larmor
Active Member
I totally agree, with you. It is a false correlation, and is an illustration of short term movements have no basis on financials, sales, revenues of a company.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Give it to the Saudis to poop on the rally.
I think they are trying to punish the Western world and they believe they are relevant enough to do it.
I think they are trying to punish the Western world and they believe they are relevant enough to do it.
Did we seriously think that the various major oil producers were really going to get together and agree on anything right now? Especially Iran? Short term, oil was probably rising too fast.
We are in middling period right now. We just had a major run up. The ECB moves likely will cause further problems with FX for many American exporting companies. The FOMC meeting is next week and there's always uncertainty surrounding that. Plus, Model 3 reveal is still a little while from now and we don't have unmistakable clear signs of Model X or Model S ramping to levels necessary to meat guidance.
Given all of that, I'm surprised we're still over $200. That's actually really, really strong. Our pull backs are modest compared to the surges. If we get a big pull back, I think people pile in ahead of Model 3 launch and the likely massive jams of Model 3 reservations.
Personally, I'd cheer if we drop to $180, and I'd cheer if we move to $230. I'd rather us drop to $180 in the short term than head to $230. I'm thinking people have bet big in both directions and the market will punish them all by staying in this middling range on options expiration dates - max pain in an absence of news will play into sentiment for the next 2 weeks but amongst a melt up towards Model 3 launch/Q1 numbers.
We are in middling period right now. We just had a major run up. The ECB moves likely will cause further problems with FX for many American exporting companies. The FOMC meeting is next week and there's always uncertainty surrounding that. Plus, Model 3 reveal is still a little while from now and we don't have unmistakable clear signs of Model X or Model S ramping to levels necessary to meat guidance.
Given all of that, I'm surprised we're still over $200. That's actually really, really strong. Our pull backs are modest compared to the surges. If we get a big pull back, I think people pile in ahead of Model 3 launch and the likely massive jams of Model 3 reservations.
Personally, I'd cheer if we drop to $180, and I'd cheer if we move to $230. I'd rather us drop to $180 in the short term than head to $230. I'm thinking people have bet big in both directions and the market will punish them all by staying in this middling range on options expiration dates - max pain in an absence of news will play into sentiment for the next 2 weeks but amongst a melt up towards Model 3 launch/Q1 numbers.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
So far, my sense of timing was exquisite. I'll cherish this as my memorable contribution to amateur hour.
Even if agreement is reached where is the guarantee that it will hold? Especially when Russia is involved. Last time they reached an agreement they did not feel obliged to stick to it...
jhm
Well-Known Member
Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut | OilPrice.com
This article is helpful. Actions speak louder than words. Saudi Arabia is drilling like there's no tomorrow. They have no intention of backing off. This continues to be a price war. Only losers cut production.
Well, I think they also sense they have limited time to do it. Could be right.
Also, hurting arch enemies Iran and Russia for not subscribing to the One True Worship unconditionally. While they can.
My cynical take, for whatever it's worth.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO this is impossible to predict until we know more about the actual M3 and the event. Maybe EM is planning to announce off-the-hook store reservations at the event.
If the M3 meets my expectations (it will be compelling) the SP will continue to go up after the reveal.
I expect a70kWh pack, large WS, with Super Charging and AP included in the basic price. That might be enough to keep the SP up.
OTOH I don't think a 55kWh pack without SC and AP will do it.
I highly doubt a base battery of 70 kWh, 60 songs right from my perspective. I honestly don't think the size matters as much as the rated mileage. If they said 50 kWh but 250 miles real world range, no one would care that the battery was "small." That example is intentionally convoluted obviously.
In any case I tend to agree, it will be compelling, reservation numbers will be great, stock will be flat to up. Can't wait.
Wow, that's pretty high expectations.
I'm thinking 55 kWh pack, basic crash avoidance AP features and Supercharging is extra and I think most people would be ok with that. I think the cost of the extras matters a lot and therefore the competitiveness of a $40k or $50k Model 3 matters far more than what comes with the base $35k model. Option up a Mercedes CLA or Audi A4, most of which have sticker prices right in the $40-45k range. Very few of those are sold at the base price with no options. Throw in a dash of federal and state incentives, account discounts on non-Tesla's, and I don't think the Model 3 needs the kitchen sink thrown in at $35k.
As a go player myself (about 5 kyu, not very good or experienced) I can assure you that you are incorrect about focusing on the interface and edges. Indeed, this kind of focus will definitely weaken a player. Effects of moves can be very subtle and long distance, and strategy often involves playing in the middle of nowhere.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Be ok, needs to include? Agree, compelling no.
JB recently said that people will be surprised by the features that they will be able to include in the M3.
Large windshield, AP and super charger access seem pretty likely candidates and IMO adding in a 70 kWh base pack would make a compelling package unless the car is a dog.
I understand how people are disagreeing on specifics but I don't understand why everyone thinks that Tesla and Elon are going to shoot for the minimum acceptable car. That's in conflict with their mission statement, and goes against everything they have done in the past. They will be able to make a ton on AWD, P and L variants and bigger packs.
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Gerardf
Active Member
On CNBC Jon Najarian said he noticed unusual activity in TSLA April 230 call options today, which he bought and will probably hold for about two weeks: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000500570
I used to interview Jon on my Chicago based financial news TV show when he was a trader at the CBOE. He's a knowledgeable trader, and seemed to me to be a good man. He conducted a couple of mock trading sessions on the floor of the CBOE in which I participated.
I used to interview Jon on my Chicago based financial news TV show when he was a trader at the CBOE. He's a knowledgeable trader, and seemed to me to be a good man. He conducted a couple of mock trading sessions on the floor of the CBOE in which I participated.
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dreamingof3
Member
Back to short interest.....
Evan Niu brought this up today and it was unlike me to check the recent number. Perusing this thread I didn't see much/any discussion on the new short interest number.
Short interest again increased dramatically in the 17 day period ending February 29 by 2,537,555 shares
Now short interest has risen from 23 million shares in June to 34 million shares.
While I can't agree with the logic in shorting at these prices I have a few observations.
1. Buying pressure has been so intense that even with fake selling by shorts - those who don't really own the stock, the stock still has managed to climb. Can you imagine what is going to transpire when the bulls finally gain complete control over these shares? We have already mentioned that shorts have diluted the long ownership base by 34 million shares. We now have around 160 million shares held LONG.
2. Longs should now be astute about lending their shares. It's becoming puzzling to me how shorts can continually find new shares to borrow. I'm pretty sure at this point we shouldn't be helping shorts at all. This is all out war, and they have fired many shots trying to hold Tesla down.
3. Premarket high today was 215 per share. We had a dramatic reversal lower but are now off of the day's low. It wouldn't surprise me if shorts were leaning on this on the heels of oil price weakness.
4. Set those limit sell orders in margin accounts to prevent new lending of shares.
5. I'm pulling up a chair and ready to pop some popcorn in anticipation of how this is going to play out. This push and pull of longs vs. shorts and the pure hatred of Tesla has this ready to explode. Can longs generate enough firepower and strong holders to get this to a breaking point of pain for short holders? One price point we have mentioned is $220, but I believe $249 is the price that will start to set off a short squeeze. The price represents a lot of resistance on the 1 year chart. If we can avoid the dreaded "macro-headwinds" we may be able to touch that price on the heels of an impressive 3 showing.
Please make them pay Elon- PLEASE!
Evan Niu brought this up today and it was unlike me to check the recent number. Perusing this thread I didn't see much/any discussion on the new short interest number.
Short interest again increased dramatically in the 17 day period ending February 29 by 2,537,555 shares
Now short interest has risen from 23 million shares in June to 34 million shares.
While I can't agree with the logic in shorting at these prices I have a few observations.
1. Buying pressure has been so intense that even with fake selling by shorts - those who don't really own the stock, the stock still has managed to climb. Can you imagine what is going to transpire when the bulls finally gain complete control over these shares? We have already mentioned that shorts have diluted the long ownership base by 34 million shares. We now have around 160 million shares held LONG.
2. Longs should now be astute about lending their shares. It's becoming puzzling to me how shorts can continually find new shares to borrow. I'm pretty sure at this point we shouldn't be helping shorts at all. This is all out war, and they have fired many shots trying to hold Tesla down.
3. Premarket high today was 215 per share. We had a dramatic reversal lower but are now off of the day's low. It wouldn't surprise me if shorts were leaning on this on the heels of oil price weakness.
4. Set those limit sell orders in margin accounts to prevent new lending of shares.
5. I'm pulling up a chair and ready to pop some popcorn in anticipation of how this is going to play out. This push and pull of longs vs. shorts and the pure hatred of Tesla has this ready to explode. Can longs generate enough firepower and strong holders to get this to a breaking point of pain for short holders? One price point we have mentioned is $220, but I believe $249 is the price that will start to set off a short squeeze. The price represents a lot of resistance on the 1 year chart. If we can avoid the dreaded "macro-headwinds" we may be able to touch that price on the heels of an impressive 3 showing.
Please make them pay Elon- PLEASE!
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