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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Like some fed up hedge fund manager said: "I am too old for this." referring to having to stay up and look at the asian market.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah, but at least the Naz and S&P futures are close to flat right now. Hopefully China can rally soon into their Monday close
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
ZachShahan
Active Member
Note, of course, that Jon & Elon are very good friends.
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Exactly. It shocks me how much this is the case. Or how much investors don't act on Tesla's plans until they are finally delivered. That's again why I think now is a good time to put more in. Good news on the next call regarding X production, good $$ numbers on the next call or the one after, a big Model 3 reveal followed closely by taking in a ton of reservation cash, Tesla Energy products rolling out, and growing demand as normal people find out about the Model X and Autopilot all point to up, up, up, imho.
And on the flip side, what is going to send the stock much lower than it is today? I have a hard time seeing anything. Clearly, macro problems could cause issues, but those shouldn't keep it down for long or send it too deep (i hope). Continued problems ramping up Model X production could be bad, but I'm trusting Elon that this is basically worked out and production is increasing exponentially. No chance in hell the Model 3 unveiling will be a disappointment (esp. after what we saw from Faraday Future, and the Bolt not having super-fast charging capability, Autopilot, or anything super snazzy). Gigafactory delays? Doesn't seem like it.
Naturally, unexpected things happen all the time. But sometimes those of us who follow closely are most surprised when most investors don't seem to get it, and then aren't prepared when they figure it out a few months or several months later and the stock flies.
Would hate to know all of this, not put more money in, and then see the stock price rise to $300 "all of a sudden."
This is what personally I've been struggling with. Supposedly there's all this super big brain entities with lots on the line and access to all sorts of information but there's also incidents that show that they were very reactive and had no foresight. I'm having a hard time acting as if I have arbitrage opportunity -- information is out there for anyone with a brain to act on!
Does Tesla explicitly say that the Summon feature should only be used on private property?
Does the Summon feature work on public streets or in large parking lots where you might need to park far from the store you're going into, or might need to move your vehicle from a Toby spot for any number of reasons?
In the long term, this will eliminate any inconvenience created by finding a parking space.
Going to check out data on parking trends in major cities later today. Very curious to know how much time the average person spends finding a parking space in specific cities and trends regarding accidents in parking lots. My guess is that a significant number of accidents that occur, that happen in parking lots are due to very predictable variables, that sensors would by definition be better at detecting. Tesla should in time be able to use data from the Model S and Model X to support the claim that autonomous parking is safer than non-autonomous parking.
Does the Summon feature work on public streets or in large parking lots where you might need to park far from the store you're going into, or might need to move your vehicle from a Toby spot for any number of reasons?
In the long term, this will eliminate any inconvenience created by finding a parking space.
Going to check out data on parking trends in major cities later today. Very curious to know how much time the average person spends finding a parking space in specific cities and trends regarding accidents in parking lots. My guess is that a significant number of accidents that occur, that happen in parking lots are due to very predictable variables, that sensors would by definition be better at detecting. Tesla should in time be able to use data from the Model S and Model X to support the claim that autonomous parking is safer than non-autonomous parking.
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I agree Dave. It's borderline false advertising to the uninformed. In two years, the Model 3 will have been on the market for at least 6 mos (hopefully) and autonomous driving would be (hopefully) standard on the X and S at that point.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Do we know for certain that Tesla will not offer a sensor hardware upgrade for Tesla's with AP? Tesla seemed pretty clear that a hardware upgrade would be needed, so it is plausible that they anticipated the architecture needed for such an upgrade too.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Very unlikely a retrofit will be available. They probably need 1-3 additional radars, and probably 1-3 additional cameras. These are substantial changes and probably very costly to retrofit. My thought about what they need:
- Rear-facing radar (for changing lanes with cars approaching from the rear)
- Rear-facing camera (reversing camera might be integrated instead of adding an additional camera)
- Front left radar (for looking to the left at intersections)
- Front right radar (for looking to the right at intersections)
- Second front camera (for redundancy, possibly also wider angle to get a better overview of the traffic situation)
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jhm
Well-Known Member
There are two sides to this story and I cannot yet foresee which one will win in the short term. Gut feel, net 10 years of obstruction is excessive.
1. The existing cars with existing Autopilot hardware will be statistically safer to deliver themselves to a location than hiring a delivery driver to perform the task. Tesla will have the data to be able to prove this in a Congressional hearing and also to challenge any regulatory obstruction in a court of law, for example the Supreme Court.
2. There will be a huge amount of well funded lobbying with the aim of generating vexatious regulatory obstruction.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Perhaps a redesign of the side mirrors and interior of the tailgate could accomodate this. The key thing is that cabling and computer ports need to be in place.
I won't say it's impossible, but it isn't very likely. If Tesla knew exactly what they needed on the computer and cabling side of the matter, they would already know what sensors they need, and if so, they would probably ship the cars with the sensors already installed.
Of course, another possibility is that there might be a date where the computer and cabling is changed to the newest revision, without adding any sensors. If so, you could have a situation where all Model S with AP produced after say December 1st 2015 can be upgraded to full autonomy.
That's what I've been wondering too. At some point I think Tesla has to start doing more to reward/protect their early adopters/customers (i.e. their largest and most effective salesforce) when it's possible. Obviously they can't do this with every feature/improvement, but with AP being such a huge, visible, and much-discussed part of Tesla's future I would hope they would be forward thinking enough to at least install the wires needed for a future AP upgrade. Then in a few months announce something like "All MX and MS produced since January 17th have AP2.0 upgrade capability."
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