Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[The Blue Owl]

Did Elon not tweet cash flow positive on March 31st/April 1st 2013 that set the stock off? Maybe I'm remembering it wrong...getting old and the memory isn't what it used to be. The point being that a 'cash is king' tweet on April 1st (because they've said for the last two ERs that they're aiming for that) would be a far greater catalyst than 'we delivered X thousands of cars'.

Okay, that took all the fun out of my cryptic, suppose to be clever, post.

Damn! Before I broke down and begged for mercy, I actually looked up the prices for March-April 2013, because I figured that was what you alluded to. It was $38.23 on March 31st, and $42.36 on April 1st. So I'm thinking, "really, that's it? it just went up 4 bucks, big deal. I must be mis-remembering it". Not realizing, of course, that $4 was more than %10.

Those were the days.

 

[geneclean55]

I believe the tweet in question is this one:
Elon Musk on Twitter

I get the sense that Musk doesn't offer as many 'juicy' tweets as he used to?

 

[Hogfighter]

Your over-engineered, comment implies it was a mistake. Maybe yes, or maybe not, but those claims are premature, like calling a 7 game playoff series based on the first game of the series.

Your estimate is low as previously pointed out, and it should include MS and MX sales for 2018 (as long as the subsidies are good they will apply to all vehicles sold).

As an investor, it's safe to say that a vehicle that is 2 years late to production due to design complexities, that burned millions of dollars in associated costs, and pushed back FCF positive at least 6 months, was over-engineered.

 

[ggr]

Rumour is he's still around, somewhere. MY guess is the combination of the new forum format, yet One More Borealis Medical Fright (he's okay now), the selling of one Land Cruiser (YAY!) and the buying & tweaking of yet another (YAY!YAY!YAY!), has meant that the only "moderating" he's been able to accomplish has been to ensure fireworks have been kept to a minimum.

I worry about people who refer to themselves in the third person. ;-)

 

[ggr]

I am not aware of any guarantee we will hear reservation numbers. We just assume they will be announced at some point.

I can't believe all those employees you talked to had no interest in making a reservation. How do you work for Tesla and have no interest in the latest and most affordable product? Makes no sense to me...Unless they are already have or are planning on getting S or X...

When I was at the San Diego service center the other day, at least 3 of the 5 or so empoyees I spoke to were going to reserve a 3. The news about employee reservations had just come out an hour or so before.

 

[mejojo]

On a separate note I was at the Dallas SC today. I asked half a dozen employees if they were reserving a Model 3. One said they were debating, the others were a categorical no.

I don't think we can completely discount that this was in the state of Texas.

 

[McMuggets]

After a brief hiatus I come back and see that being steadfast in purchasing shares on the cheap in the face of steep drops has worked nicely! Julian, do you think your $400 price prediction for July 2016 could still hold true? (correct me if I am wrong on the price target number)

 

[mejojo]

After a brief hiatus I come back and see that being steadfast in purchasing shares on the cheap in the face of steep drops has worked nicely! Julian, do you think your $400 price prediction for July 2016 could still hold true? (correct me if I am wrong on the price target number)

I believe he warranted that AmpedRealtor would be "in the green" by May, else Julian would eat his unwashed socks, and supply the video.

What I don't remember is what SP would make AR green. I have a feeling it was around 240.

 

[Johan]

I believe he warranted that AmpedRealtor would be "in the green" by May, else Julian would eat his unwashed socks, and supply the video.

What I don't remember is what SP would make AR green. I have a feeling it was around 240.

If memory serves me right he predicted $350 by July, +/- 1 month and +/- 10%. But in one recent post it would seem he kind of took it back saying maybe the market won't understand the importance of the Model 3 that quickly.

(Between those posts he said he felt he had more or less figured out the game of Go after reading the rules and looking at a board for 2 minutes, so take whatever he says with a pound-sized grain of salt.)

 

[Papafox]

Online orders don't start till April Fools Day, after the reveal. Online could be bigger than "in store". Good numbers on deliveries will follow a couple of days later.

What you say used to be true, but when Tesla sent out emails to all vehicle owners, it changed the start time of the online orders. Here's an excerpt from the announcement that was sent to Tesla owners a few days ago:

Model 3 reservations will open in Tesla stores on March 31 at 10am PST, as well as online immediately when the event (which will also be accessible via a live stream) begins.

 

[Papafox]

Here's a graphic of today's after-hours trading. I was impressed with the nearly-two-dollar jump after hours. This seldom happens. I see it as a bullish sign.

 

[dakh]

(Between those posts he said he felt he had more or less figured out the game of Go after reading the rules and looking at a board for 2 minutes, so take whatever he says with a pound-sized grain of salt.)

That's a pound of pepper right here!

 

[dakh]

Now that I have had the time to actually pay enough attention to options to somewhat manage them again, I have been making good use of my OCO bracketing with them. I'll buy some options immediately bracket them with a 100-300% return (depending on where I am looking) and a 30-50% loss. As it moves in the gains side I move up my bottom to continue to hold whatever "loss" I am willing to stomach. So each day when we close I move the bottoms up. If I close up say 10%, and my "loss limit" was 30%, then I would move it up to a negative 20%. If it moves up to plus 50% then I move up the loss to plus 20% (maintaining the 30% separation.

Thanks for sharing, that's pretty useful to know such things are out there for newbs like me. Does this work well at any strike price/expiration or you have to only use "popular" combinations with lots of active trading?

 

[mmd]

What are people expecting for Q1 delivery? Will a delivery miss derail the rally?
Here is the latest CVRP status updated Mar 7th. 587 in January, 196 in February. Both lower than 2015 yoy.
CVRP Rebate Statistics

I was also hoping to hear back from anticitizen on Model X prep time, to figure out if a huge delivery is practically possible in March. Model 3 reservation preparation seems to add extra headache this quarter end.

 

[dakh]

I first thought that's just the effect of income caps on rebates but that's only starting from March 29.

So either they're shipping a lot abroad to position for the quarter end more aggressively this time or there indeed is a buying opport...err, a problem.

 

[Papafox]

What are people expecting for Q1 delivery? Will a delivery miss derail the rally?
Here is the latest CVRP status updated Mar 7th. 587 in January, 196 in February. Both lower than 2015 yoy.
CVRP Rebate Statistics

I was also hoping to hear back from anticitizen on Model X prep time, to figure out if a huge delivery is practically possible in March. Model 3 reservation preparation seems to add extra headache this quarter end.

We know from wait times for vehicles that there's enough backlog to keep the factory humming at full speed for Model S and we know that a great many Model X vehicles are being scheduled for March deliveries in California. Although the graph is interesting, it tells us that the cars have been going outside California for the most part in January and February, but it really tells us nothing about the factory's production numbers for Q1.

 

[schonelucht]

What are people expecting for Q1 delivery? Will a delivery miss derail the rally?
Here is the latest CVRP status updated Mar 7th. 587 in January, 196 in February. Both lower than 2015 yoy.
CVRP Rebate Statistics

Tesla is extremely backloading the quarters again and low deliveries for Jan and Feb in California would figure right in that pattern. I do expect a European blowout delivery in March, for what it is worth.

 

[schonelucht]

It's not yet picked up by the broader media but it likely will so reporting here since a short term reaction is possible (but not necessary) : the Norway supercharger fire investigation has concluded and apparently it's due to an fault in the car itself, most likely the HVJB although the exact cause is not (yet) clear. Tesla will push out an OTA software update as a precaution.

 

[jhm]

Fire sparks concerns over lack of standards on battery storage

There has been a thermal run away event with a lithium ion home battery in Australia. Not a Tesla Powerwall, but this could raise fire concerns for all home battery makers.

 

[Julian Cox]

As an investor, it's safe to say that a vehicle that is 2 years late to production due to design complexities, that burned millions of dollars in associated costs, and pushed back FCF positive at least 6 months, was over-engineered.

The term "Over Engineered" - It does not sit right with me. Sets off my BS detector.

I understand what you are trying to say but as and investor and a possible customer for the X, I would not have been happier with an under-engineered Model X. Something passable to help make sales and cash flow figures sooner. I can see a great deal of merit in pushing the limits on an ancillary Gen 2 vehicle. Every difficulty they encountered with Model X makes me happier that the main event, Model 3, won't face that same difficulty.

I think the main problem with the "Over Engineered" comment is the presumption that what they were trying to achieve was early FCF and additional sales and they screwed up by sticking to their principles to deliver a ground-breaking car. I just think they stuck to their principles. There are too many unprincipled car makers out there and as an investor I don't ever want Tesla to stoop to that level and become an also-ran.