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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Oh yeah. Current equity issuances are small and the dilution effect is minimal compared to the value of having the needed capital. But if Tesla issued, *for example*, a $30 billion dollar capital raise entirely in the form of equity, it would certainly cause you to calculate a lower value for the stock *per share* than if they funded their capital needs entirely from internal profits.

Indeed that may be true, if something like that were actually contemplated. More realistically, when considering the huge demand for the Model 3 based on reservations, the share price would likely falter, if production were ramped up solely at the pace allowed by profits from current products. The market expects Tesla to do what is necessary to deliver Model 3's fairly soon at a rapid pace, and that likely requires external funding. That done through equity raising need not be paid back and adds no interest expense. It increases the net assets of the company. Its use is a sound strategy for a rapidly growing company that must match production with known demand.
 
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Here's another way to put this. Don't you think the insiders in Tesla wish that they hadn't had to dilute the stock by making the IPO back at $16/share? If they could have raised that capital through a low-interest loan, they could have eventually paid for it by issuing stock at $250/share... obviously they needed the capital and that was the best way to raise it, though.

Dilution is a real issue, it's just massively outweighed by the value of *having the capital you need*.
or even another way to look at this - Elon is on record saying he can see Tesla with Apple's valuation in 2025...

2016 data:
Tesla - $220/share x 142,000,000 shares: or about $31 Billion

Apple - $97/share x 5.48 Billion shares: or about $530 Billion

So either Tesla will be trading at about $3,850/share; they could issue an additional 2.6 Billion shares (now that's a capital raise!) or some combination of both.

This is not the first, nor will it be the last capital raise, and it's a rather small one at that.
 
or even another way to look at this - Elon is on record saying he can see Tesla with Apple's valuation in 2025...

2016 data:
Tesla - $220/share x 142,000,000 shares: or about $31 Billion

Apple - $97/share x 5.48 Billion shares: or about $530 Billion

So either Tesla will be trading at about $3,850/share; they could issue an additional 2.6 Billion shares (now that's a capital raise!) or some combination of both.

This is not the first, nor will it be the last capital raise, and it's a rather small one at that.
Yes. There's a sense in which there's a specific amount of capital they need, they have to get it one way or another in order to avoid going under. If Tesla issues an additional 2.6 billion shares, then TSLA isn't a great investment right now; the stock will be worth the same amount then as it is now. Whereas if it'll be trading at $3850, that's a great investment. Dilution matters!

Obviously, I believe Tesla will make every effort to finance its expansion through internal income or cheap loans, and will issue equity only when that is not a reasonably-priced option. Tesla has already financed quite a lot of expansion through internal income. This should get much easier when Model 3 starts shipping.
 
I find the price action today to be strange. Are we really setting up to have a fantastic opportunity for both longs and shorts to do $5 range bound trading, or it's going to end up bad for someone.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is at it again with their anti-Tesla FUD: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Bank Of America: Tesla's Stock Headed To $155

And here’s what they said in 2013: Bank Of America: There Are 300,000 Reasons That Tesla Is Massively Overvalued
 
Can we get a new thread about dilution please? I'm trying to figure out my day trades here. The stock is down .7% right now, how long before we see a new ATH? Keep the answers short please.

With more and more dilution in the pipe, the ATH is remote IMO. For a trader, what you can do is buy low sell high or sell high buy low. The B&H shareholders will be hurt by Elon Musk the most.
 
Awesome. Usually take BoA's price target and double it... so $310, here we come...

Lucky for the BofA analyst that he's not paid based on the accuracy of his PTs

He's been wrong since $35 in 2012.
Me, on the other hand, I've been right since $35 in 2012. Ha

I will give the analyst kudos for being temporarily right during the Market sell off in Q1 this year.
 
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