. Is this right?
 
Well, there is a serious lack of cheerleading on this board.

YAY 219!!! Above the 200MA, first time since August!
Me too! I'm already up 75% on a small number of Jan06 2017 $220 calls that I bought for the q4 numbers and the GF event :).
I am officially financially ahead of when I correctly guessed the Q3 would be a knockout and somehow lost money on it. :mad::rolleyes:
I believe that this surge is partially due to the market figuring out that the Q3 were not smoke and mirrors. If that's correct it means that a good Q4 is partially being priced in, but also a reason that confirmation via good delivery numbers and a good Q4 ER-CC should cause a substantial SP bump.

I also think that it's partially due to the market figuring out that SCTY isn't likely to be a short-term financial black hole for Tesla. If that's correct that provides another way that confirmation via a good Q4 ER-CC should cause a substantial SP bump.

This means that I think that a repeat of the combination of an SP dip and a positive quarter is highly unlikely.
 
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The mechanics of short and how it translates into a dollar amount would be difficult to predict. It's kind of like a compressed spring. You don't know how much stored energy the spring has till it pops. Lets start with the facts. You start with shares outstanding @ 161,088,699 of with 35,389,874 have been borrowed, then resold on the open market. So now we have effectively have 196,478,573 owned in brokerage accounts. Tesla float (number of shares actually available for trading) is around 117.9M shares. Now if the stock starts to climb and we have 40% of the float shorted it can cause a big imbalance between the demand and availability of shares causing the stock price to potentially go exponential. The classic short squeeze is a hugh spike in price where it can double, triple in the matter of weeks or months then after shorts covering is exhausted you would normally would see a substantial pull back of 1/3 or more before the stock settles down.

Right now we are just seeing a mild embrace where the shorts are feeling some pressure. For the full potential energy to be released we would have to see Tesla approach then breaking all time highs which is distinct possibility in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2017. Then you will get to see the real fireworks of a true short squeeze which for Tesla is more then $48 per share in my opinion.

Am I doing this correctly? Also, I assume this shouldn't be a direct extrapolation.

But with 35,389,874 shares held short, a little under 161mm shares in circulation, the share price is being depressed by a little over $48 per share. Is this right?
 
Am I doing this correctly? Also, I assume this shouldn't be a direct extrapolation.

But with 35,389,874 shares held short, a little under 161mm shares in circulation, the share price is being depressed by a little over $48 per share. Is this right?
I don't think that's an economically valid calculation. If nothing else changed, and all the shorts just chose to cover over a long period (say a month or two), I don't think that would drive the stock price up that far. On the other hand, if they all had to cover in a hurry, the increase could easily be much greater.
 
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I'm talking about this article:

From the article, which Pacific Crest talked with Jeff Evanson, apparently Evanson said that Model X production is still “somewhat inconsistent.”

Any slow down in Model X production from expected allotment would have a negative impact on gross margin. Depending on the snafu level, it can have a small or a big impact. In Q2, it looks like the Model X gross margin was likely well below the discounted Model S 60's by a significant margin. The improvements on the Model X production likely had the highest impact on the upward movement of gross margin in Q3. Just getting production rate up usually means better margins as long as they aren't expediting (overtime labor, flying in parts, etc.).
So we might be able to get a ballpark idea of the severity of the current situation by the numbers next week?

When they hit their goal of 50/50 MS-MX we'll know that they've finally nailed it.
 
Well, there is a serious lack of cheerleading on this board.

YAY 219!!! Above the 200MA, first time since August!

I am officially financially ahead of when I correctly guessed the Q3 would be a knockout and somehow lost money on it. :mad::rolleyes:

YAY! Hey, me too! I seriously thought I would have to wait until January to say that.

The best part was I got to load up on 2019 LEAPs below $200. Thanks shorts/weak longs!
 
Well, there is a serious lack of cheerleading on this board.

YAY 219!!! Above the 200MA, first time since August!

I am officially financially ahead of when I correctly guessed the Q3 would be a knockout and somehow lost money on it. :mad::rolleyes:
Me too, up by 20% finally. Still holding strong Jan 2018 calls 100%. Where is Trendtrader? I hope you still holding your calls.
 
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