Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

You tesla fanboys are so blind that you are CLUELESS to macro trends. Go ahead and put me on block.. See you in the 170s.

See ya! (Don't wanna be ya)

 

[Julian Cox]

I'm on track with all this except Tesla owners lending their privately owned cars to be used as service vehicles. I for one would not want to do this. One of the privilegeS of owning your own car is being able to keep your thongs in it and not have other people doing stuff to your car. This kind of possessiveness is not going to go away and will form the essential core of private ownership. However, where this model works to the advantage of private ownership is that it creates a very strong secondary market for a car. For example, you can lease a car for a few years on very good terms and enjoy all the advantages of exclusive ownership, and after the lease the car goes into a service fleet which extracts all the residual value in short order. The more valuable a 3 year old Tesla is, the less it costs to lease or own a new one.

Regarding our debate yesterday about whether current Teslas are pre-wired for additional sensors needed for full autonomy, one does well to consider Tesla's interest in residual value. The value of a CPO goes up if Tesla can retrofit the car to support the latest technology. Thus, pre-wiring for AP 2.0 definitely creates value for Tesla as an option for future upgrades. This of course is not sufficient to tell us what Tesla has actually done. It merely tells us what has been within Tesla's interest to have done. So the question is one of foresight, not motivation.

JHM - I think you perfectly make the point that there will remain a luxury market for exclusive ownership. But right now some people do buy Model S and then drive around for Uber. This is exactly the same deal as sending off your car to earn money except the extreme nuisance of having to sit in the car the whole time instead of working or relaxing. I also think the incentive in the near term will be quite high. I am pretty sure that right now if you did a 70:30 split with Tesla (like Apple's 30% cut for iTunes) to let them use your car as an autonomous taxi your side of that deal would result in $dollars per mile, not cents. That would let anyone with a suitable credit score buy a Tesla Model S or a Model X and have Tesla pay them back for the entire purchase by carving out 25 - 30,000 miles while you didn't need it anyway. Some will say No Way my car is my castle. A lot of people would think about it. Obviously any such service would need to come with a kind of interior insurance and a guarantee that the car is returned in mint condition.

Another thing I alluded to earlier - that you cannot operate an AI EV fleet without an OTA network - comes down to the fact that there must be always-on cabin security monitoring, panic alarms, emergency videoconferencing to the mothership and positive ID of at least a lead occupant that stands liable for both mileage fees and cabin damage / clean-up fees, and the ability for the fleet operator to lock down the car and redirect it to the nearest police presence or hospital, or in the case of mechanical failure (loss of tire-pressure or something) coordinate another car to transfer passengers and either send a tow truck or redirect the vehicle to service. It is not enough to develop a LIDAR based vehicle that does not crash.

An apology for discussing big picture stuff here: In the absence of material data like January delivery figures the market has a period of uncertainty in which the players are in fact discussing big picture things. It is not good enough in my view to watch the bears FUD about competition without pointing out the cold fact that this FUD is fundamentally flawed to the point of comedy. Tesla's so-called competition only has a vague idea of what will hit them and no comprehension of the total devastation to their businesses that is guaranteed to occur.

Porsche Mission-e in 2019 - absolute joke. If only Porsche were to survive that long with its Panamera, Cayenne and 911 business ripped away by Model S, Model X and Model 3 AWD respectively. If they do survive until 2019 they will be facing a 400-mile fully autonomous Model S MK2 at half the price of the Mission-e as well as the Max Plaid Roadster.


Edit: Regards wiring for redundant sensors, I would deduce that that since the wiring loom upgrade for Autopilot, every car has Ethernet accessibly from anywhere a sensor could be desirable. The processor cores can no doubt be swapped out for a redundant architecture (SpaceX has a good handle on this kind of thing) and the steering rack actuator if it is not dual redundant already can no doubt be replaced by one that is. Bottom line I don't think they will revisit the loss of backward compatibility experienced with the first Autopilot hardware suite.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

See ya! (Don't wanna be ya)

Here here! Won't happen again.

 

[Bunky]

Classic bear market price action.

That's weird because the bounce off the days low is classic bull market price action. It's probably one or the other, or both, or neither, or maybe its just pointless trying to attribute a short term intra-day price movement to a long term macro market trend.

 

[FredTMC]

I just took Uber back to house after dropping wife's car off for new brakes.

Imagine if tesla starts an auto ride service in a couple years, it'll be huge. Probably creates a third revenue stream for tesla. Bound to increase the stock price.

My point is this'll be the 3rd earnings call where AJ from MS will ask Elon about it. I doubt Elon can blow off the question this time. I think Elon's comments about autonomous driving play well into Elon saying "something" more substantial about ride service on the feb EC.

 

[RobStark]

But right now some people do buy Model S and then drive around for Uber. This is exactly the same deal as sending off your car to earn money except the extreme nuisance of having to sit in the car the whole time instead of working or relaxing.

Not quite.

If you are in your car you can make sure no one is having sex in your car.

Or vandalizing it.

Or doing something even more gross.

 

[Bunky]

Not quite.

If you are in your car you can make sure no one is having sex in your car.

Or vandalizing it.

Or doing something even more gross.

Presumably there could easily be a passenger rating system. Leave my car clean and you get 5 stars. Have sex in it and that would be a zero and it would be difficult for you to stay as a member. As an owner I could choose to not let anyone below a certain rating use my car. It wouldn't be perfect but it works for ebay, uber, airbnb, vrbo etc. where an element of trust is involved. People would be incentivized to respect the cars by the increased availability a higher rating would get them, deterred by the opposite.

 

[stealthology]

You tesla fanboys are so blind that you are CLUELESS to macro trends. Go ahead and put me on block.. See you in the 170s.

Anything can happen.. but keep cnbc on. Fear drives ratings.

 

[ZachShahan]

Funny, CNBC just spent a few minutes discussing Elons quote & its been all over the net, I guess long fantasy post that don't belong in this thread are preffered.

I wasn't at all criticizing you for sharing the link. Just noting that there isn't actually anything new here, so it shouldn't move the needle. That mainstream media is focusing on it for a few minutes isn't surprising -- they have to fill the news, and aren't likely that clued in to this niche segment of the market. If investors act on it as if it's something new, I'd be surprised... but acting on old info as if it's new is quite common among those who don't follow the segment closely, as we've been discussing.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

At what point will people stop suggesting there is any scenario where Elon sells Tesla to Apple? It wouldn't make sense for Apple or Tesla. It would make a lot more sense for Apple to invest a ton of cash in Tesla, via additional Gigafactories, or Tesla's suppliers.

If Apple bought Tesla, Apple would need to pay $100 billion for the company as it exists today, and would be exposing Apple to $500 billion - $1 trillion of risk. This is the same reason Google is using accounting tricks to separate its "automotive division" and Google X, from Google's advertising division.

 

[Yonki]

defeats the purpose of having him on my blocked list if you quote him!

LOL - I had the exact same thought! Of course it does answer the question "Hmmm...exactly WHY did I block him?" that I have from time to time...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Oil falling this low is probably forcing investment funds with too much exposure to oil and other STRANDED ASSETS to sell everything else.

 

[JRP3]

Not quite.

If you are in your car you can make sure no one is having sex in your car.

Or vandalizing it.

Or doing something even more gross.

Cameras.

 

[RobStark]

Presumably there could easily be a passenger rating system. Leave my car clean and you get 5 stars. Have sex in it and that would be a zero and it would be difficult for you to stay as a member. As an owner I could choose to not let anyone below a certain rating use my car. It wouldn't be perfect but it works for ebay, uber, airbnb, vrbo etc. where an element of trust is involved. People would be incentivized to respect the cars by the increased availability a higher rating would get them, deterred by the opposite.

Are you going to gather samples CSI style and run DNA test to make sure nobody is having sex in your car?

There is no way to make sure.

In car cameras go a long way. Then there is losing your privacy for the client.

Clients won't be able to pick their noses?

All those other companies are limited exposure or very limited clientele.

What Julian is proposing is ubiquitous and exposing most people's second biggest purchase/asset their car.

 

[MitchJi]

...comes down to the fact that there must be always-on cabin security monitoring, panic alarms, emergency videoconferencing to the mothership and positive ID of at least a lead occupant that stands liable for both mileage fees and cabin damage / clean-up fees, and the ability for the fleet operator to lock down the car and redirect it to the nearest police presence or hospital, or in the case of mechanical failure (loss of tire-pressure or something) coordinate another car to transfer passengers and either send a tow truck or redirect the vehicle to service. It is not enough to develop a LIDAR based vehicle that does not crash.

Important issues that most of the pie-in-the-sky projections overlook. In other words everything that an uber driver or cab driver does in addition to driving.

How Tesla and Nissan's self-parking cars foreshadow an auto war - Fortune

<snip>
Meanwhile this weekend, owners of the latest version of Tesla’s Model S electric car also got a glimpse of self-parking technology. By downloading some software, drivers could get their Model S cars to park on their own—today, not years from now.

Tesla and Nissan’s divergent strategies around self-parking cars highlights a pair of very different philosophies from two of the most important companies leading the electric car industry.
<snip>

Risk? The GF is going to be almost like printing money!

It may be the companies’ appetites for risk that is one of the biggest differences between Tesla and Nissan’s electric car strategies. Nissan’s initial move to sell electric cars carried some modest element of risk, but Tesla still operates like a startup, and is willing to pile on risk after risk. For example, Tesla is basically betting the farm on building a $5 billion battery factory outside Reno, Nev. that will churn out batteries for its Model 3 car.

 

[RobStark]

Cameras.

Privacy.

 

[Julian Cox]

Not quite.

If you are in your car you can make sure no one is having sex in your car.

Or vandalizing it.

Or doing something even more gross.

Please see my previous comment regards OTA network required for cabin security and monitoring, positive ID, liability and service. It is no problem for Tesla to guarantee your car comes back in great condition or you get a loaner while it's fixed because they can monitor and collect video and audio evidence to deter cabin abuse and to immediately enforce compensation for damage it if it happens. You're right, lending out your car for cash won't be for everyone. There is a huge niche market for luxury and exclusivity that is never going away but the broad market that responds primarily to affordability is invariably the mass market. Heinz and Kellogg families got rich selling beans, ketchup and cornflakes. Much richer than anyone selling Beluga caviar. Tesla is well on track to serving the entire spectrum from the exclusive tastes and requirements of Hollywood celebs to providing safe, rapid and affordable mobility for the first time in history to the occupants of African mud-huts and the workers of Chinese paddy fields.

BTW - the SpaceX 4000 satellite global broadband sky-net will take the Tesla OTA network truly global and I think it will incorporate a SpaceX privately owned centimeter accurate GPS as well as the ability to monitor and dispatch and handle billing for a renewable smart-grid. Technically there is no reason why it would not. This is how millions of people in developing nations will realize aspirations to achieve mobility. Not by ever more Oil and ever more Toyotas.

 

[RobStark]

Please see my previous comment regards OTA network required for cabin security and monitoring, positive ID, liability and service. It is no problem for Tesla to guarantee your car comes back in great condition or you get a loaner while it's fixed because they can monitor and collect video and audio evidence to deter cabin abuse and to immediately enforce compensation for damage it if it happens.

There is zero chance of technology solving my desire for security as a vehicle owner and at the same time my desire for privacy as a client.

The number one reason people use uber is to not drive drunk.

You want cameras recording you in a drunken stupor uploaded to the cloud?

Riding with your mistress. From her house? etc

 

[austinEV]

Are you going to gather samples CSI style and run DNA test to make sure nobody is having sex in your car?

There is no way to make sure.

In car cameras go a long way. Then there is losing your privacy for the client.

Clients won't be able to pick their noses?

All those other companies are limited exposure or very limited clientele.

What Julian is proposing is ubiquitous and exposing most people's second biggest purchase/asset their car.

Odd. Why would you have a presumption of privacy, and presumption of "I can pick my nose here" in a taxi either? This is a false standard. This will be transportation as a service not mobile hotel rooms.

 

[Irishjugg]

You tesla fanboys are so blind that you are CLUELESS to macro trends. Go ahead and put me on block.. See you in the 170s.

I say this in all seriousness CA, please learn to invest with your mind and not with your heart, or hire someone to invest for you. Your emotional makeup seems I'll suited to this and I honestly don't want to see you go broke. You have made some really bad decisions in the past on emotion and fear and we have all watched the pain it caused your emotionally and financially. Just be careful man.