Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Yggdrasill]

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

People have won the lottery at your age, turning a few dollars into millions. This is just as an irrelevant achievement as your gains.

Your arguments speak for themselves, and they are weak.

 

[dakh]

View attachment 177628

So this pretty much means the theory of one big player buying up the whole offering isn't checking out, correct? Or they could still do that via all these different underwriters?

 

[GoTslaGo]

So this pretty much means the theory of one big player buying up the whole offering isn't checking out, correct? Or they could still do that via all these different underwriters?

Thanks for reposting that list, missed it the first time around. In retrospect, maybe should have taken that cold call from my brokerage...

Still remembered that movie, "Boiler Room" I think it was called...

 

[Intl Professor]

As I mentioned before, ad hominems are not a rigorous argumentation method. That said, you make a fair point here, because you are calling out perfectlogic's ad hominem. This is the Internet, what you claim to accomplish, perfectlogic, is irrelevant. Besides, myself, as the president of every country on earth and the world's only omniscient super-billionaire (that's a billion billion, btw), I'm clearly the most qualified person in the universe to answer all questions on all topics.

PS where are the mods?

Watching and cringing.

 

[schonelucht]

The increase in charging speed does not necessarily have to be associated with the bigger battery. From the Q1 2016 shareholders letter:

"We introduced the Model S refresh in April, with the largest single set of hardware changes (nearly 300 part changes in total) on Model S to date. Updates include an enhanced look for the front of the car, adaptive headlights, faster charging and more range, all for a minimal price increase."

That's a reference to the faster (single) AC to DC charger unit in the car, not faster DC charging. The former is well below the charging capacity of the battery and therefore not very indicative of max charging capabilities of the latest Tesla batteries, let alone give us insight on Supercharger speeds for Model 3.

 

[Irishjugg]

I appreciate that you can respect me having a different view than yourself without resorting to misrepresenting and straight up lying about what I'm saying to make me look bad, like some of the more outspoken hyper bulls here have done to feel better about their investment. Of course I too respect your position and it is definitely not impossible for Tesla to meet the 80k. I'm giving it a 25% chance of happening and that would most likely be due to a boost in X demand.



What a complete disaster the X have been. The long delays, the high price of developement, and still now after this long they can't seem to get it right. Unfortunately this whole ordeal have really lowered my confidence in Elon's decision making. Not saying he is a bad CEO by a long shot but I think this is a testament to his inexperience working as a CEO for a company like this.

I guess where we differ is that I don't see the problems with X as indicative of any demand problem I think X Demand is great, and just as good if not better than S at this stage, but I do see the X delay as something that has caused some pre-orders to stay unconverted (though not cancelled) and just in general a slow ramp making it look like there is less demand. My thesis about hitting deliveries breaks down if X production doesn't stay steady state at a reasonable rate of course, and in that case, I just end up having to find money to buy more shares. shrug.

 

[Irishjugg]

Reported to moderation, reason: Lies.


I have unblocked you temporarily to systematically report your abuse of this forum along with your troll tag team/sock puppet? buddy @JamesTSLA

I consider it public service and would strongly encourage others to do likewise until your TMC account is terminated. The weeks and months ahead are important and I for one place a high value on the existence of a dishonesty / idiot-free zone.

Julian, please stop. Among people with negative points about Tesla, Perfectlogic is certainly the most reasonable (though electracity is quite reasonable lately too). Don't get into another dick measuring contest like you did with jesse. It's not becoming of you and ends up with you getting a timeout as well, and many people want your insights here, clear and un-banned. Reporting him to the mods for vocally disagreeing with you is pretty out of bounds.

EDIT: At this point you have stopped and I was too many pages behind when I said this. Thanks.

 

[Hogfighter]

Maybe I am just seeing too far ahead and already know this. I forget that the average person doesn't follow TSLA news and might get excited. But I kind of remember previous instances where we work up a frenzy about the meeting and a few attended. They seem to coincide with a peak.

But my reasoning has more to do with interest rate environment. Most of my free cash will go towards investments that will rise if interest rate rise and do it at a multiple while providing monthly income. Actually, most of my non TSLA portfolio is geared towards this scenario or are indifferent to rates. I can't wait for rate to go back to normality.

So I haven't figured out whether or not TSLA will thrive in a rising rate environment, hence my short term muted interest until Model 3 rolls off the line. What this revealed to me is that I do not think things happening at TSLA will be able to do much against the coming Macro moves until Model 3 and I am subconsciously maneuvering against the coming change in Macro. What Elon has done very well, is taking advantage of the current Macro environment to get as much debt as he can at near 0 interest rate and then have the safety raise before the next President and ensured that TSLA will not die. I don't know who is advising Elon on the financial side, but very well played. Can't say the same for the rest of the SIlicon Valley.

We are very close to a shift in Macro... at least in my part of the world. This I concluded after going undercover and interviewing many people for the past year to get the information I need. I am in the process of finishing up in this industry that I've been involved in for the past 3 years and moving on to the next industry. Most of you are from USA, so I don't know what to say to you since you have different moving pieces.

But to better answer the question. I do not think the event mentioned in TSLA will eclipse that of the Macro even that will happen in my part of the world, hence my money is going where I can get the most potential return for the risk I take.

Wow, that's a lot longer than I intended. Usually I only type out the final paragraph and don't mention the thought process. But it's a long weekend and I am still in the process of moving my blog.

Thanks for this. My hunch is that Q2 will be in line with estimates. The X delivery pages sound promising, but we are expecting a ramp in deliveries...so the pages should sound promising.

 

[Irishjugg]

If you are curious: $220k all from less than $1k, earned from online poker and investing. Don't feel the need to put it in my profile though, I will let my arguments speak for themselves.

Don't know how to send a private message on this new layout, but would be interested in hearing about your poker side. I also play and have played semi professionally, though since I'm in the US it's been quite a while since I've been able to play online

 

[skljsd329832]

Watching and cringing.

The delete and suspend buttons are mightier than the cringe.

Some of us are actually quite keen to elucidate and anticipate the future direction of the stock price and some of us have gotten quite good at it - many others are quite keen to share valuable observations and insights as to what might be relevant in that regard. Others still to share relevant experience and feelings about the company's products and positions they have taken in the stock.

This is the one public-facing resource left on Earth that has the potential not to be drowned out by attack shills - incessantly deriding the company, its products, the stock and any shareholder in it regardless of the direction of the stock price.

TMC cannot (IMHO) be allowed to become a venue where you get banned for adding value, for getting it right, helping fellow members make money and avoid losses - and cannot become a venue that offers a free pass to mindlessly mock and sneer, carpet bomb with propaganda heedless of reasoned counter argument (of basically the entire group) and generally seek to wreck the joint for everyone. You can get the latter anywhere, nothing special about it.

Yes trolls and shills generate clicks while everyone outraged by ignorance, dishonesty or personally attacks chimes in 20:1 for every bit of mindless trolling but SA and Yahoo has a cartel monopoly and enormous economies of scale in that space - It's pointless to try to compete by introducing trolls and shills here.

TMC's disruptive innovation IS intolerance of that kind of conduct. There is more than plenty left to debate between people Trying to add value and to get it right without blatant trolls to worry about that are Trying to get it wrong.

As far as the long term members go there is nothing left to guesswork here. Hint: The like/dislike system is a useful guide to quality control in hard data.

So why watch and cringe when and if you can just restore TMC-ness to TMC in a matter of minutes? In the name of rational self interest, Act Please.

Anyone up for a like dislike poll on this request ?

 

[Lump]

Julian, many of us did incredibly well owning\trading TSLA long before you showed up, why don't you start your own site?

 

[Gerasimental]

I'm getting embarrassed by the language and conduct of some of those on 'my' side (bull side).

Not every short is a troll or shill, and they are also not all manipulative and hell-bent on the destruction of Tesla and impoverishment of its investors for their own gain or to satisfy some lust for the suffering of others. To claim, or imply, otherwise is paranoid and insult to our intelligence.

Julian, your totalitarian tone is almost worrisome and you megalomaniac personality (or at least projection of your personality onto this forum) quite unpleasant. Please do start a blog in which you post all of your correct calls on the stock price - you will have full control and can moderate to your heart's content. From what I can tell, you are wrong about the silent majority by the way. You do have a bunch of cheerleaders though, I'll give you that.

EDIT: I'd like to mention that there are shorts that I see as pure pollution here. ValueSeeker, and that weird Fukuta guy come to mind. There are others who are very borderline. A few are posters whose input I appreciate.

 

[vgrinshpun]

@Lump, can you refrain from constantly harassing Julian? I would like to read his posts here, regardless of your prominently displayed feelings toward him.

This is getting out of hand - more than 50% of posts listed on the recent activity page of your profile are dedicated to snarky/disparaging/mocking remarks aimed against Julian.

Thank you.

 

[BornToFly]

Getting back to the point of the thread, it doesn't look like the shareholder's meeting is on Wall Street's radar. Looking at the options chain, the cost of puts/calls is nothing compared to what it was going into the earning report. If the news on Friday is particularly good or bad, I think it will trickle into the news, but otherwise I think it will be a non-event with little impact on the SP.

 

[skljsd329832]

Julian, many of us did incredibly well owning\trading TSLA long before you showed up, why don't you start your own site?

Moderators, site owners.

This and the post above it is your alternative choice of TMC content to the one suggested by my proposal here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I'm going to drop this topic now. As for the direction of TMC, you have my recommendations and while I care about this community and hope you choose wisely, which fork in the road you wish to take for TMC is entirely yours to determine. Fingers crossed.

 

[Johan]

Traditionally the shareholders meeting hasn't brought on any important or substantial news or catalysts. This doesn't mean however that this year's meeting can't do that. Is there not some kind of agenda beforehand, especially with regard to petitions that are to be discussed/voted on? Anyone attendig have acces to such an agenda?

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't know how to send a private message on this new layout, but would be interested in hearing about your poker side. I also play and have played semi professionally, though since I'm in the US it's been quite a while since I've been able to play online

Top right hand corner, 4 symbols: avatar (yours is blank), down arrow in a box, bell, magnifying glass. Click avatar, choose conversation.

 

[skljsd329832]

I'm getting embarrassed by the language and conduct of some of those on 'my' side (bull side).

Not every short is a troll or shill, and they are also not all manipulative and hell-bent on the destruction of Tesla and impoverishment of its investors for their own gain or to satisfy some lust for the suffering of others. To claim, or imply, otherwise is paranoid and insult to our intelligence.

Julian, your totalitarian tone is almost worrisome and you megalomaniac personality (or at least projection of your personality onto this forum) quite unpleasant. Please do start a blog in which you post all of your correct calls on the stock price - you will have full control and can moderate to your heart's content. From what I can tell, you are wrong about the silent majority by the way. You do have a bunch of cheerleaders though, I'll give you that.

I would agree with your straw man but straw man it is. There are exactly 3 and two half distinct TMC accounts that concern me (and very clearly many others besides me). Two of them are quite likely sock puppets of one individual. Nobody (especially me) is painting broad brush strokes.

 

[Gerardf]

Your argument would make sense if all I did was win 1 big tournament, but I didn't. I won my money steadily over 5 years playing high volume relatively low variance games. The odds of me just being lucky for 5 years is like you rolling a dice every day and ending up having hit 6 1/3rd of the time after 5 years. I appreciate the compliment of my accomplishment apparently being so impressive you don't even believe me, thanks guys.

You honestly seem to feel that your accomplishments on winning a lot of money playing online poker should impress us and give your posting on this forum more credibility. To my opinion you could not be more wrong. Let me explain it more clearly this time.

Again, this is not a poker forum.
In poker the goal of a player is to do whatever it takes to get the money from the other players. A poker player will bluff, tell lies and spread misinformation (maybe comparable to spreading Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt) in an egoistic effort NOT to make the WHOLE table better, but to take the money away FROM the other players at the table and into THEIR wallet. That is the purpose of the game.

This forum is maybe like a table. But unlike a poker table it is a table where we have very smart well respected contributors who are sharing their experience to help the whole table of TSLA investors win, not them as a single player, and certainly not at the cost of the other 'players' on the table.

So actually your post trying to get credibility on this forum was for me a sign to be extremely careful in trusting your intentions of posting here. Maybe for you speculating in TSLA is like a poker game. The disrespect you have shown to some very well respected posters in various treads only supported that. So do not be so surprised that some here doubt your intentions and do not show you much respect.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Meanwhile everyone is missing the apparent buying opportunity this morning...