Depends how you define bull, I guess. It's all about perspective.
I'd say, "Even a bear like Jonas, who only believes 20% of guidance, has a PT of $333. Therefore, the stock is grossly undervalued."
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Depends how you define bull, I guess. It's all about perspective.
I'd say, "Even a bear like Jonas, who only believes 20% of guidance, has a PT of $333. Therefore, the stock is grossly undervalued."
The model X ramp tarnishes their credibility in the short term, which then pollutes a lot of stuff.
Short term issues , influence rightly or wrongly long term expectations.
Price dependent on future projections and confidence may not offset short term setbacks.
The withdrawal of a fcf positive quarter seems off the table, as huge capital investment
requirements lie ahead. Capital raise further compounds issues.
The massive model 3 reservations should give support to the stock at
around a 50% retracement as Curt said, also my view, though ignore me.
Short term issues , influence rightly or wrongly long term expectations.
Price dependent on future projections and confidence may not offset short term setbacks.
The withdrawal of a fcf positive quarter seems off the table, as huge capital investment
requirements lie ahead. Capital raise further compounds issues.
The massive model 3 reservations should give support to the stock at
around a 50% retracement as Curt said, also my view, though ignore me.
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TSLA's battery "testing" partner gets Canada's GG award for innovation
Tesla’s new battery research partner is receiving the prestigious Governor General’s Innovation Award
To get the price to stop declining , tesla has to Maybe negate some of the polluting issues.
at a minimum show that near term execution is going well
1. Show the model x ramp is approaching a very high rate, even 1000 units per week.
2. Show that fcf positive goes hand in hand with model x production, before model 3 capex
3. Show that they are exceeding their guidance for deliveries this quarter.
at a minimum show that near term execution is going well
1. Show the model x ramp is approaching a very high rate, even 1000 units per week.
2. Show that fcf positive goes hand in hand with model x production, before model 3 capex
3. Show that they are exceeding their guidance for deliveries this quarter.
Musk already fell back to 800 X by end of Q2 in the earnings call, while he said 1000 in the previous one.
Curt, you post things like this quite often, and I really wish you wouldn't. What you are explicitly doing here is asking for more information for an "ad hominem" argument - an argument which focuses on the person making the argument, rather than the ideas in the argument. This is not helpful. Arguments should be evaluated by their ideas and the backing those ideas have, not by who is making them. We have enough problems on this board with people getting personal in their arguments, we don't need more people saying "yeah well I'm a really good businessman so I know what to do here" "yeah but your business is lame so you don't know what to do here" (like the two or three pages this weekend which I skipped over entirely because they were just bickering nonsense) etc. This is not productive. It can only lower the level of discourse. We have enough witch hunts as it is.
There are plenty of reasons not to take tftf seriously based on his arguments. I encourage everyone to stick to those, they are more robust.
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I think "near term execution" is why Musk gave the July 1 2017 date. He created a metric that allows investors to ask concrete questions about M3 progress.
I think this shows a sensitivity from him that his over promising is wearing thin with many investors.
Should EM seriously consider selling Tesla to Apple? I think that will do good to both Tesla and share holders.
The cash spent was for R&D which is already past. When you are talking Model X delays based on the anecdotal evidence and extrapolating it to say the ramp up is a failure is completely ludicrous. For Model X it's about cash recuperation at this point. It's a matter of phasing.
Sure some forum users are reporting their cars are being delayed for a multitude of reasons, but you don't see me using the 2 Model X deliveries I witnessed on Saturday being absolutely flawless and saying that they are making xx,xxx number of Model X's per week at 100% pass rate and high quality. Tesla is the best.
You're falling into the trap of making an analogy between Model X and S production and Model 3 which doesn't make any sense at all. In the short term, it's great as you can capitalize on similar sentiment which is perfect for this thread but with the junk that's swirling it's just adding to misinformation for those who are new to Tesla.
And to further answer your question, how do I think the cash efficiency is? I think it's just fine given that it's being utilized for an ahead of schedule Gigafactory and a RAMP UP. The term ramp up answers the question already.
SuperDragon
Member
I just bought..... but I do think theres a strong possibility you will see the stock below $200 this week
I really wish i would have purchased more at the $150 mark not too long ago ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I really wish i would have purchased more at the $150 mark not too long ago ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Fallenone, my hypothetical scenario with 4600 Q1 completed-but-unsold Model X vehicles was not intended to depict the actual condition. Rather, it was intended to show how much additional FCF Model X could have generated if all the planned 7,000 Model X vehicles could have been built.
The important part of the exercise is to demonstrate that costs of the Model X vehicles were being counted twice in the methodology used: once when the labor and parts costs were included in Q1 ER, and again when the revenue from Model X vehicles that could have been sold was discounted by multiplying by 20% (and thus counting the cost of manufacturing a second time).
Here's a simple example: You have a product that sells for $9 and plan to produce 100 of them during the quarter. The gross margin for that product is 20% if all 100 can be built. Unfortunately, due to manufacturing issues, only 40 are built and sold. The company realized 40x $9 = $360 revenue, but how much Free Cash Flow could have been generated if all 100 could have been built and sold?
Let us say that the quarterly earnings report contained the cost for producing all 100 of these products since labor was already hired and on the property, third-party parts companies had already delivered enough parts for 100 products, and the company had already bought enough aluminum and other basic ingredients to build those 100 products. The likely cost reflected in the earnings report would be 100 x $9 x .80 = $720. To figure how much FCF was lost by not producing and delivering the remaining 60 products, you multiply 60 x $9 = $540. That is your answer. You can double-check the figures by adding $540 to $360 = $900, which is the total revenue brought in if 100 products had been built and delivered. You have already accounted for the cost of producing those 100 unites in the Earnings report ($720), which would yield a GM of 20%. The point I'm trying to make is that you don't multiply the revenue from selling those units by 20% GM, because then you would be counting your costs twice.
If you're looking forward at a quarter and no numbers are already included in an earnings report, sure, go ahead and multiply potential products created by the GM to come up with a contribution to FCF, but if you're looking back on an earnings report AND THE COST OF PRODUCING THOSE PRODUCTS HAS ALREADY BEEN BAKED INTO THE ER, don't multiply the potential revenue by the GM because then you will be double-counting the costs.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Considering the precipitous decline of Apple's design quality and software quality in the past 2 years, I think that would be a horrible idea.
Eggregious examples of bad design: What happened to Apple design?
The iPhone 6 and 6S had problems too: very slippery, so thin that it was too easily bent, and ugly in the rear with odd antenna bands and a protruding camera.
From the software side: OS X El Capitan was so full of bugs that outraged MacRumors forum members dubbed it "El Crapitan". iOS 8 and 9 were riddled with bugs upon release. Despite extensive public Beta trials, iOS 9.3 bricked some iPhones and iPads and was temporarily pulled.
So no, I don't want Apple anywhere near Tesla. They need to get their own house in order.
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Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
No, Tesla shall not be sold to Apple.
He would not do it - anyway. For the time being, Tesla needs EM. Being sold to Apple would be a bigger headache than the way it is now.
Tesla can stay independent operationally.
But Apple can provide Tesla all the cash required to develop/make/sell its future models, including 3.
Tesla has no problem acquiring all the cash it might need.
Why go to Apple for it and pay high interest if there are cheaper options?
Don't panic.
Tesla is in no trouble at all, it has the best imaginable problem : too good products.
Why go to Apple for it and pay high interest if there are cheaper options?
Don't panic.
Tesla is in no trouble at all, it has the best imaginable problem : too good products.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This may sound good in theory, but I doubt it would work. Apple actively works to integrate its acquisitions into the Apple ecosystem, so I doubt that independence would last very long. Tesla would likely face pressure to integrate into iTunes, iCloud, and other Apple services.
Practicalities aside, I can't see a visionary like Elon Musk ever choosing to work for Tim Cook. Cook is good at what he does: supply chain management and related operations stuff, but he doesn't have the same instinct for product that Steve Jobs had.
Forget about finances for a second. So you're sitting on 400K+ reservations and now ER is coming. Is there any chance in hell you'd be repeating the old story? That'd be straight up crazy. Ideas have power. If you wanted to go all in on making half a mil of these things in 2 years you'd want to broadcast that ASAP, with conviction and with actionable specifics. Now there's momentum behind this idea, it'll move things around for you, it influences people. Keeping this out of the public eye would definitely reduce the chances of success. For example, now that the idea is out there you will attract people who are ready to take on such a challenge. Having substantially different internal and external communication diminishes the power of an idea and diminishes credibility of the leadership.
Even if it was a choice of acquiring capital at a higher price (which we're yet to see if that's the case), anything but what Musk said and did would be not quite 100% in.
Now for short term I think pretty much there's a consensus among folks who've been in this for a while and personally I think there's a lot of merit to it. You can't get out and wait because there's a substantial chance of stock-moving rabbit coming out of a hat, but you can't be too aggressive since it is entirely possible that we're just going to have to be patient for another couple years before this gig gains true credibility with the market. Reality is probably going to land somewhere in between.
Even if it was a choice of acquiring capital at a higher price (which we're yet to see if that's the case), anything but what Musk said and did would be not quite 100% in.
Now for short term I think pretty much there's a consensus among folks who've been in this for a while and personally I think there's a lot of merit to it. You can't get out and wait because there's a substantial chance of stock-moving rabbit coming out of a hat, but you can't be too aggressive since it is entirely possible that we're just going to have to be patient for another couple years before this gig gains true credibility with the market. Reality is probably going to land somewhere in between.
Does anyone think EM will bring forward the Part 2 of Model 3 reveal to 8 weeks from now (If that's when the design will be released for tooling) and then use the bump, both in the stock price and Model 3 bookings, to go for a cash raise?
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