Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Jayjs20]

True. I'm not trying to talk you into one way or another, I'm just sharing.

And I believe suspensiongate brought it from 235 to 215(?). The announcement of the intent of buying solarcity brought it down to 190. Brexit only brought it down a few points, but recovered almost all of it within the first day.

 

[CHGolferJim]

It's years I contend the WSJ and Barron's will only prevent you from making
Money.

If we can't trust WSJ and Barron's for solid financial reporting, where do we go in your opinion?

 

[Jayjs20]

This was when it broke... 6/21 View attachment 185098

I'm not sure why you're telling me that. 6/21 was the announcement of the solar city acquisition. I was there. I still remember the straight line down during AH.

 

[austinEV]

Thx

I think you misunderstood me.

I'd be disappointed if "shared mobility" isn't ONE of the topics in the master plan...

Clearly, Energy is a big topic. Solar, batteries, peak shaving. Sustainability with Energy generation etc

I am sorry for my harsh tone. I am just puzzled by the mobility story. Step 1) is full autonomy. Step 2) is monetized shared mobility. But by step 1 already makes you the most valuable company in the world. Its like step 1) transmute lead into gold 2) sell jewelry. Yeah, 2 is great and all just a weird focus.

 

[tanner]

I'm not sure why you're telling me that. 6/21 was the announcement of the solar city acquisition. I was there. I still remember the straight line down during AH.

Ah crap... You're right, got the two confused. Regardless, I made some good profit off of that.

 

[Papafox]

OK, who is going to tell me that dynamically stable (upswings and downswings keep dampening and trending toward almost horizontal SP movement just below, just above, just below the red/green line is normal trading of shorts and longs, and no game playing is currently underway? This is the third trading day in the past two weeks where we've seen the SP settle on near-horizontal movement with minor bumps up and down through the red/green line. Where there's a pattern, there's a reason for that pattern.

 

[Irishjugg]

We are far away from it. Consider the improvement the last year and how far we still are from being able to not pay attention and just sleep in the backseat or watch a movie.

I very much doubt that the HW sensors in the current cars are enough to reach that goal, too. My guess is atleast 10 years before we have fully autonomous driving that is also approved with regulations. Elon's across the country claim in was it two years seems to me unrealistic and I wonder why he made it.

Almost certainly because he thinks it is accurate.
It sends like many people here are over estimating the amount of work to get it from where we are, to fully autonomous. Musk says 2 years, my guess is 3.

Happy to gamble on this if anyone wants to.

 

[Drax7]

Do your own research , don't relie on the wsj's opinions or politically adjusted views
Or for that matter on the opinions of analysts

For instance focus on some of these

Do you understand how to read the firms financials , understand
It's business model and how to derive an intrinsic value

Do you like the firms product and think ithey will have wide mass appeal.

Select business- to-consumer products that meet a basic
Human need .

See if The firm has pricing power and a moat that allows it have a sustainable
Advantage , and proprietary technology that gives it a lead.

When I first saw the Apple iPhone I immediately felt it would have huge
Mass appeal .... The rest is history . Barron's and WSJ thought otherwise
Back then . Similarly with the tesla model s . Similarly with Facebook
And visa .

Netflix and Google too, though both shaked me out .

 

[Citizen-T]

These past few weeks remind me of the couple of weeks after the first Model S caught on fire, only...without the hit to the share price? Strange times.

I'm just holding through this, Elon is fightin' mad---the way he was during the Broder event. If you recall, the New York Times reporter brought a spiral notebook to a computer log fight and got his ass handed to him. This time Elon's got a whole fleet's worth of big data and it seems like it is open season on "journalists".

I know Tesla is fighting on a lot of fronts right now, but you know...something about pioneers with arrows in their backs. If they weren't under attack you could be sure that they weren't really changing anything. I like Elon's comment a while back about how he doesn't want to outsource the hard stuff. Doing the hard stuff is where the value is at. As shareholders, ostensibly we want Tesla to be valuable, right? To become valuable, they have to do the hard stuff.

Just let Elon do his thing.

 

[tanner]

On the topic of very short term SP discussion: SP seams to have a very STRONG resistance level correlated to the VWAP - each time it breaks it, it gets slammed back down. Total sideways action this afternoon, kind of disappointing. I was hoping for a strong finish.

 

[TSLADream]

I just saw the cnbc video on Fast money. They were talking more bullish on Tesla. Cory Johnson on Bloomberg was again criticizing Elon for the SEC investigation. I do believe if the bulls stay united the bears are going to be destroyed in the next few weeks.

 

[Curt Renz]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one would be willing to return shares today and be compensated with $215 for each share.

 

[austinEV]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one is going to return shares today to be compensated with $215 for each share.

Sure, but if that was the case it is an implied free put at 215, valid until some time into the future. OOM now, but a a liability nonetheless.

(I don't believe this will come to anything, all auto manufacturer's products involve fatalities sadly.)

 

[NOLA_Mike]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one would be willing to return shares today and be compensated with $215 for each share.

Yes, the SEC should force all the subscribers to the secondary to immediately forfeit their stock for $215.

I watched that interview. Harvey looked to me like he checked out about 10 years ago and was just happy to be there and tout whatever nonsense someone paid him to tout. I know that's probably not the case, but I couldn't help think that the whole time he was on and the round table of CNBC "experts" egged him on to bad mouth Tesla the whole time, bragging at one point how they managed to bring the stock price in to the red.

Mike

 

[Curt Renz]

Sure, but if that was the case it is an implied free put at 215, valid until some time into the future. OOM now, but a a liability nonetheless.

(I don't believe this will come to anything, all auto manufacturer's products involve fatalities sadly.)

True, but I believe that the SEC would impose a time limit for share redemption.

 

[vgrinshpun]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one would be willing to return shares today and be compensated with $215 for each share.

According to Ron Baron's interview couple of weeks back, there were more offers on the table than what Elon chose the secondary offering size to be. I do not think there will be volunteers to surrender TSLA shares.

We are going to see relentless run-up in share price in coming weeks due to recall of shares lent by institutional shareholders to short sellers. At the same time, based on my review of the NHTSA request of information data, they basically asking for a list of all cars (VINs) sold with AutoPilot, all data on accidents, all data on OTA updates to AutoPilot - essentially all information based on which Elon concluded that AutoPilot is so far safer than human drivers. I have hard time to believe that NHTSA will come to a conclusion different than engineers at Tesla. So while the SP continues its march up in the coming weeks due to recall of lent shares, the issue of AutoPilot safety will be officially resolved, and new details on TE released via the Master Plan Part II and GF party. With this background the SEC mumbling will be moot regardless of the merits (which it is without).

 

[dc_h]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one would be willing to return shares today and be compensated with $215 for each share.

Harvey Pitt, would appear to be a prototype for crony capitalist:
SEC Chairman Pitt Resigns Amid Webster Controversy

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The WSJ and a number of online "news sources" appear to be paying Yahoo and others to promote all links to articles about this BS for the entire day. Articles published this morning are appearing at the top of news feeds for no legitimate reason.
How is this not securities fraud?

 

[SBenson]

It puzzles me why Musk would even dignify WSJ with an interview.

"Keep Your Friends Close, But Your Enemies Closer"

 

[Papafox]

A couple of hours ago former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt told CNBC that if the SEC rules that Tesla disregarded disclosure requirements, the extreme remedy would be to require Tesla to take back shares from those who bought in the subsequent offering and refund their money.

Of course the share price for that offering was $215. Right now the price is nearly $225. No one would be willing to return shares today and be compensated with $215 for each share.

That's critically important.
Elon Musk normally shows little concern for the short-term trading of TSLA, but the SEC scrutiny has changed the situation. Enemies of Tesla and Musk are doubling-down with the FUD while Tesla is aggressively going after the FUD and getting ready to unleash the positives (secret plan 2 and gigafactory reveal). Bottom line: Tesla needs the SP to stay this high or climb because of the autopilot disclosure controversy and enemies of Tesla want it to fall for the same reason and lots of others. With Tesla actively in the long's court for the short term, I think the chances of TSLA falling to 215 anytime soon are very low unless something crazy happens. Expect good news at the 2Q ER (current production volume, plans for Q3 and Q4, M3 on schedule, etc.) to neutralize the bad news.