Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[lango]

Given the macro-picture which I believe is falsely bleak (it's absolute temporary turmoil in the energy sector atm), but I honestly think is false panic everywhere else. Tesla is really firing on "all cylinders." The current market cap is merely "fine" to me. People need to realize that Tesla Energy is farther along than we all might think. I am also basing my opinion on seeing many Model X's in person so far. Admittedly some with calibration issues, but nothing material and I believe software fixed the vast majority of this. I hope to confirm for myself in the coming weeks.

I agree and I think this will start to clear up in the summer.

The success of Tesla is not decoupled from the SP though as they need it for further financing. So the risk for the whole company increases quite a bit with lower SP. TE, GF and Model 3 is positioned as good as it can but it need the push from investment which they don't have as much as needed.

I think there is a reason to worry, especially if today's report goes bad. The worst scenario would be Model 3 delayed and guidance lowered because of Model X ramp and a not so good Q&A. All this things can happen.
Personally, I will keep my shares no matter what. I think they can find a way to finance the investment even if the SP is low.

 

[dreamingof3]

So.. we were up 6 now up .65 in less than an hour. This thing stinks to high heaven of inside info leaking in early Jan when Tesla was finishing closing the quarter. Coincidence that the shares started dropping right around that time and short interest increased the following two periods? Wicked game

 

[Darren12]

Do you have the similar info on SCTY yesterday? Thanks

SolarCity (SCTY) February weekly 28 straddle priced for 22% movement.

Also, for reference, Disney (DIS) February weekly 92 straddle priced for 5.8% movement.

 

[Fallenone]

Thanks! So not too off.

SolarCity (SCTY) February weekly 28 straddle priced for 22% movement.

Also, for reference, Disney (DIS) February weekly 92 straddle priced for 5.8% movement.

 

[dreamingof3]

Tesla (TSLA) February weekly 148 straddle priced for 14% movement.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if we got a 14% downside move. Too much short interest that might "know something".

 

[Gerardf]

How should I interpret this ?

" Options activity has picked up, too, with notable volume in the weekly Feb 140 put options and for the weekly 175 and 180 calls."

Markets bets on either going below 140 or above 175 ?

source : http://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2016/02/10/earnings-twtr-tsla-traders-positioning-for-volatility-around-latest-results/2/#4e409950191c

 

[hockeythug]

How should I interpret this ?

" Options activity has picked up, too, with notable volume in the weekly Feb 140 put options and for the weekly 175 and 180 calls."

Markets bets on either going below 140 or above 175 ?

source : http://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2016/02/10/earnings-twtr-tsla-traders-positioning-for-volatility-around-latest-results/2/#4e409950191c

"Short-term option traders have priced in a potential 14% share change in either direction around the earnings release"

 

[Johan]

How should I interpret this ?

" Options activity has picked up, too, with notable volume in the weekly Feb 140 put options and for the weekly 175 and 180 calls."

Markets bets on either going below 140 or above 175 ?

source : http://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2016/02/10/earnings-twtr-tsla-traders-positioning-for-volatility-around-latest-results/2/#4e409950191c

Yes, more or less.

As with all the ERs the winners will be those selling options, both puts and calls, due to time premium deflation post ER regardless (mostly) of direction of movement of TSLA (this effect is most pronounced with flat movement).

 

[esk8mw]

How should I interpret this ?

" Options activity has picked up, too, with notable volume in the weekly Feb 140 put options and for the weekly 175 and 180 calls."

Markets bets on either going below 140 or above 175 ?

source : http://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2016/02/10/earnings-twtr-tsla-traders-positioning-for-volatility-around-latest-results/2/#4e409950191c

I think that's exactly it. The market has no clue whatsoever. All it knows is that there will be volatility.

 

[jesselivenomore]

This thread is____. Can't believe the moderator bans people like Julian for posting their opinion. We need to stop the predominant negative sentiment in this thread, especially when things are not heading the right direction. Now the moderator just letting the bears here rule. Just wait for the gloating and the "see I told you so" after earnings release.

1. He was banned for physical threats against me. Can't blame the mods, although personally I didn't mind too much.

2. Taking a more bearish view especially 2 weeks ago would have been infinitely more beneficial for people here rather than listening to those pumping the stock and trying to convince you to go all in at 200.

3. Positive or negative sentiment in this thread, and the couple of hundreds of shares that get traded here do not make the stock go up or down. It is not our job in this thread to defend it, because we can not. The stock will go where it will go. It is our job in this thread to not be delusional about it, rather than blindly being positive or negative.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

 

[aznt1217]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

Agree, but I think the one factor that's going to catch everybody off guard is Tesla Energy. There seems to be an overwhelming sentiment that this is delayed getting pushed back. Here's some food for thought. Customer installations for Powerwall were installed in Australia and UK. This means that the sales/revenues were recognized sometime ago in Q4 given that these batteries need to be sold to third party sellers. We also know Powerpack installations were given priority over Powerwall. Take it for what it is, but the fact that nobody is mentioning this is huge to me.

It also bodes well that Tesla is batching their orders for Model X and not having 1 part hold the entire fleet build up. While it's unfortunate that some Sig owners didn't get their cars yet, I believe management thinks its better to ship a complete car rather than one with due bill like they did with Model S in 2012.

 

[lango]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

Guidance is one thing, but the market also needs to believe them. I think the Q&A will matter more than usual. I agree they will cut down spending. Someone mentioned the SC buildout had stalled.

I would personally feel better about it if we had confirmation X production problems is solved.
I am long too so yeah will be interesting...

 

[pGo]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

My take.

1) Must happen to see us in green.
2) I believe 80k should be good. I would like something that's achievable.
3) I don't see q1 meeting q4 in terms of delivery. Hard to say if market understands this.

 

[uselesslogin]

1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.

What changed is the Model X has gone from shipping 5,000 units this quarter to maybe 2,000.

2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon

"A win needs to feel like a win." Especially with slow Model X ramp I'm not sure if they want to get aggressive.

3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS

I've thought about this one. If they say they are going to produce another 15,000 Model S and deliver 15,000 Model S and then also 2,000 Model X that might be way more than anyone was expecting. We'll see though...

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

I'm not sure maybe he does. He said it once. On some level though I'm sure he loves it but I know he also tries to not focus on the share price.

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks UselessLogin

anyone know what analyst consensus is for deliveries (sales) in Q1?

I'm least confident on Q1 sales guidance compared to FCF and 2016 guide...

I've thought about this one. If they say they are going to produce another 15,000 Model S and deliver 15,000 Model S and then also 2,000 Model X that might be way more than anyone was expecting. We'll see though...

 

[esk8mw]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

I think the delicate balance here is can Tesla slow spending in 2016 enough (i.e., less capex) while still giving strong 2016 guidance (most important thing, IMO) and claiming M3 is on track for 2017?

I think the answer to the first 2 is yes. The line is already set up to produce 80k+ in 2016. Tesla already did the big spend to get this production capacity and the Model X (mostly) in order in 2015. I don't think additional spending is needed in 2016 to give good guidance and actually hit it. I believe Elon when he hints at the fact that X will ramp up here shortly, which will allow 80k+. The issue I see is that lowered 2016 spend (practically a necessity now to avoid having to raise cash in a tighter market) will lead to a delayed Model 3 launch.

 

[dreamingof3]

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

Thanks for making me smile Fred. I was not familiar with the Tsunami of hurt quote Elon used. I do know he takes it personal, so I'm looking forward to a squeeze. I think 1 and 2 are important. I think 2 only needs to be 80k.

Does anyone watch Billions? I loved the most recent episode where Axe almost got squeezed. He had to borrow shares from an enemy at 25% because his shares were no longer able to be borrowed. Ahhh! A Tesla long can dream can't he!?

 

[Fallenone]

I think the market also needs to hear a clear respond to the "only rendered pictures of 3 in March" rumor. It's kinda getting out of hand. EM doesn't need to tell all the details about the spec and other stuff, but a firm "yes of course there will be the prototype in March, what are people thinking?" is a must in my opinion.

I'm going into earnings LONG (as usual).

To my credit/credentials: I was right about tesla reaffirming guidance LAST qtr (for Q4 and 2015). A very unpopular view...

please shoot holes in my 3 points below (TIA). Tesla will trade lower (IMO) if these points aren't met.


1). Tesla says on track for FCF positive in Q1. Remember, Elon said this was an aspiration for Q1 during last call. What changed since then? Macro collapse. So, tesla will slow spending of CapEx in Q1 to enable positive FCF. CapEx is "discretionary" spending. They have seen the market collapse, they know the street wants to see end of cash burn. Also, Deepak said last CC that CapEx will be less in 2016 v 2015.


2). Strong guidance for 2016. 85K min. That's not unbelievably higher than expected. It's Plausible. Assembly Line capable of 2000/week. that's it's max output according to Elon


3). Strong guidance (top and bottom) for Q1. Remember that Q1 ain't over yet. TM may be slow ramp so far on MX, the production on MS fills the gap. It's ONE assembly line for BOTH cars. Less MX means more MS


Finally,

Elon LOVES to squeeze shorts. Loves it! Remember the words "Tsunami of hurt" he used years ago? He would love to squeeze the non-believers. It's personal.

 

[Papafox]

Tesla's spokesperson just days ago reaffirmed that Model 3 is still on track to begin deliveries in 2017. It would be foolhardy for Musk to contradict this statement during the ER and CC.

I think the delicate balance here is can Tesla slow spending in 2016 enough (i.e., less capex) while still giving strong 2016 guidance (most important thing, IMO) and claiming M3 is on track for 2017?

I think the answer to the first 2 is yes. The line is already set up to produce 80k+ in 2016. Tesla already did the big spend to get this production capacity and the Model X (mostly) in order in 2015. I don't think additional spending is needed in 2016 to give good guidance and actually hit it. I believe Elon when he hints at the fact that X will ramp up here shortly, which will allow 80k+. The issue I see is that lowered 2016 spend (practically a necessity now to avoid having to raise cash in a tighter market) will lead to a delayed Model 3 launch.