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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
He went to a hospital in Irvine and got a band-aid and some pain killers so now he's doing much better. In look for a better term my guess is TSLA won't "crash", nor "free fall" or as they say "go bust".
Can anyone think of a car that had lines of people waiting outside dealerships to pre-order? I can imagine several Tesla stores with a line of over 1,000 people before they open in California on March 31st. The pictures and news articles that would result from I-phone type lines at the stores could trigger a short squeeze. The heads of all the Bears who think there is no difference between a Chevy Bolt and a Model 3 will explode simultaneously. I think we will be in the 240 range by March 30th, before the madness starts. I'm very excited....
Johan...You successfully predicted the drop from 230 to 180 (ok it went to 140). What is prediction for PT on March 31 and April 5th?
Mine: March 31st:$235
April 5th $235...after dip it rebounds
Obviously WAGs
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Ah you give too much credit: my "prediction" was a knee jerk reaction to thre Norway fire, which wasn't what caused the drop.
Forward looking statement: I'm getting more and more certain we'll see a further rise toward March 31st but a lower price after than before the unveiling. Don't ask me about amplitudes, I'll only predict directions. You see the amplitude is hard because if Tesla achieve "critical mass" in the build up to Model 3 the amplitudes could be huge. But at the end of the day I think it'll be once again "Buy the rumor sell the news".
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A guy over on seeking alpha mentioned today that he has a naked call expiring march24 and that there are no shares available to borrow to keep the position open and so he will have to buy 500 shares tomorrow if that remains the case. Not totally up on the specifics of that to be honest
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
It's true, but naked call writing is an uncommon strategy to leverage yourself since it exposes you to a lot of risk; namely the above mentioned one. So most calls are sold by stock holder who have stock that can get called away. There are safer ways to go short: i.e. buy a put.
Naked Call Writing: A Risky Options Strategy | Investopedia
Worth keeping in mind that the market reaction to the Model 3 will be dictated by the reaction of the bears, not the bulls. Specifically the shorts that out number the volatile longs by about 8:1.
In this regard I am coming to the view that the bears have shot themselves in both feet thanks to the GM Bolt effectively setting the bar in the minds of Tesla denialists of what can be expected from a $35K car - and setting that bar at about ankle height to the Model 3. The unveil I suspect will induce panic covering alongside an influx of AAPL shareholders reminded of iPhone lines around Apple Stores. I don't think we will get a sell on the news because this time the majority of the market does not know what the news is.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Correct. My predictions for a "sell on the news" is it will happen but be short lived, like in could blow over in a week or within the first 15 minutes of trading.
TSLA settled a little before its close of 226.38 and then half an hour into the after-hours trading it jumped up to 228. Yes, this is a bit unusual for after-hours trading, as we typically see only small changes throughout the evening hours, particularly on days where the stock looked pretty settled at a price point before close. Trading after hours is typically pretty flat, whereas before-opening trading can be quite volatile.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Yes, but will it?
On the one hand, we have the previous drops after major announcements (P90D, ModelX reveal, etc.), plus the anticipated herd behaviour of selling the news because it's the thing to do. On the other hand, we have possible news stories about crowds punching each other silly in front of Tesla stores to be the first to put down $1000 on the Model 3. Brother against sister, husband against wife, parent against child, interviewed live by Phil LeBeau!
Back on the first hand, the previous announcements didn't really bring any new information; they were anti-climactic for the market at large. This time, not much is known about the new car. So if they have some surprise up their sleeve and exceed expectations in any way (longer-than-expected range, AP standard, stunning looks, etc), the stock will rocket. If not, it will drop first, then rocket because of the 1 billion reservations crashing their servers.
So the question will be how many deliveries they announce on the 4th for Q1. If there's euphoria after the Model 3 unveiling, those numbers would have to be really bad to cause a longer-lasting dip.
Ahhh! I know I'm only thinking out loud and not saying anything new, I just want to learn everyone else's estimation of the probabilities in play.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
You're spont on correct. My prediction was shorter term i.e. I believe more in your second more long term reason for a rise in stock price: reservations, but less in your very short term more message/media/suprise information driven rise - the market is slow to understand Tesla and what really moves the stock are undisputable facts and numbers (point in case: actual reservations) rather than things that require an understanding of what something more abstract means to Tesla (like design, concepts such as Supercharging, techonological improvements and leaps etc.)
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
That correlation is very weak, if it was a strong correlation it would be easily tradeable and would be easily found.
The reveal is after the after-market on the 31st. Before the pre market starts on April 1, Musk might tweet the number of preorders. I can imagine a number that would surprise so many folks that there would be an immediate spike. No dip to buy. Anyone waiting until after the reveal could miss a big opportunity.
Krugerrand
Meow
Wrong question, imo. The question we want asked (and answered if it's the *right* answer) is the one that happened on that other April Fool's Day.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Inclined to speculate along the same lines but options-wise we may well be looking at a momentary sell off of after-hours and pre-market gains with no actual dip from the previous trading close.
I would rather second guess on trading off any pre-anouncement dip. There is usually a de-risking sell-off or a bear-attack immediately prior to significant news. I think that this is more reliable assuming it makes sense that the unveil is basically shock and awe to a bear contingent that have talked eachother into expecting another econobox.
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