If the Model 3 is delayed, I would consider a used S. There will be some great values on used cars (especially with the withdrawal of the RVG). I generally prefer a car more the size of the Model 3.
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If the Model 3 is delayed, I would consider a used S. There will be some great values on used cars (especially with the withdrawal of the RVG). I generally prefer a car more the size of the Model 3.
Agreed that we will know in s couple months. It would be nice if TM had actually met or exceeded deliveries in the last few quarters and had more SCs in place.
My confidence level in H2 deliveries meeting guidance would be much higher.
Again, I hope my concerns are unfounded
dennis
Model S Plaid
The delivery misses in Q1 and Q2 were because of an inability to produce, not an inability to deliver.
Technically, yes. But it stems mostly from a 3rd row seat recall early in the quarter, and an inability to then deliver the much larger quantities then available at the end of the quarter. Part of the reason for that is that they were building Model X's early in the quarter and holding off deliveries until re-work could be finished. That's a bumper crop of X's then at the end of the quarter. Model S refresh also happened within the quarter, and that probably knocked things around a bit too.
With regards to X Yes?, I find his posts useful and I often see where he is coming from. His arguments are rooted in careful analysis of the present. I often wonder if he is missing the larger picture. Perhaps I'm too optimistic about Tesla's future but I think these short term shortcomings won't matter in a few years. I guess well see...
There is no question that the Solar City acquisition is a risky proposition and will require huge amounts of capital.
Over the past few weeks, I've been thinking a lot about Solar City and solar in general. I have come to personally believe that distributed solar on individual households is an uphill battle that will be difficult to win. I think the net metering rulings in Nevada and Arizona are a signal of what will be a growing trend. The bottom line is, a consumer with rooftop solar is always at a disadvantage. In most cases, he/she cannot live completely off grid even with several power walls in the garage. Access to the grid will in most cases remain vital and that gives the utilities a big advantage and a good deal of leverage. I have a 5 KW system which will do fine most summer days, but what about a string of cloudy days in the winter? Even with 10 power walls in my garage, I want access to the grid for piece of mind. And utilities can charge me whatever they want for access to the grid in the long term, as net metering laws phase out.
The other thing to realize, which you all of course know already, is that the cost curve for solar continues to drop. As it does, utilities will shift increasingly toward solar utilization and way from fossil fuels. So I think the future of solar will be more at the utilities level rather than individual consumers. Who will utilities go to for their massive solar farms with battery back up? Its not going to be the mom and pop solar installer at the mall. Its not going to be Chinese solar panel maker without integrated services.
With Silevo's technology, the solar panel factory in Buffalo, the gigafactory in Nevada for batteries, potentially some new surprise on the inverter front, Solar City's team of installers, and most importantly Elon as the ultimate marketer, Tesla will have amassed a Solar juggernaut with vertical integration leaps and bounds beyond what any other company can offer. Their costs will be the lowest as a result. All of a sudden, utilities, large universities, and large corporations will be flocking to Tesla like customers come to SpaceX to put their satellites into orbit. The potential is ENORMOUS!!!. Its easy to get caught up in the short term financials where X Yes? has made many valid points. The question is can Tesla somehow get beyond these short term struggles and bring to fruition the ULTIMATE VISION.
We're seeing a shift... Even in the face of one negative article after another, the stock price is holding steady. Why? People are realizing that Tesla is onto something. It may take a few years but solar will dominate and Tesla is meticulously amassing all the key pieces of the puzzle. These short term foibles (e.g. delivery miss, autopilot crashes) serve as a smoke screen. In a way, they work to Tesla's advantage because they make competitors hesitate to invest in the future because they see Tesla struggling. As the future becomes the present, they will see the writing on the wall. By then it will be too late.
With regard to the short term, I hope Tesla will find its way.
There is no question that the Solar City acquisition is a risky proposition and will require huge amounts of capital.
Over the past few weeks, I've been thinking a lot about Solar City and solar in general. I have come to personally believe that distributed solar on individual households is an uphill battle that will be difficult to win. I think the net metering rulings in Nevada and Arizona are a signal of what will be a growing trend. The bottom line is, a consumer with rooftop solar is always at a disadvantage. In most cases, he/she cannot live completely off grid even with several power walls in the garage. Access to the grid will in most cases remain vital and that gives the utilities a big advantage and a good deal of leverage. I have a 5 KW system which will do fine most summer days, but what about a string of cloudy days in the winter? Even with 10 power walls in my garage, I want access to the grid for piece of mind. And utilities can charge me whatever they want for access to the grid in the long term, as net metering laws phase out.
The other thing to realize, which you all of course know already, is that the cost curve for solar continues to drop. As it does, utilities will shift increasingly toward solar utilization and way from fossil fuels. So I think the future of solar will be more at the utilities level rather than individual consumers. Who will utilities go to for their massive solar farms with battery back up? Its not going to be the mom and pop solar installer at the mall. Its not going to be Chinese solar panel maker without integrated services.
With Silevo's technology, the solar panel factory in Buffalo, the gigafactory in Nevada for batteries, potentially some new surprise on the inverter front, Solar City's team of installers, and most importantly Elon as the ultimate marketer, Tesla will have amassed a Solar juggernaut with vertical integration leaps and bounds beyond what any other company can offer. Their costs will be the lowest as a result. All of a sudden, utilities, large universities, and large corporations will be flocking to Tesla like customers come to SpaceX to put their satellites into orbit. The potential is ENORMOUS!!!. Its easy to get caught up in the short term financials where X Yes? has made many valid points. The question is can Tesla somehow get beyond these short term struggles and bring to fruition the ULTIMATE VISION.
We're seeing a shift... Even in the face of one negative article after another, the stock price is holding steady. Why? People are realizing that Tesla is onto something. It may take a few years but solar will dominate and Tesla is meticulously amassing all the key pieces of the puzzle. These short term foibles (e.g. delivery miss, autopilot crashes) serve as a smoke screen. In a way, they work to Tesla's advantage because they make competitors hesitate to invest in the future because they see Tesla struggling. As the future becomes the present, they will see the writing on the wall. By then it will be too late.
With regard to the short term, I hope Tesla will find its way.
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In thinking about how the X60D and S60 will impact gross margins, I think those who proposed only a minimal or small impact are more correct. Here's my train of thought:
- back in 2014, ~15% of model S owners were previously prius owners (people who valued efficiency, environmental impact, and operating costs over other features). They chose the model S despite costing more than their usual budget, and despite the car being physically bigger than the prius, because there literally wasn't anything else out there.
- 2015 was just more of the same.
- come Mar 2016, car buyers now have a choice (model 3), and the pool of buyers who wanted something smaller or cheaper AND could wait did so.
- The buyers who wanted an S90D or X90D or higher would not have changed their minds regardless of what cheaper model got introduced, as they valued range/performance over features.
- The S75 and X75D buyers were more value concious, and this is the only group which would be split because of the 60kwh battery option. The reduced gross margin will come only from the buyers who switched. But they will be counter-balanced by the model 3 buyers who decided to splurge towards an S60 rather than wait for the model 3 AND new model X60D owners who wanted an electric CUV, but were below the $84k purchase threshold for the model X.
It's the act of appealing to a larger pool of buyers (improves production efficiency) that makes me think the gross margins won't be significantly impacted.
- back in 2014, ~15% of model S owners were previously prius owners (people who valued efficiency, environmental impact, and operating costs over other features). They chose the model S despite costing more than their usual budget, and despite the car being physically bigger than the prius, because there literally wasn't anything else out there.
- 2015 was just more of the same.
- come Mar 2016, car buyers now have a choice (model 3), and the pool of buyers who wanted something smaller or cheaper AND could wait did so.
- The buyers who wanted an S90D or X90D or higher would not have changed their minds regardless of what cheaper model got introduced, as they valued range/performance over features.
- The S75 and X75D buyers were more value concious, and this is the only group which would be split because of the 60kwh battery option. The reduced gross margin will come only from the buyers who switched. But they will be counter-balanced by the model 3 buyers who decided to splurge towards an S60 rather than wait for the model 3 AND new model X60D owners who wanted an electric CUV, but were below the $84k purchase threshold for the model X.
It's the act of appealing to a larger pool of buyers (improves production efficiency) that makes me think the gross margins won't be significantly impacted.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Well, looks like they have decided to go public with a real product demo:
Graphene batteries may slash your phone recharge time to 15 minutes
Graphene batteries may slash your phone recharge time to 15 minutes
Looks like great technology. What's the negative for using graphene batteries on EVs?
Edit: looks like price
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Price will come down with scale of manufacturing. Also the reason why the inventor decides to do this in China first among other reasons. This is not all of it though...
So now that the secret is out, does the rest of the world have similar offerings? I am not in the battery business so I don't know much. Color me surprised if some US lab hasn't already come out with something similar.
I do see value of solar at the utilities more than at the residential. However, Elons take on Silevo seems to be focused more on residential side with the aesthetics and better efficiency while costing a bit more than current Chinese panels.
I also think utilities need batteries with or without solar as they don't have a requirement to only conserve solar generated electricity. In reality, all of the solar produced electricity will be used as the demand is much higher during the day. Thus, no tighter integration of battery and Solar panels is required at the utilities.
Why assume? ISIS makes their money off of stolen oil, that's where a huge amount of their money comes from, full stop. Oil is a global, fungible commodity which means that demand anywhere is the same as demand everywhere. So some proportion of every dollar spent on oil goes into ISIS' pockets. Were oil demand to drop, and jhm's posts have shown that it only takes a small drop to tank the price of oil (what was it, a ~2% oversupply which crashed the price by 70% earlier this year?), this directly harms the bottom line of terrorist organizations which fund themselves from oil, such as ISIS. It doesn't even take any special tracing of money through various Saudi families which may or may not have errant sons using some portion of their profits to fund extreme activities. The money goes directly from gasoline pump -> global oil demand -> ISIS.
Then there all the other even worse stuff that happens when you burn oil, like the 7 million worldwide deaths from pollution every year. But we'll leave that for another day.
Gerasimental
Member
And well-fixed indeed, given the constant "but wind/solar kills birds/turtles!" from the anti-environment crowd, who only decide to start caring about the environmental impact of things when things with much larger environmental impacts are being displaced. Somehow you get these articles about wind or solar concentrators killing birds, and the same articles don't mention the ~50x as many birds killed by fossil fuels (or in the case of solar, ~600x).
On an unrelated note and to add a bit of relevance to the recent "discussion" of this thread, I see that this thread has turned back into a "lets all talk about people instead of ideas" thread again? If your only reason for posting is to talk about another person on the forum, do us all a favor and don't post it. It's a waste of everyone's time. Please bring new information with each post. Thank you all.
racer26
Active Member
Anybody got an idea what's driving the rally in premarket? I haven't spotted any new news that might get people excited. Or is it just clearer heads prevailing over yesterday's silliness?
jhm
Well-Known Member
To get a more current view of how the utilities are viewing distributed energy, you may want to consider this article:
Electric Utilities Prepare for a Grid Dominated by Renewable Energy
"Our monopoly days are coming to an end." -- NV Energy
The basic shift here is that renewables and especially distributed renewable now form the base of the system and utilities increasingly are there to add services around that.
Tesla Energy combined with SolarCity have the potential to be at the very center of this transformation. Without SolarCity, Tesla Energy is limited to just a battery supplier role. But integrated with solar, Tesla Energy can be an integrated solutions provider. Vertical integration is extremely valuable in a fast evolving industry because it is hard to anticipate which links in the supply chain will be most highly rewarded and the products themselves must be designed for optimal integration. So integration with SolarCity takes Tesla Energy to the core of this emerging new industry in a way that leaves competitors like LG Chem remote and less connected.
racer26
Active Member
Perhaps part of the rally is this:
Tesla Model 3 to have a real competitor in upcoming all-electric BMW 3 Series
Clearly illustrates how far ahead of the curve Tesla 3 is, when it's first real competitor isn't expected until 2020.
Tesla Model 3 to have a real competitor in upcoming all-electric BMW 3 Series
Clearly illustrates how far ahead of the curve Tesla 3 is, when it's first real competitor isn't expected until 2020.
Gerasimental
Member
Hasn't BMW's entire EV department just left the company, and hasn't BMW publicly said they were shelving their EV plans to focus on autonomy instead?
Something has been nagging at me regarding the plethora of negative Tesla articles currently on display - from Seeking Alpha (76+ a few days ago since SCTY bid) to the Fortune Feud to The Huffington Post's "Tesla's Worst Month Ever" meme - since when has HuffPost joined Fortune, Forbes, NYT and LA Times as Musk-haters? There have been very few articles in defense (Road and a Track) or even neutral. It's as bad of a barrage as I've seen since I started following in 2013.
It has been hypothesized here that this is a combination of short/Koch/oil/car/advertising bias cabal to depress Tesla share price. What if the opposite is true - what if it is bullish long-term investors trying to keep share prices artificially low to accumulate shares? If there was some known or suspected event that the Wall Street players anticipated, the best way to accumulate shares would be a FUD barrage. This goes to Curt's video he posts from time-to-time about Cramer's tips on market manipulation.
It would be interesting to see the put/call ratio recently.(OK...I looked, bit bearish. Put/Call Ratio for TSLA - TESLA MOTORS)
This is pure speculation, but it makes me wonder when I see a one-sided, full-throated condemnation of a company in such a concentrated manner over some fairly benign "headlines".
It has been hypothesized here that this is a combination of short/Koch/oil/car/advertising bias cabal to depress Tesla share price. What if the opposite is true - what if it is bullish long-term investors trying to keep share prices artificially low to accumulate shares? If there was some known or suspected event that the Wall Street players anticipated, the best way to accumulate shares would be a FUD barrage. This goes to Curt's video he posts from time-to-time about Cramer's tips on market manipulation.
It would be interesting to see the put/call ratio recently.(OK...I looked, bit bearish. Put/Call Ratio for TSLA - TESLA MOTORS)
This is pure speculation, but it makes me wonder when I see a one-sided, full-throated condemnation of a company in such a concentrated manner over some fairly benign "headlines".
Also should be considered is that Tesla could "rent" you out the extra kWh for a number of days (say you were going on holiday or a business trip). Make the costing unattractive to abuse but attractive enough to offer and get income for Tesla against the investment that they left in the car.
You guys are thinking way to hard on this. Save the tin foil hats. The negative articles are solely based on News. There have been unfortunate accidents and Tesla has released some inconvenient news. Even Drumph has kept his mouth shut in regards to Tesla.
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