The line may keep getting longer because each year's demand is more than the production. When you do want to get a Model 3, you may have to wait another few years. The deposit amount is so small, I think it's safer just reserve first. For the stock price, I think there is a good chance to hit $600 by 2020.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
+1
Exactly, I think it is a moot point whether a conquest sale, a loyalty sale, a sale stolen from another EV or a sale stolen from an ICE manufacture. Once Tesla is plateauing out of its rapid growth phase then it will start to matter exactly what type of sales it makes, just like it matters to VW Toyota GM and Ford right now.
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
This I agree with.
Tesla will be demand constrained for the foreseeable future. They don't need customers, they need the most loyal buyers they can get right now.
jhm
Well-Known Member
You're counting cars. I'm counting customers. Loyal customers buy multiple cars over the years. So a new customer is worth more than a single car sold.
Try to think forward to 2025. How many loyal customers (households) will Tesla need to be able to sell 5 million cars per year? A customer base of 20 million would be nice. What's their customer base right now? Maybe 100k. So Tesla needs to grow the customer base by about 70% each year. So when a huge marketing event comes along that can grow the customer base, it seems to me you want to make the most of it.
So Tesla will sell every car it makes, but growing the customer base is not so easy. This takes us well past our comfort zone with early adopters.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is no factual basis for any of this conjecture other than current owners are likelier to have higher optioned Model 3s because income/wealth of current owners is likely significantly higher than first time Model 3 owners.
The implication that Tesla is not a for profit business and is a charity or a showcase for egalitarian or vegan values offends me as a shareholder. And there is no conflict of interest between the ultimate goal of the company,transition to sustainable transport, and maximizing long term profits.
Would be conquest buyers that have been waiting for years will likely wait another year as priority is given to current owners. I doubt 85% plus of current S/X owners buy a Model 3 or for every Gen II vehicle current owners buy .85 Model 3s but that would be great.
And I do think current owners are far less likely to scream bloody murder on social media and to Consumer Reports,JD powers etc if something goes wrong. I don't think the increased social media from first time buyers in the first 9 months of Model 3 production is a net gain for Tesla. Particularly since Tesla will be production constrained for years to come. Increasing demand that can't be met only frustrates customers.
Ah now I'm beginning to understand why we differ on this issue. I think growing the customer base beyond early adopters will be extremely easy for Tesla. I've never been an early adopter of anything and yet I want a Model 3...and I don't think I'm the only one. People will be queuing for years just to be a "conquest" of Tesla. IMO conquest is a misnomer here.
phigment
Member
Tesla Motors Chief Spokesman Leaves Ahead of Model 3 Unveil
Wonder what rumours will come of Ricardo Reyes (Vice President of Global Communications) leaving Tesla.
Wonder what rumours will come of Ricardo Reyes (Vice President of Global Communications) leaving Tesla.
jhm
Well-Known Member
For a little personal context, my wife and I recently placed our order for our second Model S, no trade-in. We gave careful consideration to waiting for the Model 3. We decided that we did not want to wait that long and opted to buy now.
One concern that I have with the priority to owners is that it actually encourages couples like us not to buy a Model S or X now, but rather to wait for a Model 3. We were very much on this edge. So the Osborne effect has already begun and is magnified with this policy.
If the intent is in fact to slow inhibit demand creation, that would would make sense.
One concern that I have with the priority to owners is that it actually encourages couples like us not to buy a Model S or X now, but rather to wait for a Model 3. We were very much on this edge. So the Osborne effect has already begun and is magnified with this policy.
If the intent is in fact to slow inhibit demand creation, that would would make sense.
Reyes has worked elsewhere in Silicon Valley and he's in demand. My guess is that someone gave him an offer he couldn't refuse.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
This could be an opportunity for Tesla to up the level for their communications, which has always been one of the their weak spots. (All in my humble opinion, but I know a lot of people here on the forum agree). I would like to see clear, proactive, honest and effective communications from Tesla. I love for Elon to speak freely, tweet and all that, but the entire communications strategy has to be coherent.
mejojo
Active Member
sub
Active Member
I'm a little bummed that I will be pushed back in line behind the employees and current owners, but I see the bigger picture beyond myself. There is no company I want to see succeed more than Tesla, as long as they are sold out I'm happy, I'll benefit via TSLA. I could be a current owner had a chosen to do so but I'm cheap, not Teslas fault. Looks like I will have to bring my wife to reserve a 2nd car if it is 1 per person, unless they will let my 14 year old daughter reserve one? Good chance I'll be buying an S/X before model 3 production anyways so an extra few months wait won't kill me.
sub
Active Member
Good to hear, I'm still in the hole a little on current positions but that shouldn't last too much longer. I was thinking of those few forum members they crumbled under the pressure and sold out near the low, watching the stock climb back up is a 2nd slug to the gut. Let this be a lesson to everyone that was panicking 6 weeks ago, relax.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Of course tesla will continue to expand their service centers. More density over time. No question.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ok. Jeez. This better be the last time Elon brings him back.
We will probably never know the reason for leaving but I'd guess it's probably related to his compensation. His options are probably under water. That's no fun. I get it.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
