Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[jhm]

Continuing the short discussions.

-Don't the shorts get squeezed due to margin calls? Don't they have to keep a certain amount of cash in their account to cover buying the shares so they cannot hold on indefinitly if the shares continue to rise?

-How do the additional dividends (ok not Tesla) get paid for a the case where 2 long shares have been created by the 1 short transaction? (still have trouble understanding how there really could be additional shares out standing). What about shareholder votes etc. Both the longs think they own the same shares?

I believe that is correct. A broker is not going to let itself be caught holding the bag. Their going to make sure there is enough collateral in the margin account.

I'm pretty sure shorts have to pay dividends. It's an added cost that makes shorting dividend paying stock less attractive.

 

[NJ Plugin]

I want to ask here what people predict the price action will be after March 31 if Tesla ends up showing renderings and releasing specs of the Model 3 and not an actual prototype.

Reason I'm thinking about this is that I went by the Tesla store at Stanford Mall today to ask about the reservation process, and the answer I got was a little worrisome in my mind. The sales rep said the first reservations would be taken at opening time, which is 10am at this location. When I asked about whether there would be a live broadcast of the unveiling, the rep said he doesn't know yet. He said it could be that they just release the information about Model 3 and not show a prototype. He also said the online reservations could follow the next day, or, a week later, he doesn't know yet. And when I asked will there be people camping out in front of the store, he said "I hope not, we don't want to have Apple like situations". Hmm, what's going on with this guy... is he trying to lower expectations, or he is just not sure what to say. Anyone else received a similar message at a store when asking for details?

Sounds to me like the person you spoke to has no idea what is happening. It is very common that Corporate Tesla tells the store staff very little, and than many staff learn more by reading TMC and/or from customers telling them.

I am sure they will know some more details closer to March 31st we get.

 

[chickensevil]

Now we're cooking with an electric induction range!!!

With EU vins starting to get issued I think they might finally do what they said they would. Massive deliveries in Q2. This was what I think everyone was expecting to happen in Dec... Shame it didn't work out that way. At the very least they haven't trended worse on timing than they did with the Model S so we haven't regressed any. I would just really like to not have to add in "Elon time" to every single thing the company says... I would have had a lot less heart ache if I had planned for two quarters of missing the mark only to finally see it pull through.

Model X reveal end of 2014, did I say end, what I meant was Spri-i-i-ummer. Yes Definitely the end of summer by the loosest definition of summer possible.

But don't worry guys, cash flow positive in Q4. Wait, no that's not right, divide by 20... Carry the 1... I meant to say Q1. And by Q1 we really are counting from Zero, which makes 1 a two, so yeah, Q2... The absolute end of it.

And those Model X deliveries, yeah we gave you 6 cars as promised, but don't worry we will ramp twice as fast as the Model S. So like December there will tons of them going out the door. But when I say December, I really mean that in the same way that Christians say Jesus was born on the 25... More as a metaphor... So playing on that metaphor it will actually happen in the Spring, really the end of spring, awe who am I kidding, early summer.

 

[hobbes]

Bad news from China again, exports 20% for Feb yoy: China exports shrink 20%, deepening worries over slowing growth - Mar. 8, 2016

 

[jhm]

Bad news from China again, exports 20% for Feb yoy: China exports shrink 20%, deepening worries over slowing growth - Mar. 8, 2016

Happy Chinese New Year!

 

[Hogfighter]

With EU vins starting to get issued I think they might finally do what they said they would. Massive deliveries in Q2. This was what I think everyone was expecting to happen in Dec... Shame it didn't work out that way. At the very least they haven't trended worse on timing than they did with the Model S so we haven't regressed any. I would just really like to not have to add in "Elon time" to every single thing the company says... I would have had a lot less heart ache if I had planned for two quarters of missing the mark only to finally see it pull through.

Model X reveal end of 2014, did I say end, what I meant was Spri-i-i-ummer. Yes Definitely the end of summer by the loosest definition of summer possible.

But don't worry guys, cash flow positive in Q4. Wait, no that's not right, divide by 20... Carry the 1... I meant to say Q1. And by Q1 we really are counting from Zero, which makes 1 a two, so yeah, Q2... The absolute end of it.

And those Model X deliveries, yeah we gave you 6 cars as promised, but don't worry we will ramp twice as fast as the Model S. So like December there will tons of them going out the door. But when I say December, I really mean that in the same way that Christians say Jesus was born on the 25... More as a metaphor... So playing on that metaphor it will actually happen in the Spring, really the end of spring, awe who am I kidding, early summer.

Well said. The X delivery schedule does dramatically affect free cash flow however, so it follows that with X delays that FCF would be pushed back as well. Let's just hope they've got this whole thing figured out and can finally ramp up production. It's not rocket science, after all.....

 

[chickensevil]

Well said. The X delivery schedule does dramatically affect free cash flow however, so it follows that with X delays that FCF would be pushed back as well. Let's just hope they've got this whole thing figured out and can finally ramp up production. It's not rocket science, after all.....

Yeah, I do realize and appreciate that all of the above is tied ultimately to the same thing, which is why all of them kept getting time shifted by the same amount. There have been other cases though where if expectations we set more conservatively from what the company said vs how long it took for that to actually happen, things might have gone more smoothly for me.

On a short term note, I have dumped out of my very green calls for the time being until this china news blows over, since I'm not getting sucked into another negative macro headwind. It is great how nice TSLA (and SCTY for that matter) is holding up in the midst of this negative macro that is dragging the indexes down today. I'll look to reenter before the end of the week, most likely, but I am being a bit more cautious these days on my options since I keep making the mistake of holding on to them for too long.

 

[MitchJi]

Now, going to dive into bunch of bearish articles on SA, in a search of at least one useful piece of info - yes, I'm still 300% invested in TSLA and don't want to be blindsided. Swimming SA is like swimming in a pool of sh..., looking for diamond, and most often not finding anything - wish me luck

If you believe EM and JB both your speculation and the seeking fud article are incorrect. Watching videos of EM and JB and listening to conference calls for information until you are very well informed would probably be a wiser use of your time.

 

[BobSk]

If you believe EM and JB both your speculation and the seeking fud article are incorrect. Watching videos of EM and JB and listening to conference calls for information until you are very well informed would probably be a wiser use of your time.

Totally agree with Mitch.

 

[DrJohnM]

I believe that is correct. A broker is not going to let itself be caught holding the bag. Their going to make sure there is enough collateral in the margin account.

I'm pretty sure shorts have to pay dividends. It's an added cost that makes shorting dividend paying stock less attractive.

The title of the security transfers to the borrower so they become the full legal owner and receive voting rights and any dividend. Typically, the dividend is payed back to the lender.

Costs to the borrower:

Option: A cash collateral is paid to the lender at a daily mark to market basis. The collateral is returned to the borrower when the securities are returned. The lender makes money on the collateral that they are given and may return some of that profit (as a rebate) to the borrower.

Option: Borrower pays interest on the value of the security borrowed.

 

[theschnell]

The title of the security transfers to the borrower so they become the full legal owner and receive voting rights and any dividend. Typically, the dividend is payed back to the lender.

Costs to the borrower:

Option: A cash collateral is paid to the lender at a daily mark to market basis. The collateral is returned to the borrower when the securities are returned. The lender makes money on the collateral that they are given and may return some of that profit (as a rebate) to the borrower.

Option: Borrower pays interest on the value of the security borrowed.

The Borrower gets voting rights? I assume you mean that the person the borrower sold to gets the voting rights since they don't know they've bought a shorted share. That makes perfect sense actually, so as to not double the number of votes for every share shorted.

 

[tray loader]

Well said. The X delivery schedule does dramatically affect free cash flow however, so it follows that with X delays that FCF would be pushed back as well. Let's just hope they've got this whole thing figured out and can finally ramp up production. It's not rocket science, after all.....

Building the X IS rocket science, since IMHO they discovered in the process (since 2012!) that when You split a gullwing door by two, you end up in a maze.
One hinge alone is a tremendous task getting the panel gaps and the fit on the opposite side correct.
The still present huge gaps on the S/X at the trunk speak for themselves.

Now You begin to introduce a SECOND hinge within this warfield of trim, and the problem is nearly unmanageable.

That´s what they basically fought since the prototype stage.Now worsened with an over temperature sensitive sensor which locks up in hot sun.

 

[aznt1217]

Building the X IS rocket science, since IMHO they discovered in the process (since 2012!) that when You split a gullwing door by two, you end up in a maze.
One hinge alone is a tremendous task getting the panel gaps and the fit on the opposite side correct.
The still present huge gaps on the S/X at the trunk speak for themselves.

Now You begin to introduce a SECOND hinge within this warfield of trim, and the problem is nearly unmanageable.

That´s what they basically fought since the prototype stage.Now worsened with an over temperature sensitive sensor which locks up in hot sun.

If only we had a rocket scientist in the company...

 

[FredTMC]

If only we had a rocket scientist in the company...

whats this temperature sensor lock-up issue?

 

[aznt1217]

whats this temperature sensor lock-up issue?

honestly, I have no idea but I was just feeding the troll.

 

[uselesslogin]

whats this temperature sensor lock-up issue?

The original sensors got hot and then would be convinced there was an obstacle and the door wouldn't open. I want to say it was adhesive tbh but everything we hear on that is all hearsay anyway. But the hearsay also says this issue has been resolved.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any positive news out?

 

[dc_h]

VIN's in the 4xxx range are out. Production inference is close to 500 a week, now or expected at that rate by end of month. If Sig's are mostly done and they really deliver to plan in California, X deliveries will be over 2000 and maybe 3000 in Q1. S deliveries appear to be speeding up for end of quarter as well. Would like to see some informed estimates of Model S deliveries, but 14,000 seems reasonable.

Will total deliveries of 16,000 be a win? Would 17,000 be a blowout?

Any positive news out?

 

[BobSk]

I understand this thread is for short-term price movement. Sometimes long-term and fundamental view can help me make short-term decisions. My view is: all cars will become electric. Tesla will remain the leader in this field and the energy storage field. Tesla's market cap will reach where Google or Apple is today. So when I see a good entry point, I just add more shares.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Was does this technical pattern indicate? MACD says not overbought whole RSI technically indicates short term overbought. My take is the selling was prompted by nonsense, meaning the rally is really just a return to the correct price before Model 3 unveil. Anyone have any other views?

The MACD formed a perfect inverse head and shoulders. Does this usually mean anything?