Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dc_h]

It's true, but naked call writing is an uncommon strategy to leverage yourself since it exposes you to a lot of risk; namely the above mentioned one. So most calls are sold by stock holder who have stock that can get called away. There are safer ways to go short: i.e. buy a put.

Naked Call Writing: A Risky Options Strategy | Investopedia

Perhaps this is our aftermarket bump? If there is one person reporting they need to cover naked calls, their could be more. If we bounce over 230 in the morning, will we start getting short covering and buying pressure like we saw selling pressure when we hit 180 on the way down?

 

[Dwdnjck]

Online orders don't start till April Fools Day, after the reveal. Online could be bigger than "in store". Good numbers on deliveries will follow a couple of days later.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Wrong question, imo. The question we want asked (and answered if it's the *right* answer) is the one that happened on that other April Fool's Day.

Not getting the reference. Lifeline?

 

[jhm]

Tesla Bears Fear This Metric | OilPrice.com

This is surprising. Oilprice.com actually has an article favorable to Tesla.

More...
These articles are primarily aimed at traditional energy investors. The utility battery market is something they can wrap their heads around. It looks to have explosive growth potential. The only catch is that Tesla is the closest thing to a pure play in this market.

Say ther, how'd you like to invest in your own gigafactory? It's like an oil field that will play out 10 billion barrels of oil over 25 years. What'd that be worth to ya?

 

[Wenche]

Maybe TSLA will gap up to 228 at the opening tomorrow.

There has been sold 81k shares aftermarket, and for the last 3 hours no one below 228.

From my IB news flow:
Stifel maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Buy and target $325
Stifel maintained Tesla Motors (TSLA) coverage with Buy and target $325
Issuance Date: 2016-03-17


Copyright 2016 StreetInsider

 

[jhm]

Might have been wiser to have waited a couple of weeks?

I think that they will minimize cannibalization by making substantial MS-MX (MS might be more than pack, MX pack) upgrades.

I have no regrets. I was curious about battery upgrade, but we only needed a 70D anyway. Moreover, the car is itself an anniversary gift to my wife as we celebrate 25 years next week.

So life moves on and Tesla products will keep getting better.

 

[MikeC]

I don't anticipate any significant selling on the news because of delivery numbers being released on April 2 or 3. What happens April 4th, i have no idea.

 

[Tenable]

I don't anticipate any significant selling on the news because of delivery numbers being released on April 2 or 3. What happens April 4th, i have no idea.

Is there information somewhere stating that we will definitely get reservation numbers immediately following online reservations going live?

On a separate note I was at the Dallas SC today. I asked half a dozen employees if they were reserving a Model 3. One said they were debating, the others were a categorical no. Small sample size obviously and not indicative of those in manufacturing.. however, it leads me to think there may be fewer employees in line than expected. Perhaps non owners who have been waiting for the 3 will take some solace in this.

 

[theschnell]

Is there information somewhere stating that we will definitely get reservation numbers immediately following online reservations going live?

On a separate note I was at the Dallas SC today. I asked half a dozen employees if they were reserving a Model 3. One said they were debating, the others were a categorical no. Small sample size obviously and not indicative of those in manufacturing.. however, it leads me to think there may be fewer employees in line than expected. Perhaps non owners who have been waiting for the 3 will take some solace in this.

I am not aware of any guarantee we will hear reservation numbers. We just assume they will be announced at some point.

I can't believe all those employees you talked to had no interest in making a reservation. How do you work for Tesla and have no interest in the latest and most affordable product? Makes no sense to me...Unless they are already have or are planning on getting S or X...

 

[MikeC]

Is there information somewhere stating that we will definitely get reservation numbers immediately following online reservations going live?

No - I was referring to Q1 delivery numbers which are reported within three days of the end of the quarter.

 

[eloder]

Is there information somewhere stating that we will definitely get reservation numbers immediately following online reservations going live?

On a separate note I was at the Dallas SC today. I asked half a dozen employees if they were reserving a Model 3. One said they were debating, the others were a categorical no. Small sample size obviously and not indicative of those in manufacturing.. however, it leads me to think there may be fewer employees in line than expected. Perhaps non owners who have been waiting for the 3 will take some solace in this.

I'm not expecting any big movement due to employee reservations. After all, a lot of the front-line store employees make pretty little (local store advertising in my area is $11-14 an hour starting for various store positions).

 

[Krugerrand]

Not getting the reference. Lifeline?

Wrong game, but because I like you..."My mandate from Elon is clear," said Wheeler, formerly vice president of finance at Google, during his first quarterly earnings call at Tesla. "Cash is king."

 

[chickensevil]

On the way down a few weeks ago, I sold all my stock when we reached $200. I then started to buy calls at various strikes and expiry dates (a mix of ITM/OTM and short-term/LEAPS -- more than half of the holdings are 2018 LEAPS) while TSLA kept creeping downwards. All the calls are now green.

Question: in this situation, and with the current available info and sentiment about Tesla, what do experienced traders think about holding everything through the Model 3 unveiling?

(@Johan: I just noticed your post now. I'm very curious about others. )

For what it's worth holding through any event appears to be a crap shoot. Half the time we went up and half the time down. It might depend on current price and sentiment on the price. I would say if 230 or less we have a decent chance of going up, 240 it could go either way. 250 or more strong chance we see an initial sell.

How we proceed after the event itself and the immediate movements will depend on the quarterly number release and any comments on the reservation numbers or evidence on how that is going.

 

[dakh]

I would rather second guess on trading off any pre-anouncement dip. There is usually a de-risking sell-off or a bear-attack immediately prior to significant news. I think that this is more reliable assuming it makes sense that the unveil is basically shock and awe to a bear contingent that have talked eachother into expecting another econobox.

We have to assume a certain level of sophistication in bears and stick with it. If they're oblivious than Model 3 release won't change much since they will simply revert to saying Tesla can't build the thing and will be 3 years late. If they're sophisticated enough they understand what Model 3 is/means and chose to short anyway, for a reason different than stated above.

 

[dakh]

For what it's worth holding through any event appears to be a crap shoot. Half the time we went up and half the time down. It might depend on current price and sentiment on the price. I would say if 230 or less we have a decent chance of going up, 240 it could go either way. 250 or more strong chance we see an initial sell.

How we proceed after the event itself and the immediate movements will depend on the quarterly number release and any comments on the reservation numbers or evidence on how that is going.

Personally my game plan is to hold on to longer term calls I got at 150-160 level until September-ish unless we clearly get a big squeeze. For short term calls I picked up last week, I'm on the verge of selling enough to break even on the rest if they expire worthless, and holding "the rest" till after reveal.

 

[chickensevil]

Personally my game plan is to hold on to longer term calls I got at 150-160 level until September-ish unless we clearly get a big squeeze. For short term calls I picked up last week, I'm on the verge of selling enough to break even on the rest if they expire worthless, and holding "the rest" till after reveal.

My long stuff is stock at the moment. My short stuff is some April options and some March 24 options. The March 24 is strictly on the basis of buy the rumor...

Now that I have had the time to actually pay enough attention to options to somewhat manage them again, I have been making good use of my OCO bracketing with them. I'll buy some options immediately bracket them with a 100-300% return (depending on where I am looking) and a 30-50% loss. As it moves in the gains side I move up my bottom to continue to hold whatever "loss" I am willing to stomach. So each day when we close I move the bottoms up. If I close up say 10%, and my "loss limit" was 30%, then I would move it up to a negative 20%. If it moves up to plus 50% then I move up the loss to plus 20% (maintaining the 30% separation.

This way if we get a sharp enough trend reversal I'll sell before something bad happens. In light of the constant ups we have been getting I keep selling at that top 100-300% level mostly from random surges in the day while I can't watch it. On the other hand I had an unfortunate sell off the other morning with that low open. But overall this is allowing me to lock in gains and be more calculated with my trading.

Anyway, I'll keep buying and selling calls up to the event and then go 100% cash. I would rather risk losing out on an initial pop (my shares will still get the pop) rather than have my shares go worthless. I'll ride the train a little late than get caught holding the bag... Have fallen for that one more than I wish I had.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Wrong game, but because I like you..."My mandate from Elon is clear," said Wheeler, formerly vice president of finance at Google, during his first quarterly earnings call at Tesla. "Cash is king."

Wrong question, wrong game... can a rhino do noth'n right?

I still don't get the April Fool's day thing, so maybe I'm the fool.

 

[doctoxics]

Interesting discussion of price trend around the Model 3 reveal in this thread. I am somewhat concerned that Tesla may not meet their guidance for Q1 due to slow ramp of Model X. We won't have guidance for Q2 until early May. If they miss Q1 deliveries we may see a sell-off in spite of any good news on Model 3. I hold leap call options and will just wait out any short-term bad news because I know there is a lot of good news coming in Q2 and Q3.

On another note, Panasonic has taken a beating in the Japanese stock market, even though their fundamentals remain sound. At some point, investers in Japan and elsewhere are going to see the connection between Tesla and Panasonic and that batteries for cars and energy storage is an unlimited market with accelerating growth. Not sure when that realization will happen, but it could happen at any time.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wrong question, wrong game... can a rhino do noth'n right?

I still don't get the April Fool's day thing, so maybe I'm the fool.

Did Elon not tweet cash flow positive on March 31st/April 1st 2013 that set the stock off? Maybe I'm remembering it wrong...getting old and the memory isn't what it used to be. The point being that a 'cash is king' tweet on April 1st (because they've said for the last two ERs that they're aiming for that) would be a far greater catalyst than 'we delivered X thousands of cars'.

Okay, that took all the fun out of my cryptic, suppose to be clever, post.

 

[uselesslogin]

Wrong question, wrong game... can a rhino do noth'n right?

I still don't get the April Fool's day thing, so maybe I'm the fool.

I believe the tweet in question is this one:
Elon Musk on Twitter