Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[austinEV]

Tesla autopilot instructions demand that a driver keeps his hands on the steering wheel. I wonder if Tesla can determine whether Brown did so.

I don't think it's relevant. Unless he needed to steer to avoid the accident it doesn't matter. His foot needed to hit the brake. Here are the situations and their avoidance strategies:

1) Autopilot: Foot to brake
2) Cruise control: Foot to brake
3) manual driving: Foot to brake

So why is this an autopilot issue?

 

[mmd]

Which regulators in what governing area? The world is a pretty big place.

For Google's self driving cars, it was NHTSA. Has any regulator in any country tested or qualified Tesla's or Mobileye's AP?

Google’s driverless cars are now legally the same as a human driver

"We agree with Google its [self-driving vehicle] will not have a 'driver' in the traditional sense that vehicles have had drivers during the last more than one hundred years," the letter reads. "If no human occupant of the vehicle can actually drive the vehicle, it is more reasonable to identify the "driver" as whatever (as opposed to whoever) is doing the driving."

The decision by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration marks a huge moment for Google and the rest of the auto industry as it races to build the first fully autonomous motor vehicle. While most other carmakers are building their vehicles with steering wheels, brake pedals and other machinery in mind, Google imagines that its robot car will have none of these things.

Another link:
One Giant Leap for Car-Kind? Google’s Autonomous Vehicles Get OK to Stand In for Humans | DMV.org Articles

 

[DaveT]

Used the info from Police Beat and google maps to find the location.

 

[Papafox]

There's a misconception that Tesla radar can't see stationary objects. I think the misconception started because air traffic control radars use software to remove stationary objects from the controllers screens. My Model S on autopilot stops reliably when there is a vehicle stopped ahead of me. Where the confusion comes in is corner cases where a vehicle is stopped on the side of the road, the vehicle the Tesla is following goes around this vehicle, but because of traffic the Tesla cannot go around. This was the setup for the Traffic Aware Cruise Control accident when lane-keeping was turned off. I suspect if lane-keeping was turned on, the Tesla would have made the decision soon enough that the vehicle prevented passing it while staying within the lane, and the Tesla would have stopped.

I have little doubt that Tesla engineers will devise a solution to this type of broadside semi-truck accident in the future. Since our Tesla's are currently operating with Beta software and driver oversight is mandatory, the driver remains ultimately responsible for the outcome, sad as the situation may be.

 

[mmd]

People run into large objects all the time in vehicles without autopilot. Your speculation that this was autopilot related is completely unfounded.

No, I didn't mention AP in my sentence. Please don't imagine things that were not said. Whoever or whatever is in control of the car ought to watch out for road hazards. That's why we have road signs alerting drivers of cross-traffic ahead. If the Model S hit the tail end of the truck, then the car should have had plenty of time to react and slow down or stop. The speed of the car must be considered, like was it speeding at the time of crash? Does AP allow someone to drive over speed limit?

So, I'm not dismissing anything. But FredTMC is,who seems already convinced that the truck was at fault and the accident was unavoidable. This fault or no-fault is a minor thing. A life was lost, and that's more serious.

 

[Curt Renz]

I don't think it's relevant. Unless he needed to steer to avoid the accident it doesn't matter. His foot needed to hit the brake. Here are the situations and their avoidance strategies:

1) Autopilot: Foot to brake
2) Cruise control: Foot to brake
3) manual driving: Foot to brake

So why is this an autopilot issue?

Good point. He did not hit the brake. Whether he had his hands on the steering wheel would provide another clue as to his degree of attention.

As you imply, the autopilot instructions make it clear that the system is not yet fully autonomous and should not be expected to to avoid all collisions. It provides assistance, but the instructions make it clear that human driver still must make the ultimate decisions.

The after hours price is currently only a couple of dollars under the low during the regular session. The market appears to be reacting more rationally than in Tesla's earlier days.

 

[Jayjs20]

I say bad news fatigue is the reason why it hasn't taken more of a nosedive, in combination of the delivery numbers literally within a few days.

 

[tanner]

So are we hoping for a rebound? Don't know if it'll break $205 in premarket. If it does, it will likely nosedive.

 

[tanner]

Good point. He did not hit the brake. Whether he had his hands on the steering wheel would provide another clue as to his degree of attention.

As you imply, the autopilot instructions make it clear that the system is not yet fully autonomous and should not be expected to to avoid all collisions. It provides assistance, but the instructions make it clear that human driver still must make the ultimate decisions.

The after hours price is currently only a couple of dollars under the low during the regular session. The market appears to be reacting more rationally than in Tesla's earlier days.

By "earlier days", do you mean just last week when the suspension news hit and TSLA tanked from ~$220 at the close to a low of ~$189 in after hours? That wasn't too long ago.

 

[Bgarret]

Holy crap! How did you even remember that? Sad indeed. Clearly a case of someone gaining too much confidence in AP.[/QUOTE

You've been living on the edge of ignore for a while MMD, but accusing the deceased of incompetence and hubris. That is wretched excess. Trolling a man's death. Classy.

 

[FredTMC]

No, I didn't mention AP in my sentence. Please don't imagine things that were not said. Whoever or whatever is in control of the car ought to watch out for road hazards. That's why we have road signs alerting drivers of cross-traffic ahead. If the Model S hit the tail end of the truck, then the car should have had plenty of time to react and slow down or stop. The speed of the car must be considered, like was it speeding at the time of crash? Does AP allow someone to drive over speed limit?

So, I'm not dismissing anything. But FredTMC is,who seems already convinced that the truck was at fault and the accident was unavoidable. This fault or no-fault is a minor thing. A life was lost, and that's more serious.

Yes. truck was at fault since the news report indicates charges were pending and clearly the truck was blocking oncoming traffic!

Let me repeat that... The truck was blocking oncoming highway traffic!

Of course the tesla has the right-of-way on its highway lane. It's HIS lane

Now clearly the trucker didn't see the tesla and trucker failed to yield.

Likewise, the tesla driver didn't see the truck in his lane in time to brake or avoid the full length of a perpendicular tractor and trailer across the lanes of the highway. Looks like the tesla would've had to completely leave his lane and maybe even the highway to avoid the length of the semi truck.

Finally, I will say that it's possible but not likely that the tesla was significantly speeding. The car logs would indicate that. The police interview didn't cite that reason and tesla motors would've known that too. So, we can rule out "gross speeding".

The report indicated "charges pending". Logically who is the more likely party to be charged based on what we know? The car in its lane or the truck blocking a highway lane??? Really?

 

[Curt Renz]

Quite sadly, nearly 100 people in America and 3000 globally are killed in road vehicles every day. Autonomous vehicles should eventually greatly reduce this but not entirely eliminate it.

Most automakers do not put out the word of interest by the NHTSA until a recall is announced. The NHTSA took over six weeks to determine that a preliminary evaluation would begin in this case and informed Tesla. Tesla followed up the next day with a public announcement.

My expectation is that this will result in the NHTSA reminding the public to follow autopilot instructions and remain the ultimate controllers of their cars, just as has long been the case with cruise control.

 

[BornToFly]

Story on NBC nightly news. No real details. No mention of the truck. Just that there was a fatality with auto pilot and government investigation.

 

[JRP3]

No, I didn't mention AP in my sentence. Please don't imagine things that were not said.

You certainly mentioned AP in your other posts, and implicated that it was at fault:

Unfortunate, but not entirely unexpected. Tesla AP has been having small issues for a while, just not fatal until this.

Did you suddenly change your mind?

 

[Drumheller]

I grew up in Indiana and have traveled many hours on the divided highways there, and some in Ohio. Based on the information available and the picture of the intersection, I think it's safe to say the accident was caused by the truck driver.

However, if you've driven along those divided highways and have seen semis merge or cross one, you know it's a relatively slow moving object. Slow enough that the AP seems to have considered it a stationary object. If the driver did not brake, then the driver was not looking ahead.

Being that Tesla has made it very clear that Auto-Pilot is in beta and the driver is expected to keep hands on the wheel and pay attention, I do not think Auto-Pilot can be blamed for this accident. From a software development point of view (my field), it is a failure of the software to account for this scenario and will need to be adjusted for in future releases.

It is a shame someone died in this situation.

 

[aznt1217]

Do people not fact check anymore. The guy from Ohio (brown) is NOT the same in this tragic incident which occurred in Florida. If I'm wrong please link me to a definitive source.

 

[MartinAustin]

Very sad to hear about the loss of the driver in that accident. Yes, Autopilot is not finished or marketed as being 100% capable of driving the car, but there are going to be times when it can't help at all. Tesla's disclaimers and cautioning seem appropriate for the cutting edge nature of the system. The question that may never be answered is, why was the brake pedal never pressed. This probably played a crucial role.

As usual CNBC and other media outlets take "Tesla," "Autopilot," "death" and "NHTSA investigation" and throw them into a quick report along with the sentencing - which is "the stock is down" - and leave it at that. Their team of nattering naybobs were quick to segue into a TSLA hit piece, one of them even saying "Tesla has had so many problems, what with batteries exploding" - batteries exploding!!! He actually said that. It's always worth pointing out that Tesla doesn't advertise on CNBC, whereas lots of other auto manufacturers do. If they follow their normal direction, CNBC will probably never finish this story - just as they never finished the story about the fraudulent suspension reports. (but it sure was fun to say "Tesla," "NHTSA investigation" and "stock down" on that day). While I frequently watch CNBC every weekday, it doesn't make them more endearing that they exclude so many facts from their reporting, nor provide corrections when they are shown to have been too quick to judge.

Autopilot has been out nearly a year now, and perhaps dozens or hundreds of accidents have been avoided while it was turned on - some of which might have been fatal accidents. If you're a TV or web journalist trying to increase your viewership it is hard for good news like that to get prioritised high enough to report.

The fault lies with the truck driver, no matter how you look at this. It swerved in front of oncoming car(s). Bringing Autopilot into this is 100% clearly an attempt to make Tesla look bad.

TSLA only down 2-3% after hours, I'm willing to conject it won't fall further - mostly because the incident happened a month ago and investors know any pertinent information is already out. (for example... the truck driver was charged!)

I think Tesla won't release deliveries figures tomorrow, because they simply haven't compiled them yet. I'm continuing to think it will be in time for trading on Tuesday - whether it's on Monday, or Tuesday morning, hard to say.

I was planning to increase my TSLA holding tomorrow. This news, while tragic, won't change that.

 

[bulbasaur]

Is anyone else concerned about a recall of all model S's? The Bloomberg article suggested it was likely. I'm assuming a recall would bring us down to $160 or so.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Is anyone else concerned about a recall of all model S's? The Bloomberg article suggested it was likely. I'm assuming a recall would bring us down to $160 or so.

That makes zero sense. In the worst case they'd OTA disable AP. Which also isn't going to happen.
No Recall is going to fix bad truck drivers and (possibly) inattentive Tesla drivers.

 

[Jayjs20]

Recall to do what? Nothing about AP is mechanical.