They reiterated their guidance halfway through the quarter. I feel there should be very little deviation from the planned number of deliveries, at most a few hundreds either way. That's small enough to get completely blown away by Model 3 reservation numbers in terms of short term stock price impact.
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They reiterated their guidance halfway through the quarter. I feel there should be very little deviation from the planned number of deliveries, at most a few hundreds either way. That's small enough to get completely blown away by Model 3 reservation numbers in terms of short term stock price impact.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Yes Frankfurt still up ~9 €, Nasdaq Premarket 247.64 as of 6a.m
I guess general public / funds etc. had the time to digest the news over the weekend... ready for lift-off ?
I guess general public / funds etc. had the time to digest the news over the weekend... ready for lift-off ?
TSLA in US premarket jump in share price appears to be related to the overwhelming reservations with the Model 3. I do not see any new analyst upgrades since Friday. So I am thinking some shorts are covering due to unexpected high amount of reservations. And probably in part because Q1Y16 delivery numbers will be out soon. It seems like a good day for a double whammy (Model 3 reservations + deliveries) for TSLA to head north of $250/share. It's already at $247/share at 5:36 AM EST at 29.3K shares traded. This is definitely not the norm for early trading. Update: $248.50 @ 6:07 AM EST with 40.9K shares traded.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
When are the shorts going to run out of ammo? Their argument has holes in it everywhere.
p.s...regarding sidestick for the 3, not gonna happen. I flew F/A-18s for many years....people, realize that airplanes rarely experience yaw (lateral G). That means sidesticks work for planes since you don't need to 'hang on' around a corner. Would be awful in a race car with significant lateral G forces. The 3 will have a HUD though....it's obvious. Was the first thing I thought of when I saw no instrument screen.
p.s...regarding sidestick for the 3, not gonna happen. I flew F/A-18s for many years....people, realize that airplanes rarely experience yaw (lateral G). That means sidesticks work for planes since you don't need to 'hang on' around a corner. Would be awful in a race car with significant lateral G forces. The 3 will have a HUD though....it's obvious. Was the first thing I thought of when I saw no instrument screen.
chickensevil
Active Member
That would imply an almost 270 share price, no? That seems like a bit much for one week, although when the short dam breaks that might just happen. Going to be interesting to see if they have the ammo today to go and get the price back under 240.
Regarding the high short interested, and this is a bit out of my league. But, as others have pointed out before, not all the, circa 30 million, shares sold short are true shorts, i.e. only betting on the demise of TSLA. A chunk of those, the questions is how big, are short positions that are hedged and not looking to cover as they have other long positions in TSLA to balance it out. Anyone care to elaborate further on this?
jhm
Well-Known Member
A trader can write put options and hedge them with shares short so that they are net neutral on the price of Tesla. Such a trader will short only as much as they need to to stay hedged. In this set up, put holders are net short Tesla, not the hedged traders. So either way shares short still is a measure of short interest whether direct or indirect.
Electrifying
Member
Larry Page publicly said "I'd rather give my billions to Elon Musk than charity". How about Elon asking Google for a $6B equity injection? LARRY PAGE: I Would Rather Give My Billions To Elon Musk Than Charity . And Google CEO Sundar Pichai sent a congratulation tweet to Elon yesterday. Hmm ...
In my opinion, Tesla doesn't need equity injection.
The shorts are in an untenable position. They bet $billions on downtrending profits and cash flow and predictions of a distressed capital raise that was blunted on Q4 ER with guidance for a year of uptrending profits and cash flows and no need to raise cash, they doubled down on stupid and failed to cover at the bottom on Macro FUD, they bet against the house on the Model X ramp and they clung on in the hope of Tesla facing a rising tide of competition which turned out to be a joke - not only a joke but to watch the tide reverse and become a rising tide of competition for ICE vehicles from Tesla, they clung on in there for a sell on the news that didn't happen and now they hang by a last thread desperately needing a Q1 delivery miss as a last-ditch hope of stemming an undisciplined stampede of panic covering combined with a bull run. If Tesla fails to provide a delivery miss (and why should they do that for them?) then $270 should appear within hours. Otherwise stock price accumulation will be slower and driven purely by analyst upgrades. Success for the shorts is not one of the possible outcomes within the boundaries of risk that must be assumed to be implicit to stocks as an asset class to participate in the stock market at all. Absent Putin invading Alaska or something of that nature the shorts are toast either now or later.
Edit: Oh and one more thing. The overarching bear thesis that the Oil industry can throttle EV demand in the mid market by lowering the price of gas has been eviscerated by Tesla. TSLA must disconnect from oil as a result of Model 3 reservations. There is no more excuse to suggest that $100K car customers don't care what the price of gas is but at $35K the price of gas is all important. Bunk - and Totally debunked. This is an oil industry problem - if they are struggling to make money at $2.00 and it still does not stem a tsunami of EV interest imagine the exodus at $4.00 or whatever it takes to re-open uneconomical wells or make a profit on stored reserves - the answer to that: Probably not much different unless you are inclined to imagine a tsunami of customers leaving your market intensifying.
At the low to mid $240s we haven't actually priced in any gains yet that can be attributed to Model 3 - maybe $10 if one wanted to nit-pick. So far all we have seen is just a relief rally from Model X ramp frustration and January's Macro FUD news cycle. This is a dam ready to burst to the upside and simply an OK Q1 will break that dam.
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Do you remember last Friday Julian called to buy aggressively above or near $230 level?
ssq
Member
Hmm, would depend on delivery numbers in combination with shorts covering to get to that level. I amna but skeptical of holding it too close to export. Somewhat new to short term option play. I did cancel the limit order to see how the early part of the day plays out with opening price being close to 245.
Welcome. And what do I get out of it except the high probability of crossing unwashed sock-eating off my to do list?
I am clearly nuts. Suggestions for more constructive use of my time gratefully received by PM.
Chickenlittle
Banned
On Friday there was a flurry of options purchases at open, then prices plummeted from there. I think you should consider having a limit order set up at open, but I also agree $8.50 is to low. I would think somewhere just under $10, and if you have more than one contract, don't sell them all.
I am going to set up several limit orders for open, but I have 280s, so perhaps price action is different that far out of the money.
jhm
Well-Known Member
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